Gyirmot SE and Csakvar face a tightly contested match, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 37 % for Gyirmot, 29 % for a draw and 34 % for Csakvar. The average goal expectation is 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals at 27 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14 % chance. Gyirmot, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded, while Csakvar, on the road, averages 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.1 % probability and Over 1.5 with a 73.1 % probability. The model’s pick remains a Gyirmot victory, reflecting the narrow margin and balanced form: Gyirmot’s recent loss streak contrasts with Csakvar’s two consecutive defeats, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
Gyirmot SE’s win over Csakvar 3-1 extended a mixed run, with the home side still coming off a defeat. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, at 37 % probability, proved correct, matching the actual result. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5, at 75.1 %, missed, while Over 1.5, at 73.1 %, hit. The expected total of 2.5 was surpassed, and the most likely score of 1-1 (27 %) did not materialise. Overall, the model’s call on the winner was accurate, but its over/under selections delivered one hit and one miss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gyirmot SE win✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Csakvar win✗ Miss
33.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gyirmot SE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.43
1.38
1.19
1.64
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.46
1.21
1.21
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
2.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Csakvar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Csakvar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.40
1.64
1.43
1.12
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.29
1.62
1.38
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.0%
Gyirmot SE goals ↓
Csakvar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
8.5%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
1
9.1%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.7%
8.3%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gyirmot SE goals (down), columns = Csakvar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Diosgyori VTK
1.78
Kecskeméti TE
1.70
Kazincbarcikai
1.63
Kozarmisleny FC
1.60
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.53
Csakvar
1.53
Gyirmot SE
1.38
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.38
BVSC
1.37
Fehérvár FC
1.30
Tiszakecske FC
1.30
Szeged 2011
1.20
Karcag SE
1.17
Szentlőrinc SE
1.10
Soroksar
1.10
Ajka
1.10
Gyirmot SE is 0.16 points worse than Csakvar in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kecskeméti TE
1.63
Diosgyori VTK
1.62
Kazincbarcikai
1.49
Csakvar
1.43
Soroksar
1.37
Kozarmisleny FC
1.27
Gyirmot SE
1.25
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.25
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.23
Fehérvár FC
1.23
Tiszakecske FC
1.23
BVSC
1.20
Szentlőrinc SE
1.17
Szeged 2011
0.97
Karcag SE
0.97
Ajka
0.77
Gyirmot SE is 0.18 goals worse than Csakvar in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Diosgyori VTK
0.97
BVSC
1.00
Kazincbarcikai
1.06
Fehérvár FC
1.10
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.13
Szeged 2011
1.13
Csakvar
1.23
Gyirmot SE
1.25
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.25
Kecskeméti TE
1.30
Kozarmisleny FC
1.33
Ajka
1.33
Karcag SE
1.37
Szentlőrinc SE
1.40
Tiszakecske FC
1.47
Soroksar
1.50
Gyirmot SE is 0.02 goals worse than Csakvar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gyirmot SE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.85
0.57
0.64
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Csakvar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Csakvar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.79
0.71
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.57
0.85
0.69
0.47
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gyirmot SE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gyirmot SE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.62
0.64
0.57
1.08
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Csakvar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Csakvar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.86
0.71
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.71
0.77
0.69
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gyirmot SE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Hungary: NB II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →