Gzira United are tipped to win this Malta Premier League clash, with a 54% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of Floriana taking the points. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12.3%. Gzira, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged zero goals scored and four conceded, while Floriana, on the road against a weaker side, have averaged two goals scored and two conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 83.4%, Over 1.5 at 76.8% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 74.4% and Under 3.5 at 70.8% (hit). Gzira’s recent form shows four straight defeats, while Floriana remain unbeaten in their last five matches. The predicted outcome is a home win.
Results analysis
Gzira United’s 1-0 win over Floriana extended a run of four straight defeats, while Floriana remained unbeaten in their last five. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win at 54% probability, and the call proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 1-0 (25% chance) matched reality. The Over 1.5 selection, at 76.8% probability, missed, whereas the Under 3.5 pick, with 70.8% probability, hit. The model’s total goals forecast of 2.7 was close to the actual tally of two, but the specific 1-1 outcome was not the most likely. Overall, the model’s favourite and key selections performed well, with only one over-1.5 miss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gzira United win✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gzira United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.83
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
2.00
0.78
2.00
0.80
2.00
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
3.00
-
-
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
42% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.88
1.00
0.25
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-0 ✓
10.3%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
Gzira United goals ↓
Floriana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.3%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
1
10%
12%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.8%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.8%
5.7%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.5%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gzira United goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Gzira United is 0.42 points better than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Gzira United is 0.62 goals better than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Gzira United is 0.27 goals better than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gzira United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.44
0.80
0.40
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gzira United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.17
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
58% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Gzira United's squad is €2m less valuable than Floriana's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Gzira United's attack is €1m less valuable than Floriana's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Gzira United and Floriana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Gzira United and Floriana have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →