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Gzira United vs Floriana Result & Analysis

Date: 16/10/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Gzira United
Gzira United
Vs
54%
26%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Gzira United are tipped to win this Malta Premier League clash, with a 54% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of Floriana taking the points. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12.3%. Gzira, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged zero goals scored and four conceded, while Floriana, on the road against a weaker side, have averaged two goals scored and two conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 83.4%, Over 1.5 at 76.8% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 74.4% and Under 3.5 at 70.8% (hit). Gzira’s recent form shows four straight defeats, while Floriana remain unbeaten in their last five matches. The predicted outcome is a home win.

Results analysis

Gzira United’s 1-0 win over Floriana extended a run of four straight defeats, while Floriana remained unbeaten in their last five. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win at 54% probability, and the call proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 1-0 (25% chance) matched reality. The Over 1.5 selection, at 76.8% probability, missed, whereas the Under 3.5 pick, with 70.8% probability, hit. The model’s total goals forecast of 2.7 was close to the actual tally of two, but the specific 1-1 outcome was not the most likely. Overall, the model’s favourite and key selections performed well, with only one over-1.5 miss.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gzira United win✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D22D00D04L31W33D00D21W40W30WH·RAD21/07A·RAD28/07A·WOL03/08H·WOL09/08H·SAN20/08A·GUD26/08H·MAR04/09A·HIB11/09H·PIE02/10A·SIR09/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.751.171.671.331.831.00
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.004.000.000.00
vs Similar (9)2.000.782.000.802.000.75
vs Weaker (1)3.003.00--3.003.00
Clean sheet %42% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W22D01L10W02L11DH·PET07/07A·PET14/07H·PIE20/08A·SIR27/08A·BIR03/09H·VAL10/09A·HAM01/10H·MOS08/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.881.000.250.501.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.200.800.500.000.001.33
vs Weaker (3)1.671.001.500.502.002.00
Clean sheet %38% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-0 ✓
10.3%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
Gzira United goals ↓
Floriana goals →
01234
07.7%5.3%3.1%1.0%0.3%
110%12%5.5%1.8%0.4%
210.0%9.8%4.8%1.6%0.4%
35.8%5.7%2.8%0.9%0.2%
42.5%2.5%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gzira United goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Gzira United is 0.42 points better than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Gzira United is 0.62 goals better than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Gzira United is 0.27 goals better than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D02L31W12L00D01L10W20WH·RAD21/07A·RAD28/07A·WOL03/08H·WOL09/08H·SAN20/08A·GUD26/08H·MAR04/09A·HIB11/09H·PIE02/10A·SIR09/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.670.670.670.67
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (9)0.780.440.800.400.750.50
vs Weaker (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W02L00D00D01L10WH·PET07/07A·PET14/07H·PIE20/08A·SIR27/08A·BIR03/09H·VAL10/09A·HAM01/10H·MOS08/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.500.750.000.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.000.400.000.000.000.67
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.500.000.002.00
Clean sheet %62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D00D02L00D21W00D20W30W10WH·RAD21/07A·RAD28/07A·WOL03/08H·WOL09/08H·SAN20/08A·GUD26/08H·MAR04/09A·HIB11/09H·PIE02/10A·SIR09/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.080.501.000.671.170.33
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (9)1.220.331.200.401.250.25
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %58% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D20W01L10W01L01LH·PET07/07A·PET14/07H·PIE20/08A·SIR27/08A·BIR03/09H·VAL10/09A·HAM01/10H·MOS08/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.380.250.250.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.200.400.500.000.000.67
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.000.502.000.00
Clean sheet %62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards83.4%--------
Over 1.576.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners74.4%--------
Under 3.570.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Gzira United's squad is €2m less valuable than Floriana's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Gzira United's attack is €1m less valuable than Floriana's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Gzira United and Floriana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Gzira United and Floriana have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
GU wins
0
Draws
0
FLO wins

Head-to-head

Gzira United vs Floriana · H/A from GU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22ASirens Vs GU0-3
02/10/22HGU Vs Pietà Hotspurs4-0
11/09/22AHibernians Vs GU1-2
04/09/22HGU Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
26/08/22AGudja United Vs GU3-3
20/08/22HGU Vs Santa Lucía3-1
09/08/22HGU Vs Wolfsberger AC0-4
03/08/22AWolfsberger AC Vs GU0-0
28/07/22ARadnicki NIS Vs GU2-2
21/07/22HGU Vs Radnicki NIS2-2

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/22HFLO Vs Mosta1-1
01/10/22AHamrun Spartans Vs FLO2-0
10/09/22HFLO Vs Valletta FC1-0
03/09/22ABirkirkara Vs FLO1-0
27/08/22ASirens Vs FLO2-2
20/08/22HFLO Vs Pietà Hotspurs2-0
14/07/22APetrocub Vs FLO1-0
07/07/22HFLO Vs Petrocub0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW1.75
HomeDLWDW1.50
AwayDDDWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%50%
AVG goals2.923.002.83
Over 1.5 %75%83%67%
Over 2.5 %67%67%67%
Over 3.5 %50%67%33%
Scored1.751.671.83
Conceded1.171.331.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet42%33%50%
Corners11.4010.0012.33
Cards8.608.508.67
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.12
HomeDWWD2.00
AwayLDLL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%50%0%
AVG goals1.621.252.00
Over 1.5 %50%50%50%
Over 2.5 %12%0%25%
Over 3.5 %12%0%25%
Scored0.751.000.50
Conceded0.880.251.50
BTTS25%25%25%
Clean Sheet38%75%0%
Corners7.508.007.00
Cards5.507.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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