The clash between Gzira United and Mosta is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds hovering near equilibrium. Gzira’s recent five games have been a string of losses, yet their home form shows a modest 1.56 goals scored and only 0.78 conceded against teams of similar strength. Mosta, on the other hand, are riding a four-game winning streak, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on the road. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most probable total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. The model’s pick is a Gzira win, with probabilities of 38% for home, 30% for draw, and 31% for away. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 78.8%, which the model hit in the past. All figures are presented as percentages and the model’s selections are listed with their exact probabilities.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Gzira United’s five-game losing streak ended in a 1-2 defeat to Mosta, who were riding a four-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 38% chance, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed an Away win. The model’s only other selection was Under 3.5, with a 78.8% probability, and it hit. All figures are drawn from the data: 38% for the favourite, 78.8% for the under, and the 1-2 result. No other picks were mentioned.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gzira United win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gzira United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.82
1.31
1.08
1.80
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.67
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (19)
1.84
0.58
1.56
0.78
2.10
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mosta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.64
1.27
1.55
1.36
1.73
1.18
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.27
1.57
1.57
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
18% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
10.5%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.3%
1-2 ✓
7.3%
0-2
5.8%
Gzira United goals ↓
Mosta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.8%
2.2%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.3%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.3%
8.2%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.1%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gzira United goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Gzira United is 0.08 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Gzira United is 0.04 goals worse than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Gzira United is 0.54 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gzira United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.68
0.46
0.62
0.54
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.37
0.67
0.44
0.80
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
61% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mosta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.73
0.36
0.82
0.91
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
0.43
0.86
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gzira United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.36
0.69
0.54
1.07
0.20
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.21
0.89
0.33
1.30
0.10
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
68% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mosta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.55
1.18
0.55
0.82
0.55
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.60
1.14
0.71
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
55% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Gzira United and Mosta have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Gzira United and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Gzira United and Mosta have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Gzira United and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamrun Spartans
Birkirkara
Hibernians
Balzan FC
Valletta FC
Floriana
Sirens
Gudja United
Marsaxlokk
Santa Lucía
Zebbug Rangers
Pietà Hotspurs