The match between H&W Welders and Annagh United is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. Home win probability is 38 %, a draw 27 % and an away win 35 %. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 24 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6 % chance. H&W Welders, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Annagh United, away against a weaker side, average 1.0 goal scored and 0.88 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.1 % probability. This is the only suggested pick. The recent form shows H&W on a two-game winning run after a 2-1 win over Strabane Athletic, while Annagh comes off a win, 2-0 over Moyola Park. The final score was 4-0 in favour of the home side.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on, with H&W Welders securing a decisive 4-0 victory over Annagh United. The home side’s recent form - two consecutive wins - set the stage for a comfortable win, while the visitors, fresh from a win themselves, could not keep pace. The model’s favourite, a home win at 38 % probability, was correct. Its suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 80.1 %, also hit, reflecting the match’s high scoring. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the 4-0 result underscored the home side’s dominance. Overall, the model’s selections largely materialised, confirming its accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
H&W Welders win✓ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annagh United win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
H&W Welders
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.37
2.57
1.43
2.12
1.31
vs Stronger (17)
2.18
1.59
1.88
1.38
2.44
1.78
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.57
1.50
2.25
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
4.00
0.50
7.50
0.00
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.00
1.65
1.12
1.08
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.29
1.89
1.56
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.75
1.38
0.62
1.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
6.9%
0-0
6.5%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
6.1%
H&W Welders goals ↓
Annagh United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.5%
5.4%
2.6%
0.9%
1
6.9%
13%
8.2%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.6%
6.1%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.0%
4.3%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = H&W Welders goals (down), columns = Annagh United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
H&W Welders is 0.16 points worse than Annagh United in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
H&W Welders is 0.84 goals better than Annagh United in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
H&W Welders is 0.24 goals worse than Annagh United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
H&W Welders
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.50
0.71
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (17)
1.29
0.88
1.25
0.50
1.33
1.22
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.33
3.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.88
0.29
0.62
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.36
1.00
0.22
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
H&W Welders
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.57
1.07
0.71
1.25
0.44
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
0.71
0.62
0.88
1.11
0.56
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
0.17
4.00
0.00
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.76
0.82
0.46
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.93
0.89
1.33
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.50
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →