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H&W Welders vs Armagh City Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Vs
83%
11%
6%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Armagh City
Armagh City
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

H&W Welders are the clear favourites to win at home against Armagh City, thanks to the model's high probability of a home win (83%) and their impressive recent form, having won their last three games. The model's selection is a home win, and it's the most likely result, with a 82.9% chance of success.

The expected total number of goals in this match is 4.4, and the most likely scoreline is 3-0 to H&W Welders, with a probability of 8.4%. The home side has been scoring freely at home, averaging 5.67 goals per game against weaker opponents, while conceding just 0.33 goals.

Armagh City, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, averaging just 0.65 goals scored against stronger opponents, while conceding 3.59 goals. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 (93.8%), Over 2.5 (81.6%), and Home win (82.9%). The probabilities for the other match outcomes are 11% for a draw and 6% for an away win.

Results analysis

The win extends H&W Welders' run, their third consecutive victory. A low-scoring 1-0 final score was a stark contrast to the model's expectations, with the actual total falling well short of the predicted 4.3 goals. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 83%. The model's call was vindicated, as H&W Welders secured a narrow win. The model's selection of Home win also hit in the suggested picks, with a 83.5% probability. Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 both missed, with probabilities of 93.2% and 80.3% respectively.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

H&W Welders win✓ Hit
83.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
10.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Armagh City win✗ Miss
5.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W11D14L23L00D02L42W40W30W12LH·DUN10/03A·BAL14/03H·LIM21/03H·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.302.731.271.931.33
vs Stronger (17)2.181.472.121.252.221.67
vs Similar (6)1.001.831.502.250.001.00
vs Weaker (7)3.860.436.000.002.250.75
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D11D18L00D12L00D06L14L11D02LH·BAL07/03A·LOU16/03A·QUE21/03A·WAR28/03A·ARD10/04A·DUN18/04A·BAL21/04H·INS25/04H·QUE08/08A·WAR11/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.533.200.422.750.613.50
vs Stronger (22)0.643.410.502.880.713.71
vs Similar (8)0.252.620.252.500.252.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%2%05%113%218%319%417%526%6+
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
93.2%
Under 1.5
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
80.3%
Under 2.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
9.0%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
7.9%
4-0
7.6%
2-1
7.1%
4-1
6.9%
5-0
5.2%
5-1
4.7%
H&W Welders goals ↓
Armagh City goals →
01234
01.8%0.8%0.6%0.2%0.0%
14.2%4.6%1.9%0.6%0.1%
27.9%7.1%3.2%1.0%0.2%
39.0%8.1%3.6%1.1%0.2%
47.6%6.9%3.1%0.9%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = H&W Welders goals (down), columns = Armagh City goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
H&W Welders is 2.00 points better than Armagh City in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 0.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
H&W Welders is 1.20 goals better than Armagh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 0.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
H&W Welders is 0.80 goals better than Armagh City in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L03L11D00D01L11D30W10W12LH·DUN10/03A·BAL14/03H·LIM21/03H·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.801.530.670.930.93
vs Stronger (17)1.350.881.380.501.331.22
vs Similar (6)0.671.171.001.500.000.50
vs Weaker (7)1.430.292.670.000.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D03L00D01L00D02L01L10W01LH·BAL07/03A·LOU16/03A·QUE21/03A·WAR28/03A·ARD10/04A·DUN18/04A·BAL21/04H·INS25/04H·QUE08/08A·WAR11/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.131.270.250.830.061.56
vs Stronger (22)0.141.410.250.880.071.71
vs Similar (8)0.120.880.250.750.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W11D12L00D01L31W10W20W00DH·DUN10/03A·BAL14/03H·LIM21/03H·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.501.200.601.000.40
vs Stronger (17)0.820.590.750.750.890.44
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.500.750.000.50
vs Weaker (7)2.430.143.330.001.750.25
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D11D15L00D11D00D04L13L01L01LH·BAL07/03A·LOU16/03A·QUE21/03A·WAR28/03A·ARD10/04A·DUN18/04A·BAL21/04H·INS25/04H·QUE08/08A·WAR11/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.930.171.920.561.94
vs Stronger (22)0.502.000.252.000.642.00
vs Similar (8)0.121.750.001.750.251.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.593.2%-------✗ Miss
Home win83.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.580.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
H&W Welders and Armagh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
H&W Welders and Armagh City have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
H&W Welders and Armagh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
HW wins
1
Draws
1
AC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

H&W Welders vs Armagh City · H/A from HW
DateH/AGameScore
03/01/26HHW Vs Armagh City12-0
29/11/25AArmagh City Vs HW0-3
09/08/25HHW Vs Armagh City3-0
11/01/25AArmagh City Vs HW3-3
16/11/24AArmagh City Vs HW3-0
14/09/24HHW Vs Armagh City5-0

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/26AQueen's University Vs HW2-1
08/08/26HHW Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
24/04/26HHW Vs Annagh United4-0
18/04/26ANewington Youth Vs HW2-4
11/04/26ALoughgall Vs HW2-0
03/04/26ALimavady United Vs HW0-0
28/03/26HHW Vs Queen's University2-3
21/03/26HHW Vs Limavady United1-4
14/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs HW1-1
10/03/26HHW Vs Dundela3-1

Armagh CityArmagh City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs AC2-0
08/08/26HAC Vs Queen's University1-1
25/04/26HAC Vs Institute1-4
21/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs AC6-0
18/04/26ADundela Vs AC0-0
10/04/26AArds Vs AC2-1
28/03/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs AC0-0
21/03/26AQueen's University Vs AC8-1
16/03/26ALoughgall Vs AC1-1
07/03/26HAC Vs Ballinamallard United0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.64
HomeWLLWW1.67
AwayDDLWL1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals3.443.583.31
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %72%75%69%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored2.142.292.00
Conceded1.301.291.31
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Armagh City
Armagh City
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDL0.48
HomeLLDLD0.56
AwayDLDLL0.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%12%8%
AVG goals3.783.364.20
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %70%68%72%
Over 3.5 %42%36%48%
Scored0.900.880.92
Conceded2.882.483.28
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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