H&W Welders enter the match on a strong 2-game winning run, having beaten Strabane Athletic 2-1, and the model sees them as the clear favourite with a 74 % chance of victory. Their home form is dominant, scoring an average of 4.75 goals per game while conceding none against weaker opponents, which explains the high home win probability. Ballinamallard United, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 1.25 goals scored and 1.92 conceded, making them the underdog with a 9 % chance of triumph. The predicted outcome is a home win, and the expected total goals is 3.5, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 10.5 %. The model also lists a 16 % draw chance and a 9 % away win chance. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.8 %), Under 7.5 (97.4 %), Home +2 handicap (97.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.2 %), Under 6.5 (93.5 %), Home over 0.5 goals (92.8 %), Home or Draw (90.7 %) and Home +1 handicap (90.7 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
H&W Welders win
75.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United win
8.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
H&W Welders
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.20
2.56
1.19
2.07
1.21
vs Stronger (17)
2.29
1.35
2.11
1.11
2.50
1.62
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.71
1.50
2.25
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
3.83
0.17
5.33
0.00
2.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballinamallard United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.19
1.44
1.29
1.50
vs Stronger (24)
1.17
1.58
1.00
1.38
1.36
1.82
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.8%
Under 2.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
7.7%
1-1
7.6%
4-0
6.3%
4-1
5.2%
H&W Welders goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
1.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
7.7%
7.6%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
2
11%
9.0%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.6%
7.9%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
6.3%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = H&W Welders goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
H&W Welders is 1.20 points better than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
H&W Welders is 0.80 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
H&W Welders is 1.00 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
H&W Welders or Draw
91.3%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers H&W Welders + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders or Ballinamallard United
83.8%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers H&W Welders + Ballinamallard United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ballinamallard United
24.9%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers Draw + Ballinamallard United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5
Over
92.7%
Under
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 3.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to H&W Welders, so a minus line means H&W Welders give that many goals of a start and Ballinamallard United receive them. At -1, H&W Welders must win by two or more to land; a one-goal H&W Welders win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders -2
33.2%
Draw -2
21.3%
Ballinamallard United +2
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders -1
54.5%
Draw -1
20.6%
Ballinamallard United +1
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders +1
91.3%
Draw +1
6.0%
Ballinamallard United -1
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders +2
97.3%
Draw +2
2.1%
Ballinamallard United -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
H&W Welders
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.31
0.62
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
0.76
1.22
0.44
1.50
1.12
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballinamallard United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.44
0.56
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (24)
0.38
0.67
0.38
0.46
0.36
0.91
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
H&W Welders
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.25
0.56
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
0.59
0.89
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
0.00
3.33
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballinamallard United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.75
0.88
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (24)
0.79
0.92
0.62
0.92
1.00
0.91
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
H&W Welders and Ballinamallard United have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
H&W Welders and Ballinamallard United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
H&W Welders and Ballinamallard United have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →