PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

H&W Welders vs Institute Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 3-1
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Vs
62%
20%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

H&W Welders win✓ Hit
61.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Institute win✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-730W10W00D30W71W12L21W10W00D02LH·DER28/01A·ARD11/02H·ANN14/02A·NEW18/02H·KNO25/02A·BAL07/03H·DUN11/03A·INS18/03H·LOU25/03A·DER08/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.502.201.471.331.53
vs Stronger (16)1.561.441.882.001.250.88
vs Similar (9)2.331.333.000.801.502.00
vs Weaker (5)1.402.001.501.001.332.67
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-615L02L26L20W22D12L01L02L32W23LA·LOU11/02H·NEW14/02A·BAL18/02H·ANN25/02H·DER04/03A·WAR11/03H·H&W18/03H·BAL21/03A·KNO25/03A·KNO08/04
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.671.571.001.252.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.281.561.251.001.302.00
vs Weaker (12)1.581.832.001.001.172.67
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.0%
Under 2.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 3.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.1%
3-1 ✓
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
3-2
5.0%
1-2
4.9%
H&W Welders goals ↓
Institute goals →
01234
03.0%2.2%2.0%0.9%0.3%
14.8%8.1%4.9%2.2%0.7%
26.9%9.1%6.0%2.7%0.9%
35.7%7.5%5.0%2.2%0.7%
43.5%4.6%3.1%1.4%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = H&W Welders goals (down), columns = Institute goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Knockbreda
1.00
Institute
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
H&W Welders is 0.45 points better than Institute in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
H&W Welders is 0.50 goals better than Institute in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.32).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
H&W Welders is 0.05 goals worse than Institute in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.66).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D00D10W40W01L01L00D00D01LH·DER28/01A·ARD11/02H·ANN14/02A·NEW18/02H·KNO25/02A·BAL07/03H·DUN11/03A·INS18/03H·LOU25/03A·DER08/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.930.530.330.80
vs Stronger (16)0.500.620.750.620.250.62
vs Similar (9)0.890.671.200.600.500.75
vs Weaker (5)0.600.801.000.000.331.33
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L03L20W00D01L00D00D12L21WA·LOU11/02H·NEW14/02A·BAL18/02H·ANN25/02H·DER04/03A·WAR11/03H·H&W18/03H·BAL21/03A·KNO25/03A·KNO08/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.710.360.441.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.720.620.500.400.90
vs Weaker (12)0.670.670.830.170.501.17
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W00D20W31W11D20W10W00D01LH·DER28/01A·ARD11/02H·ANN14/02A·NEW18/02H·KNO25/02A·BAL07/03H·DUN11/03A·INS18/03H·LOU25/03A·DER08/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.831.270.931.000.73
vs Stronger (16)1.060.811.121.381.000.25
vs Similar (9)1.440.671.800.201.001.25
vs Weaker (5)0.801.200.501.001.001.33
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D23L00D22D11D01L02L20W02LA·LOU11/02H·NEW14/02A·BAL18/02H·ANN25/02H·DER04/03A·WAR11/03H·H&W18/03H·BAL21/03A·KNO25/03A·KNO08/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.970.860.640.811.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.780.830.620.500.901.10
vs Weaker (12)0.921.171.170.830.671.50
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.573.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
HW wins
0
Draws
1
INS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

H&W Welders vs Institute · H/A from HW
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23AInstitute Vs HW0-1
19/11/22AInstitute Vs HW1-0
03/09/22HHW Vs Institute5-0

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23ADergview Vs HW2-0
25/03/23HHW Vs Loughgall0-0
18/03/23AInstitute Vs HW0-1
11/03/23HHW Vs Dundela2-1
07/03/23ABallinamallard United Vs HW2-1
25/02/23HHW Vs Knockbreda7-1
18/02/23ANewington Youth Vs HW0-3
14/02/23HHW Vs Annagh United0-0
11/02/23AArds Vs HW0-1
28/01/23HHW Vs Dergview3-0

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23AKnockbreda Vs INS3-2
25/03/23AKnockbreda Vs INS2-3
21/03/23HINS Vs Ballinamallard United0-2
18/03/23HINS Vs H&W Welders0-1
11/03/23AWarrenpoint Town Vs INS2-1
04/03/23HINS Vs Dergview2-2
25/02/23HINS Vs Annagh United2-0
18/02/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs INS6-2
14/02/23HINS Vs Newington Youth0-2
11/02/23ALoughgall Vs INS5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL1.35
HomeWDWWD1.59
AwayWWLWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%47%35%
AVG goals3.263.473.06
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %68%65%71%
Over 3.5 %41%47%35%
Scored1.652.001.29
Conceded1.621.471.76
BTTS50%53%47%
Clean Sheet26%24%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.00
HomeLWDLL1.44
AwayLLLWL0.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%38%17%
AVG goals3.062.563.50
Over 1.5 %82%88%78%
Over 2.5 %47%25%67%
Over 3.5 %26%12%39%
Scored1.381.501.28
Conceded1.681.062.22
BTTS56%50%61%
Clean Sheet15%25%6%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LoughgallLoughgall3877
61%
2.0
7525+50
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
2Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3871
55%
1.9
6744+23
2.9
84%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3859
45%
1.6
5843+15
2.7
84%
63%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
4DundelaDundela3858
47%
1.5
5758-1
3.0
74%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
5ArdsArds3856
45%
1.5
7275-3
3.9
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
6H&W WeldersH&W Welders3855
45%
1.4
6965+4
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3855
37%
1.4
6663+3
3.4
84%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3852
37%
1.4
5059-9
2.9
84%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9DergviewDergview3841
29%
1.1
5168-17
3.1
82%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Newington YouthNewington Youth3840
29%
1.1
6175-14
3.6
89%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11KnockbredaKnockbreda4040
25%
1.0
5389-36
3.5
85%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
12InstituteInstitute3838
26%
1.0
5063-13
3.0
82%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
13Ballymacash RangersBallymacash Rangers21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches