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H&W Welders vs Rathfriland Prediction & Stats

Date: 03/10/2026
Time: 14:00
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Vs
72%
16%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

H&W Welders are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 71% chance of a home win, 17% for a draw and 12% for a Rathfriland victory. The prediction favours a 2-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 8.8%. The expected total is 3.9 goals, with the model most often forecasting three goals at 20%. H&W’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded against similar opposition, while Rathfriland’s away record is not included in the data. The model’s selections include an 89.6% chance of an away under 2.5 goals, a 93.8% chance of home over 0.5 goals, a 95.5% chance of a home +2 handicap, a 95.4% chance of under 7.5 goals, a 90.8% chance of over 1.5 goals, a 89.8% chance of under 6.5 goals, a 97.2% chance of away under 3.5 goals and an 88.0% chance of home or draw. The model’s edge is clear: a dominant home performance against a side that has struggled on the road.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

H&W Welders win
72.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland win
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L00D02L42W40W30W12L10W21W20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.202.561.192.071.21
vs Stronger (17)2.291.352.111.112.501.62
vs Similar (7)1.141.711.502.250.671.00
vs Weaker (6)3.830.175.330.002.330.33
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L24L12L04L13LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Stronger (5)1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.0%
Under 2.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.6%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%
3-1
8.2%
2-0
7.9%
3-0
7.4%
1-1
6.8%
4-1
5.7%
4-0
5.2%
1-0
5.0%
H&W Welders goals ↓
Rathfriland goals →
01234
02.6%1.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%
15.0%6.8%3.4%1.3%0.4%
27.9%8.7%4.8%1.8%0.5%
37.4%8.2%4.5%1.7%0.5%
45.2%5.7%3.2%1.2%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = H&W Welders goals (down), columns = Rathfriland goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
H&W Welders is 2.40 points better than Rathfriland in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
H&W Welders is 0.80 goals better than Rathfriland in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
H&W Welders is 2.60 goals better than Rathfriland in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 3.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
H&W Welders or Draw
88.4%
Avg Implied -
72%
16%
12%
covers H&W Welders + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders or Rathfriland
83.8%
Avg Implied -
72%
16%
12%
covers H&W Welders + Rathfriland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rathfriland
27.9%
Avg Implied -
72%
16%
12%
covers Draw + Rathfriland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5
Over
94.0%
Under
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 3.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to H&W Welders, so a minus line means H&W Welders give that many goals of a start and Rathfriland receive them. At -1, H&W Welders must win by two or more to land; a one-goal H&W Welders win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders -2
32.7%
Draw -2
19.9%
Rathfriland +2
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders -1
52.6%
Draw -1
19.5%
Rathfriland +1
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders +1
88.4%
Draw +1
7.3%
Rathfriland -1
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (H&W Welders)
H&W Welders +2
95.7%
Draw +2
3.1%
Rathfriland -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L11D30W10W12L00D10W00DH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.310.621.070.79
vs Stronger (17)1.350.761.220.441.501.12
vs Similar (7)0.711.001.001.500.330.33
vs Weaker (6)1.330.172.000.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L02L03L02LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Stronger (5)0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D01L31W10W20W00D10W11D20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.250.561.000.43
vs Stronger (17)0.940.590.890.671.000.50
vs Similar (7)0.430.710.500.750.330.67
vs Weaker (6)2.500.003.330.001.670.00
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W10W01L11DH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Stronger (5)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals97.4%-------
Home +2 handicap95.7%-------
Under 7.595.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals94.0%-------
Over 1.590.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals89.9%-------
Under 6.589.8%-------
Home or Draw88.4%-------
Home +1 handicap88.4%-------
Home or Away83.8%-------
Under 5.579.8%-------
Home over 1.5 goals77.1%-------
Over 2.575.0%-------
Home win72.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
HW wins
0
Draws
0
RAT wins

Head-to-head

H&W Welders vs Rathfriland · H/A from HW
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HHW Vs Dundela2-0
22/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs HW1-2
15/08/26HHW Vs Armagh City1-0
11/08/26AQueen's University Vs HW2-1
08/08/26HHW Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
24/04/26HHW Vs Annagh United4-0
18/04/26ANewington Youth Vs HW2-4
11/04/26ALoughgall Vs HW2-0
03/04/26ALimavady United Vs HW0-0
28/03/26HHW Vs Queen's University2-3

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs RAT3-1
22/08/26ANewington Youth Vs RAT4-0
15/08/26HRAT Vs Newry City AFC1-2
11/08/26AAnnagh United Vs RAT4-2
08/08/26HRAT Vs Loughgall1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.74
HomeLWWWW1.84
AwayDLWLW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%56%48%
AVG goals3.523.523.52
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %74%72%76%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored2.222.322.12
Conceded1.301.201.40
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.00
HomeLL0.00
AwayLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals4.203.504.67
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %80%50%100%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded3.202.503.67
BTTS80%100%67%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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