H&W Welders are expected to emerge victorious in their Northern-Ireland: Championship matchup against Warrenpoint Town, with a 56% chance of winning at home. The probability of a draw stands at 24%, while Warrenpoint Town's away win percentage is 20%.
The expected total goals are 3.0, indicating a high-scoring match. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.3%.
H&W Welders have been performing well at home, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding 1.2 per match against similar opponents. Warrenpoint Town, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with suggested picks including Over 1.5, which has an 81.3% probability and a 1% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends H&W Welders' 3-game winning run, a streak that now stands at four victories in their last five matches. In a convincing display, they secured a 3-0 triumph over Warrenpoint Town, confirming the final score and actual result. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, as it was the pre-match favourite with a 56% probability. The model's call was correct, and it was the favourite. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 81.3% probability, and Warrenpoint Town's recent away form, which included two straight defeats, suggested this outcome was likely.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
H&W Welders win✓ Hit
55.9%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.25
Edge
-16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Dafabet
1.29
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.28
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
Superbet
5.35
Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied 10.5% · @ 8.65
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
10.10
Marathonbet
9.70
William Hil
9.50
10Bet
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
H&W Welders
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.37
2.67
1.33
2.07
1.40
vs Stronger (18)
2.28
1.50
2.11
1.22
2.44
1.78
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.83
1.50
2.25
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
4.00
0.50
7.50
0.00
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warrenpoint Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.29
1.29
1.12
1.44
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
1.70
1.18
1.55
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (7)
2.43
0.29
1.67
0.33
3.00
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
@ 1.13+0.6%
Under 1.5
18.7%
@ 4.73-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.9%
@ 1.46-4.6%
Under 2.5
42.1%
@ 2.45+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.53
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.57
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
BetVictor
2.38
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.5%
@ 2.15-7.3%
Under 3.5
64.5%
@ 1.61+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
BetVictor
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.61
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.83+7.3%
No
42.4%
@ 1.85-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.78
No
BetVictor
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 10.10+7.0%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.90+4.4%
2-0
9.1%@ 6.80+2.8%
1-0
8.5%@ 8.10+3.1%
3-1
6.4%@ 9.70+1.9%
0-0
6.0%@ 16.20+3.3%
3-0 ✓
5.9%@ 7.80+0.3%
1-2
5.6%@ 23.00+3.7%
H&W Welders goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.3%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.5%
11%
5.6%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.9%
6.4%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.8%
3.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = H&W Welders goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
H&W Welders is 1.00 points better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
H&W Welders and Warrenpoint Town are level in goals scored per game (both 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
H&W Welders is 1.20 goals better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
H&W Welders
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.80
1.60
0.67
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (18)
1.39
0.83
1.44
0.44
1.33
1.22
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.33
3.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warrenpoint Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (23)
0.39
0.74
0.64
0.55
0.17
0.92
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.29
0.67
0.33
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
H&W Welders
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.07
0.67
1.13
0.47
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.78
1.11
0.56
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
0.17
4.00
0.00
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warrenpoint Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.64
0.79
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.96
0.55
1.00
0.33
0.92
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
H&W Welders and Warrenpoint Town have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
H&W Welders and Warrenpoint Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
H&W Welders and Warrenpoint Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Newington Youth
Glenavon FC
Queen's University
Annagh United
Loughgall
Newry City AFC
Ards
Moyola Park
Ballinamallard United
Institute
Dundela
Strabane Athletic
Armagh City
Rathfriland