The contest between Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost level: a 36% chance for a home triumph, 28% for a draw and 37% for a Mainz victory. The expected goal tally sits at 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13% chance. Hamburger’s home form shows a modest 1.73 goals per game scored and 1.18 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Mainz’s away record yields 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded in those same matchups. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.2% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3% with a 7% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.0% with a 6% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.1% with a 4% edge and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.1% with a 2% edge. Both sides arrive with recent form that suggests a balanced, low-scoring game.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamburger SV win
36.8%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.80
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.94
Betano
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
Bet365
2.88
Dafabet
2.85
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.52
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Pinnacle
3.62
Marathonbet
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
FSV Mainz 05 win
35.6%
Avg Implied 39.3% · @ 2.40
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.49
Pinnacle
2.47
Marathonbet
2.45
Dafabet
2.43
10Bet
2.42
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamburger SV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
1.53
1.27
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.36
1.55
1.73
1.18
1.00
1.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FSV Mainz 05
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.47
1.00
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.40
3.00
4.00
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.08
1.36
0.79
1.18
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.5%
@ 1.21+0.8%
Under 1.5
21.5%
@ 4.21-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.6%
@ 1.71-2.0%
Under 2.5
46.4%
@ 2.15+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
SBO
2.21
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Unibet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.4%
@ 2.71-3.3%
Under 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.44+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
@ 1.56-1.3%
No
41.6%
@ 2.31+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
No
William Hil
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
BetVictor
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.41+5.8%
2-1
8.4%@ 9.55+3.6%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.48+2.8%
1-0
7.3%@ 10.46+2.9%
0-1
7.1%@ 9.50+2.2%
0-0
7.1%@ 12.31+3.4%
2-0
6.0%@ 14.58+2.9%
2-2
5.9%@ 10.80+1.6%
Hamburger SV goals ↓
FSV Mainz 05 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
7.1%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.3%
13%
8.3%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.4%
5.9%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.9%
4.0%
2.8%
1.3%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamburger SV goals (down), columns = FSV Mainz 05 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Hamburger SV is 0.06 points worse than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Hamburger SV is 0.12 goals worse than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Hamburger SV is 0.03 goals worse than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Hamburger SV is 1.4 percentage points better than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of average possession (45% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hamburger SV
For 3.2 · Against 6.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FSV Mainz 05
For 5.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.5 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.6
9.8
5.1
4.9
5.2
24.1
23.5
24.5
vs Stronger (9)
9.7
10.5
9.0
4.3
4.8
4.0
23.6
23.2
23.8
vs Similar (31)
9.5
9.5
9.6
5.3
5.0
5.5
24.3
24.9
23.8
vs Weaker (10)
10.4
9.2
11.6
5.1
4.6
5.6
23.7
19.8
27.6
% over line
48%
46%
50%
72%
71%
73%
68%
67%
69%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
28%
29%
27%
32%
33%
31%
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FSV Mainz 05
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.7
9.1
4.3
4.0
4.7
21.7
22.8
20.4
vs Stronger (9)
8.6
8.8
8.2
4.4
4.8
4.0
22.3
26.4
17.2
vs Similar (41)
9.6
10.0
9.3
4.3
3.9
4.8
21.5
22.0
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
54%
42%
58%
54%
62%
48%
54%
42%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
42%
46%
38%
52%
46%
58%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.0%
@ 1.76-4.0%
Under 9.5
51.0%
@ 1.98+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.77+13.5%
Under 3.5
34.2%
@ 1.94-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.8%
Under 21.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hamburger SV or Draw
59.7%
Avg Implied 60.1% · @ 1.57
Edge
-0.3%
37%
28%
36%
covers Hamburger SV + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
SBO
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
William Hil
1.55
Hamburger SV or FSV Mainz 05
72.9%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-0.8%
37%
28%
36%
covers Hamburger SV + FSV Mainz 05
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or FSV Mainz 05
67.4%
Avg Implied 66.2% · @ 1.42
Edge
+1.1%
37%
28%
36%
covers Draw + FSV Mainz 05
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.44
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
@ 1.25-0.1%
Under
25.8%
@ 3.63+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.77
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5
Over
39.3%
@ 2.27-1.9%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.59+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
@ 5.11-2.6%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.14+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
5.20
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Hamburger SV over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
@ 11.59-3.2%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Unibet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
@ 1.21+1.1%
Under
21.7%
@ 4.07-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.19
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
@ 2.06-0.4%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.72+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
@ 4.40-1.4%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.19+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.57
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
@ 9.63-2.8%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.70
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hamburger SV, so a minus line means Hamburger SV give that many goals of a start and FSV Mainz 05 receive them. At -1, Hamburger SV must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hamburger SV win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hamburger SV)
Hamburger SV -2
5.4%
@ 11.35-2.4%
Draw -2
9.8%
@ 7.06-2.8%
FSV Mainz 05 +2
84.9%
@ 1.11+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Hamburger SV)
Hamburger SV -1
15.1%
@ 5.42-1.5%
Draw -1
17.5%
@ 4.45-2.7%
FSV Mainz 05 +1
67.4%
@ 1.43+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Away
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Handicap +1 (Hamburger SV)
Hamburger SV +1
59.7%
@ 1.56+1.8%
Draw +1
19.9%
@ 4.15-1.9%
FSV Mainz 05 -1
20.4%
@ 4.44+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.30
Handicap +2 (Hamburger SV)
Hamburger SV +2
79.6%
@ 1.17+2.4%
Draw +2
12.4%
@ 6.73-1.0%
FSV Mainz 05 -2
8.0%
@ 9.60-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.77
0.82
0.82
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FSV Mainz 05
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.73
0.20
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.40
0.57
0.21
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.6%
@ 1.32+0.3%
Under 0.5
28.4%
@ 3.27-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.7%
@ 2.48-2.1%
Under 1.5
64.3%
@ 1.50+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 5.97-3.8%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.11+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.7%
@ 1.99-6.0%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.75+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 6.11-5.1%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.09+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Unibet
6.00
Betano
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
@ 12.00-6.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.1%
@ 1.89-2.2%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.84+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.7%
@ 5.43-1.4%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.12+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
@ 11.25-5.7%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamburger SV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.53
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.77
0.91
0.36
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FSV Mainz 05
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.00
4.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.68
0.79
0.57
0.36
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.18-0.6%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 4.44+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.0%
@ 1.89-4.6%
Under 1.5
55.0%
@ 1.86+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Unibet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 3.80-7.7%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.24+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
William Hil
3.90
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.7%
@ 1.73-3.1%
Under
49.3%
@ 2.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
@ 4.48-5.3%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.17+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
@ 9.75-6.3%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.9%
@ 1.61-2.7%
Under
45.1%
@ 2.19+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.14
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.0%
@ 3.99-5.2%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.21+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
@ 8.75-6.7%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.05+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+2.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+2.8%
Under 5.5
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
+2.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
+3.8%
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
1.11
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+5.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+5.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.12
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
+1.4%
Under 4.5
83.4%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+2.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+7.7%
Over 2.5 cards
82.6%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+10.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
+5.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.2%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+1.4%
Home +2 handicap
79.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+2.4%
Over 1.5
78.5%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+0.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-0.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
+1.1%
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
1.35
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+6.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
-0.1%
Home or Away
72.9%
1.28
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-0.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
+0.3%
Under 23.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.3%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
-1.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamburger SV · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fábio Vieira23%
Robert Glatzel20%
Luka Vušković20%
Albert Sambi Lokonga19%
Jean-Luc Dompé14%
Albert Grønbæk14%
Rayan Philippe13%
Bakery Jatta12%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer11%
Philip Otele11%
Yussuf Poulsen6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolás Capaldo4%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Miro Muheim0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Nicolai Remberg0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolás Capaldo38%
Nicolai Remberg38%
Philip Otele33%
Yussuf Poulsen25%
Daniel Elfadli23%
Miro Muheim23%
Aboubaka Soumahoro20%
Luka Vušković20%
Jonas Meffert17%
Jordan Torunarigha15%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit15%
Immanuel Pherai14%
Albert Sambi Lokonga12%
William Mikelbrencis12%
Fábio Vieira10%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes9%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili8%
Rayan Philippe7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer6%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Robert Glatzel0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Damion Downs0%
Otto Stange0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Grønbæk29%
Fábio Vieira16%
Miro Muheim16%
William Mikelbrencis15%
Nicolás Capaldo12%
Philip Otele11%
Robert Glatzel10%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit8%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolai Remberg6%
Warmed Omari5%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili4%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Albert Sambi Lokonga0%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Rayan Philippe0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Luka Vušković0%
Otto Stange0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fábio Vieira23%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer17%
Rayan Philippe10%
Miro Muheim10%
Jean-Luc Dompé10%
Nicolás Capaldo8%
Luka Vušković7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Robert Glatzel5%
Albert Sambi Lokonga4%
Nicolai Remberg3%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Philip Otele0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Fabio Baldé0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
FSV Mainz 05 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nadiem Amiri46%
Sheraldo Becker21%
Phillip Tietz17%
Jae-sung Lee15%
Stefan Bell13%
Silas11%
Stefan Posch10%
Benedict Hollerbach10%
Paul Nebel9%
Armindo Sieb9%
Silvan Widmer8%
Nelson Weiper6%
Sota Kawasaki6%
Dominik Kohr5%
Danny da Costa4%
Kacper Potulski4%
Kaishu Sano4%
Phillipp Mwene3%
Arnaud Nordin0%
Anthony Caci0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
William Bøving0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Nikolas Veratschnig0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dominik Kohr36%
Stefan Posch30%
Stefan Bell26%
Nadiem Amiri26%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen24%
Anthony Caci23%
Robin Zentner22%
Nikolas Veratschnig21%
Ben Justus Bobzien20%
Sheraldo Becker14%
Phillip Tietz13%
Kacper Potulski13%
Silvan Widmer12%
Silas11%
Daniel Batz11%
Sota Kawasaki11%
Jae-sung Lee10%
Phillipp Mwene10%
Paul Nebel9%
Armindo Sieb9%
Danny da Costa7%
Lennard Maloney6%
William Bøving6%
Arnaud Nordin5%
Nelson Weiper3%
Kaishu Sano2%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Benedict Hollerbach0%
Lasse Riess0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sheraldo Becker21%
Benedict Hollerbach14%
Paul Nebel11%
Jae-sung Lee10%
Danny da Costa9%
Phillip Tietz9%
Nadiem Amiri9%
Anthony Caci8%
Kaishu Sano6%
Sota Kawasaki6%
William Bøving6%
Phillipp Mwene5%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen5%
Stefan Bell4%
Nikolas Veratschnig3%
Silvan Widmer2%
Stefan Posch0%
Dominik Kohr0%
Silas0%
Arnaud Nordin0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Armindo Sieb0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Kacper Potulski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phillip Tietz39%
Sheraldo Becker21%
Benedict Hollerbach19%
Nadiem Amiri17%
Nelson Weiper9%
Silvan Widmer8%
Armindo Sieb6%
Arnaud Nordin5%
Jae-sung Lee5%
Phillipp Mwene5%
Stefan Posch5%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen5%
Stefan Bell4%
Nikolas Veratschnig3%
Kaishu Sano2%
Dominik Kohr0%
Danny da Costa0%
Silas0%
Anthony Caci0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
Sota Kawasaki0%
William Bøving0%
Paul Nebel0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
Kacper Potulski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Hamburger SV's squad is €58m less valuable than FSV Mainz 05's (€117m vs €175m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Hamburger SV's attack is €3m less valuable than FSV Mainz 05's (€46m vs €49m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Hamburger SV's midfield is €46m less valuable than FSV Mainz 05's (€34m vs €80m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Hamburger SV's defence is €9m less valuable than FSV Mainz 05's (€37m vs €47m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart