Pythia gives Hamburger SV a 50% win probability against SC Freiburg in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-10, with 27% for the draw and 23% for SC Freiburg. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (78%), Over 2.5 cards (78%), Under 5.5 cards (77%), Under 11.5 corners (76%).
Results analysis
Hamburger SV finished 3-2 against SC Freiburg (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 50% home win, 27% draw and 23% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (78%), Over 2.5 cards (78%), Under 5.5 cards (77%), Under 11.5 corners (76%), Over 1.5 (75%). Missed: Under 3.5 (73%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamburger SV win✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied 34.1% · @ 2.74
Edge
+15.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.57
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.35
Edge
-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamburger SV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.63
1.47
1.20
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.29
1.00
1.50
1.00
3.33
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.55
1.70
1.10
1.10
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Freiburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
2.06
0.94
1.00
1.79
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.29
2.25
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (15)
1.47
1.13
1.88
0.62
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.88
2.25
0.50
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.3%
@ 1.67-6.7%
Under 2.5
50.7%
@ 2.13+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
Hamburger SV goals ↓
SC Freiburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.1%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.5%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.0%
5.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamburger SV goals (down), columns = SC Freiburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
Hamburger SV is 0.26 points worse than SC Freiburg in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
Hamburger SV is 0.32 goals worse than SC Freiburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
Hamburger SV is 0.09 goals better than SC Freiburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
Hamburger SV is 2.6 percentage points worse than SC Freiburg in terms of average possession (45% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hamburger SV
For 3.5 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Freiburg
For 2.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 12.6 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.1
5.2
5.0
5.3
24.0
23.8
24.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
10.5
10.0
4.6
4.8
4.3
23.0
23.2
22.7
vs Similar (22)
9.7
9.8
9.5
5.3
4.8
5.7
24.8
24.9
24.6
vs Weaker (21)
10.1
9.3
10.7
5.2
5.2
5.2
23.4
22.6
24.1
% over line
50%
46%
54%
74%
71%
77%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
50%
54%
46%
26%
29%
23%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Freiburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.6
8.4
3.8
4.0
3.6
22.8
22.0
23.7
vs Stronger (10)
7.4
8.6
6.2
4.1
5.2
3.0
22.6
22.0
23.2
vs Similar (27)
8.5
7.9
9.2
3.8
3.7
3.9
23.8
22.3
25.4
vs Weaker (13)
9.4
10.2
8.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
21.1
21.2
21.0
% over line
38%
36%
40%
52%
48%
56%
56%
48%
64%
% under line
62%
64%
60%
48%
52%
44%
44%
52%
36%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.2
RB Leipzig
10.5
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
Hamburger SV
9.9
VfB Stuttgart
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Union Berlin
9.4
Werder Bremen
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.3
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
1899 Hoffenheim
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
22.8
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
FSV Mainz 05
22.1
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.9
1. FC Heidenheim
21.5
1. FC Köln
20.8
Werder Bremen
20.7
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
FC St. Pauli
20.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.3%
Under 9.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.0%
Under 3.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
52.5%
Under 21.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.75
0.90
0.70
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Freiburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.20
0.62
0.12
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.50
0.25
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →