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Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Vs
34%
28%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hamrun Spartans winâś“ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta winâś— Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W14L33D41W20W10W20W20W10W00DA·LEV11/08A·FK 18/08H·FK 25/08A·HIB29/08H·PIE04/09H·MAR07/09A·SIR10/09H·FLO01/10A·VAL08/10A·BIR15/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.801.860.711.380.88
vs Stronger (4)1.502.251.502.001.502.50
vs Similar (7)1.290.292.330.330.500.25
vs Weaker (4)2.250.251.500.003.000.50
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L41W05L41W11D11D31WH·GUD20/08A·MAR27/08H·HIB04/09A·PIE10/09H·SIR01/10A·FLO08/10H·VAL15/10
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.711.252.253.001.00
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (5)2.401.801.332.334.001.00
vs Weaker (1)1.002.001.002.00--
Clean sheet %0% (-31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
8.2%
2-1 âś“
7.9%
1-0
7.7%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.7%
Hamrun Spartans goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
08.2%8.4%6.6%3.1%1.1%
17.7%14%8.5%3.9%1.3%
25.7%7.9%5.5%2.5%0.9%
32.5%3.4%2.3%1.1%0.4%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamrun Spartans goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa LucĂ­a
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.46
Hamrun Spartans is 0.88 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (2.65 vs 1.77).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa LucĂ­a
0.77
Hamrun Spartans is 0.08 goals worse than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.81).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa LucĂ­a
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
PietĂ  Hotspurs
2.50
Hamrun Spartans is 0.88 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L11D20W20W10W10W10W10W00DA·LEV11/08A·FK 18/08H·FK 25/08A·HIB29/08H·PIE04/09H·MAR07/09A·SIR10/09H·FLO01/10A·VAL08/10A·BIR15/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.330.860.140.620.50
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.500.500.001.50
vs Similar (7)0.570.140.670.000.500.25
vs Weaker (4)1.500.001.500.001.500.00
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W02L10W11D01L00DH·GUD20/08A·MAR27/08H·HIB04/09A·PIE10/09H·SIR01/10A·FLO08/10H·VAL15/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.710.860.251.001.330.67
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (5)1.000.800.331.002.000.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %29% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D22D21W00D00D10W10W00D00DA·LEV11/08A·FK 18/08H·FK 25/08A·HIB29/08H·PIE04/09H·MAR07/09A·SIR10/09H·FLO01/10A·VAL08/10A·BIR15/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.471.000.570.750.38
vs Stronger (4)1.251.251.001.501.501.00
vs Similar (7)0.710.141.670.330.000.00
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W03L31W00D10W31WH·GUD20/08A·MAR27/08H·HIB04/09A·PIE10/09H·SIR01/10A·FLO08/10H·VAL15/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.290.861.001.251.670.33
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (5)1.401.001.001.332.000.50
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.6%-------âś“ Hit
Under 3.572.3%-------âś“ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Hamrun Spartans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Semir Smajlagić20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ante Ćorić17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Ĺ imkus0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ederson40%
Joseph Mbong40%
Vincenzo Polito40%
Matias Garcia25%
Emerson20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ognjen Bjeličić17%
Henry Bonello17%
Jovan Čađenović17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Domantas Ĺ imkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jovan Čađenović17%
Rafael Compri17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Domantas Ĺ imkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N'Dri Koffi50%
Matias Garcia25%
Ederson20%
Semir Smajlagić20%
Serigne Saliou Thioune20%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Ĺ imkus0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's squad is €2m more valuable than Mosta's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's midfield is €2m more valuable than Mosta's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
HS wins
0
Draws
0
MOS wins

Head-to-head

Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta · H/A from HS
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22ABirkirkara Vs HS0-0
08/10/22AValletta FC Vs HS0-1
01/10/22HHS Vs Floriana2-0
10/09/22ASirens Vs HS0-2
07/09/22HHS Vs Marsaxlokk1-0
04/09/22HHS Vs PietĂ  Hotspurs2-0
29/08/22AHibernians Vs HS1-4
25/08/22HHS Vs FK Partizan3-3
18/08/22AFK Partizan Vs HS4-1
11/08/22ALevski Sofia Vs HS1-2

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22HMOS Vs Valletta FC3-1
08/10/22AFloriana Vs MOS1-1
01/10/22HMOS Vs Sirens1-1
10/09/22APietĂ  Hotspurs Vs MOS1-4
04/09/22HMOS Vs Hibernians0-5
27/08/22AMarsaxlokk Vs MOS1-4
20/08/22HMOS Vs Gudja United1-2

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD2.13
HomeLDWWW2.29
AwayLWWWD2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%71%62%
AVG goals2.402.572.25
Over 1.5 %53%57%50%
Over 2.5 %33%29%38%
Over 3.5 %27%29%25%
Scored1.601.861.38
Conceded0.800.710.88
BTTS33%29%38%
Clean Sheet53%57%50%
Corners10.6010.3311.00
Cards5.205.005.50
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDW1.57
HomeLLDW1.00
AwayWWD2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%25%67%
AVG goals3.713.504.00
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %71%75%67%
Over 3.5 %57%50%67%
Scored2.001.253.00
Conceded1.712.251.00
BTTS86%75%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucĂ­aSanta LucĂ­a2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14PietĂ  HotspursPietĂ  Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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