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Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta Result & Analysis

Date: 05/11/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 1-1
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Vs
45%
32%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hamrun Spartans win✗ Miss
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W10W16L12L10W40W30W40W11D21WH·DIN25/07A·DIN03/08H·FER10/08A·FER17/08H·BAL16/09A·NAX23/09H·GUD27/09A·SIR01/10H·SLI21/10A·VAL28/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.831.530.801.930.87
vs Stronger (2)1.004.001.006.001.002.00
vs Similar (9)1.001.000.801.201.250.75
vs Weaker (19)2.160.422.000.002.300.80
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W23L50W21W00D11D03L11D20W32WA·GZI01/04H·BAL10/04A·ZEB15/04H·SAN21/04H·GUD17/09A·SIR22/09H·SLI27/09A·VAL30/09A·BIR21/10H·MAR28/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.231.531.471.731.00
vs Stronger (5)1.001.601.001.671.001.50
vs Similar (21)1.711.291.801.701.640.91
vs Weaker (4)2.000.501.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.3%
Under 1.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.0%
Under 2.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.1%
Under 3.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.0%
No
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%
1-0
14.1%
0-0
13.6%
2-0
9.7%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.4%
Hamrun Spartans goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
014%9.0%4.4%1.2%0.3%
114%14%5.5%1.5%0.3%
29.7%8.2%3.4%1.0%0.2%
34.0%3.4%1.4%0.4%0.1%
41.3%1.1%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamrun Spartans goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Hamrun Spartans is 1.19 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Hamrun Spartans is 1.62 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (2.35 vs 0.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Hamrun Spartans is 0.62 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.62 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L11D00D20W20W20W10W20WH·DIN25/07A·DIN03/08H·FER10/08A·FER17/08H·BAL16/09A·NAX23/09H·GUD27/09A·SIR01/10H·SLI21/10A·VAL28/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.230.600.201.200.27
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.220.400.401.000.00
vs Weaker (19)1.050.160.780.001.300.30
Clean sheet %83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D20W01L00D00D00D10W10W21WA·GZI01/04H·BAL10/04A·ZEB15/04H·SAN21/04H·GUD17/09A·SIR22/09H·SLI27/09A·VAL30/09A·BIR21/10H·MAR28/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.470.730.800.47
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.330.670.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.710.620.600.900.820.36
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W00D15L01L10W20W10W20W01L01LH·DIN25/07A·DIN03/08H·FER10/08A·FER17/08H·BAL16/09A·NAX23/09H·GUD27/09A·SIR01/10H·SLI21/10A·VAL28/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.930.600.730.60
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.005.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.330.780.400.800.250.75
vs Weaker (19)1.110.261.220.001.000.50
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L30W20W00D11D03L01L10W11DA·GZI01/04H·BAL10/04A·ZEB15/04H·SAN21/04H·GUD17/09A·SIR22/09H·SLI27/09A·VAL30/09A·BIR21/10H·MAR28/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.631.070.730.930.53
vs Stronger (5)0.800.800.671.001.000.50
vs Similar (21)1.000.671.200.800.820.55
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.9%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Hamrun Spartans
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joseph Mbong67%
Seth Paintsil0%
Julian Nenov0%
Federico Marchetti0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Steve Borg0%
Juan Corbalan0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Nenov33%
Federico Marchetti33%
Ognjen Bjeličić33%
Steve Borg33%
Juan Corbalan33%
Joseph Mbong33%
Seth Paintsil0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Seth Paintsil0%
Julian Nenov0%
Federico Marchetti0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Steve Borg0%
Juan Corbalan0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ognjen Bjeličić33%
Seth Paintsil0%
Julian Nenov0%
Federico Marchetti0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Steve Borg0%
Juan Corbalan0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's squad is €2m more valuable than Mosta's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's midfield is €2m more valuable than Mosta's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
HS wins
0
Draws
0
MOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta · H/A from HS
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/23AMosta Vs HS1-2
22/10/22HHS Vs Mosta2-1

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23AValletta FC Vs HS1-2
21/10/23HHS Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
01/10/23ASirens Vs HS0-4
27/09/23HHS Vs Gudja United3-0
23/09/23ANaxxar Lions Vs HS0-4
16/09/23HHS Vs Balzan FC1-0
17/08/23AFerencvarosi TC Vs HS2-1
10/08/23HHS Vs Ferencvarosi TC1-6
03/08/23ADinamo Tbilisi Vs HS0-1
25/07/23HHS Vs Dinamo Tbilisi2-1

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23HMOS Vs Marsaxlokk3-2
21/10/23ABirkirkara Vs MOS0-2
30/09/23AValletta FC Vs MOS1-1
27/09/23HMOS Vs Sliema Wanderers0-3
22/09/23ASirens Vs MOS1-1
17/09/23HMOS Vs Gudja United0-0
21/04/23HMOS Vs Santa Lucía2-1
15/04/23AZebbug Rangers Vs MOS0-5
10/04/23HMOS Vs Balzan FC2-3
01/04/23AGzira United Vs MOS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.26
HomeWLWWD2.35
AwayWLWWW2.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%74%70%
AVG goals2.522.432.61
Over 1.5 %63%61%65%
Over 2.5 %48%39%57%
Over 3.5 %24%22%26%
Scored1.701.651.74
Conceded0.830.780.87
BTTS37%26%48%
Clean Sheet57%65%48%
Corners9.008.839.20
Cards4.645.333.80
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.72
HomeLWDLW1.50
AwayWWDDW1.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%44%56%
AVG goals2.943.002.88
Over 1.5 %94%94%94%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %25%31%19%
Scored1.691.501.88
Conceded1.251.501.00
BTTS66%56%75%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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