Hamrun Spartans are set to defend a tight, low-scoring fixture, with the model projecting a 49% chance of a home win, a 31% draw, and a 20% away victory. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for the Spartans, a 15.7% probability that the score will be 1-0, while the average total goals expected is 2.0, with a 28% chance that the match will finish with exactly two goals. The Spartans, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Sliema Wanderers, on the road, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Recent form shows Hamrun coming off a draw, while Sliema enters after a win. The model’s single selection is Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.8% probability.
Results analysis
The surprise came early as the pre-match favourite, Hamrun Spartans, failed to secure the win, ending the game in a 1-1 draw. The model had tipped a home win with a 49% probability, but that call proved incorrect. The match finished 1-1, a result that matched the model’s most likely score of 1-0 but not the predicted 1-1. The only other selection made by the model was Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.8% chance, and that hit. Hamrun Spartans, coming off a draw, and Sliema Wanderers, fresh from a win, both saw their recent form reflected in the stalemate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamrun Spartans win✗ Miss
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamrun Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.80
1.60
0.80
1.80
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
4.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.88
0.75
1.25
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
2.15
0.45
2.00
0.10
2.30
0.80
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.50
2.47
0.33
2.07
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.60
0.40
3.33
0.00
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.20
0.52
2.25
0.42
2.15
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.3%
No
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.7%
0-0
14.1%
1-1 ✓
13.7%
2-0
11.2%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
4.9%
1-2
4.6%
Hamrun Spartans goals ↓
Sliema Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.2%
3.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.6%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
8.2%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
4.9%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamrun Spartans goals (down), columns = Sliema Wanderers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Hamrun Spartans is 0.46 points better than Sliema Wanderers in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Valletta FC
1.00
Balzan FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Hamrun Spartans is 1.04 goals better than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (2.35 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Hibernians
1.08
Balzan FC
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Hamrun Spartans is 0.15 goals worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.62 vs 0.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamrun Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.23
0.60
0.20
1.07
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.15
0.80
0.00
1.30
0.30
Clean sheet %
83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.12
1.17
0.17
0.67
0.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.14
1.27
0.18
0.70
0.10
Clean sheet %
88% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamrun Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.00
0.60
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.10
0.30
1.20
0.10
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.42
0.92
0.25
1.17
0.58
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.38
0.91
0.27
1.20
0.50
Clean sheet %
62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamrun Spartans
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joseph Mbong67%
Seth Paintsil0%
Julian Nenov0%
Federico Marchetti0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Steve Borg0%
Juan Corbalan0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Nenov33%
Federico Marchetti33%
Ognjen Bjeličić33%
Steve Borg33%
Juan Corbalan33%
Joseph Mbong33%
Seth Paintsil0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Seth Paintsil0%
Julian Nenov0%
Federico Marchetti0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Steve Borg0%
Juan Corbalan0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ognjen Bjeličić33%
Seth Paintsil0%
Julian Nenov0%
Federico Marchetti0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Eder0%
Steve Borg0%
Juan Corbalan0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Jonny0%
Elionay0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's squad is €2m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's attack is €2m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Sliema Wanderers have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Sliema Wanderers have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Hibernians
Naxxar Lions
Balzan FC
Gzira United
Mosta
Santa Lucía
Valletta FC
Sirens
Gudja United