The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Maccabi Herzliya, 29% for a home win and 29% for a draw. The expected total is 2.6 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.7% probability. Hapoel Afula, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.08 conceded. Maccabi Herzliya, on the road, averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.2%), Under 4.5 (88.2%) and Away +2 handicap (88.0%). Hapoel Afula are on a four-game winning streak, having won their last four before a loss, while Maccabi Herzliya are recovering from two consecutive defeats, having lost their last two. The match is poised to be a tightly contested affair with the away side holding a slight edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Afula win
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya win
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Afula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.06
1.12
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.36
1.00
1.08
1.42
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Herzliya
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.33
1.60
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.50
1.33
1.60
1.46
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.7%
1-2
8.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-2
7.8%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
Hapoel Afula goals ↓
Maccabi Herzliya goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
9.7%
7.8%
3.7%
1.3%
1
7.5%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.0%
7.1%
5.1%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Afula goals (down), columns = Maccabi Herzliya goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula is 0.46 points worse than Maccabi Herzliya in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Afula is 0.43 goals worse than Maccabi Herzliya in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Afula is 0.38 goals worse than Maccabi Herzliya in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Afula or Draw
57.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers Hapoel Afula + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula or Maccabi Herzliya
71.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers Hapoel Afula + Maccabi Herzliya
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
71.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers Draw + Maccabi Herzliya
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Afula, so a minus line means Hapoel Afula give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Herzliya receive them. At -1, Hapoel Afula must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Afula win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hapoel Afula)
Hapoel Afula -2
3.7%
Draw -2
8.3%
Maccabi Herzliya +2
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hapoel Afula)
Hapoel Afula -1
12.0%
Draw -1
16.8%
Maccabi Herzliya +1
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Afula)
Hapoel Afula +1
57.6%
Draw +1
21.4%
Maccabi Herzliya -1
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Afula)
Hapoel Afula +2
79.0%
Draw +2
13.0%
Maccabi Herzliya -2
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Afula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.75
0.38
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.44
0.77
0.38
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Herzliya
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.54
0.67
0.67
0.77
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Afula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.75
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.92
0.23
0.69
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Herzliya
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.96
0.67
0.93
0.69
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Hapoel Afula and Maccabi Herzliya have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Hapoel Afula and Maccabi Herzliya have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Hapoel Afula and Maccabi Herzliya have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Hapoel Afula and Maccabi Herzliya have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →