PythiaFootballBETA
Hapoel Beer Sheva is the clear favourite to win at home, with the model predicting a 64% chance of success. This is largely due to their strong home form against similar opponents, having scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded just 0.67. In contrast, Maccabi Haifa has struggled away from home, averaging only 0.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against similar opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 3.2, suggesting a high-scoring encounter. The most likely score is 2-1 to Hapoel Beer Sheva, with a probability of 9.9%. The model's selection is the home win, with a predicted probability of 64%.
The model also suggests taking the Over 1.5 goals, which has a 83.9% probability of being correct. Hapoel Beer Sheva has a 64% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 15% chance of losing. Maccabi Haifa's away win percentage is 15%, while the draw percentage is 21%.
In a major upset, Maccabi Haifa secured a 5-2 victory over Hapoel Beer Sheva, extending their run of consecutive wins to two games. The win was a surprise, as Hapoel Beer Sheva were the pre-match favourites with a 64% probability of winning. However, the model's selection, a Home win, ultimately proved incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Maccabi Haifa won the match. The model's selection was not the only one to miss out, as suggested pick 'Home win' also MISSED. However, suggested pick 'Over 1.5' HIT, with an 83.9% probability. The final score of 2-5 reflected the actual result, with Maccabi Haifa emerging victorious.
Hapoel Beer Sheva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 0.97 | 2.00 | 0.87 | 1.80 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 2.00 | 1.04 | 2.08 | 0.92 | 1.92 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Maccabi Haifa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.40 | 2.20 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.88 | 1.38 | 2.33 | 1.17 | 1.42 | 1.58 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Maccabi Haifa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 9.8% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 7.3% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Hapoel Beer ShevaMaccabi HaifaHapoel Beer Sheva| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 29.3 | 29.2 | 29.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 10.6 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 30.5 | 29.6 | 31.4 |
| vs Weaker (35) | 9.0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 28.8 | 29.1 | 28.5 |
| % over line | 47% | 50% | 44% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 91% | 88% | 94% |
| % under line | 53% | 50% | 56% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 9% | 12% | 6% |
Maccabi Haifa| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 27.1 | 27.1 | 27.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 8.9 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 29.7 | 29.3 | 30.2 |
| vs Weaker (37) | 8.2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 25.8 | 26.0 | 25.5 |
| % over line | 35% | 28% | 44% | 52% | 58% | 46% | 82% | 83% | 81% |
| % under line | 65% | 72% | 56% | 48% | 42% | 54% | 18% | 17% | 19% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 90.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/01/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 29/09/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/05/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 07/04/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 03/03/25 | H | 3-3 | |
| 04/12/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/05/24 | H | 1-4 |
Hapoel Beer Sheva| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 06/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-3 |
Maccabi Haifa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 06/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 29/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 36 | 79 | 67% | 2.2 | 79 | 38 | +41 | 3.2 | 78% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 58% | 5.8 | 88% | 28.7 | 92% | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Beitar Jerusalem | 36 | 76 | 61% | 2.1 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.3 | 78% | 64% | 39% | 8.8 | 42% | 6.0 | 85% | 29.1 | 88% | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 57% |
| 3 |  Maccabi Tel Aviv | 35 | 63 | 51% | 1.8 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.4 | 83% | 69% | 54% | 9.4 | 44% | 5.6 | 96% | 30.3 | 100% | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 4 |  Hapoel Tel Aviv | 35 | 62 | 51% | 1.8 | 55 | 35 | +20 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 8.5 | 36% | 6.1 | 80% | 29.9 | 92% | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 5 | Maccabi Haifa | 36 | 55 | 42% | 1.5 | 66 | 47 | +19 | 3.1 | 81% | 61% | 44% | 8.7 | 38% | 5.1 | 80% | 26.7 | 81% | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 6 |  Maccabi Netanya | 33 | 48 | 42% | 1.5 | 59 | 63 | -4 | 3.7 | 91% | 67% | 45% | 9.0 | 27% | 6.4 | 91% | 26.0 | 77% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 50% |
| 7 |  Ironi Tiberias | 33 | 44 | 36% | 1.3 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 3.1 | 85% | 45% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 |  Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 3.1 | 82% | 64% | 45% | 8.3 | 32% | 5.0 | 73% | 27.3 | 82% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 9 |  Hapoel Petah Tikva | 36 | 40 | 25% | 1.1 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 56% | 44% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 |  Hapoel Haifa | 33 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 2.7 | 73% | 42% | 30% | 9.8 | 45% | 5.5 | 91% | 27.0 | 82% | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 43% |
| 11 |  Bnei Sakhnin | 33 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.3 | 76% | 45% | 18% | 9.3 | 36% | 4.7 | 77% | 25.2 | 64% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 39% |
| 12 |  Hapoel Katamon | 33 | 31 | 21% | 0.9 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 2.1 | 61% | 39% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 |  Ashdod | 33 | 28 | 18% | 0.8 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 3.0 | 82% | 58% | 33% | 8.7 | 32% | 5.6 | 77% | 27.8 | 86% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 46% |
| 14 |  Maccabi Bnei Raina | 33 | 22 | 18% | 0.7 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 2.9 | 76% | 58% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | - |