Pythia gives Hapoel Haifa a 44% win probability against Bnei Sakhnin in the Israel: Ligat Ha'al on 2026-05-18, with 28% for the draw and 28% for Bnei Sakhnin. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (92%), Over 2.5 cards (85%), Over 21.5 fouls (84%), Under 11.5 corners (82%).
Results analysis
Hapoel Haifa finished 3-0 against Bnei Sakhnin (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 28% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (92%), Over 2.5 cards (85%), Over 21.5 fouls (84%), Under 11.5 corners (82%), Over 1.5 (77%), Under 10.5 corners (72%), Under 3.5 (71%). Missed: Over 23.5 fouls (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Haifa win✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Haifa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.63
1.40
2.00
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
2.30
2.00
3.00
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.24
1.12
1.38
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Sakhnin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.94
1.31
0.71
1.57
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
1.88
0.78
1.67
0.62
2.12
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.85
1.14
0.86
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Haifa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
7.7%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
Hapoel Haifa goals ↓
Bnei Sakhnin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
6.6%
4.6%
1.8%
0.6%
1
8.8%
13%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.2%
5.5%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.9%
4.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Haifa goals (down), columns = Bnei Sakhnin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.67
Hapoel Haifa and Bnei Sakhnin are level in average points per game (both 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Ashdod
1.15
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.79
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Hapoel Haifa is 0.33 goals better than Bnei Sakhnin in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Ashdod
1.88
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.09
Hapoel Haifa is 0.06 goals worse than Bnei Sakhnin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Ashdod
46%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Hapoel Haifa is 4.7 percentage points better than Bnei Sakhnin in terms of average possession (43% vs 39%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hapoel Haifa
For 4.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.6 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bnei Sakhnin
For 2.9 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hapoel Haifa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.6
3.7
4.0
3.5
26.2
26.6
25.8
vs Stronger (21)
9.0
8.1
9.7
4.9
4.6
5.1
26.5
26.2
26.7
vs Similar (26)
9.5
9.6
9.3
3.2
4.1
2.2
25.9
26.9
24.3
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
35%
33%
38%
60%
62%
58%
82%
89%
75%
% under line
65%
67%
62%
40%
38%
42%
18%
11%
25%
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Sakhnin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.1
2.8
3.1
2.4
25.9
28.1
23.9
vs Stronger (26)
9.6
8.1
11.0
2.9
3.5
2.2
25.8
28.1
23.4
vs Similar (24)
9.5
10.4
8.9
2.6
2.7
2.5
26.0
28.0
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
29%
56%
46%
54%
38%
67%
79%
56%
% under line
57%
71%
44%
54%
46%
62%
33%
21%
44%
This opponent (Hapoel Haifa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bnei Sakhnin
9.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.4
Hapoel Tel Aviv
9.2
Hapoel Haifa
9.1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
8.9
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.9
Ashdod
8.8
Beitar Jerusalem
8.7
Maccabi Netanya
8.7
Maccabi Haifa
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
6.1
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.6
Hapoel Haifa
5.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.5
Beitar Jerusalem
5.4
Maccabi Haifa
5.2
Ashdod
5.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
4.9
Bnei Sakhnin
4.8
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
28.4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Beitar Jerusalem
27.7
Maccabi Haifa
27.5
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
26.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
26.1
Hapoel Haifa
25.9
Ashdod
25.2
Maccabi Netanya
25.1
Bnei Sakhnin
24.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.6%
Under 9.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.8%
Under 3.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.8%
Under 21.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Haifa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.10
0.80
1.40
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.38
0.38
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Sakhnin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.38
0.50
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.29
1.00
0.22
0.67
0.38
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.38
0.57
0.29
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Haifa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Haifa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Haifa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Haifa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (38)
€46m
MH (46)
€30m
HBS (33)
€25m
BJ (39)
€20m
HTA (39)
€17m
MN (36)
€12m
HK (34)
€11m
HPT (36)
€9m
IKS (31)
€8m
ASH (42)
€8m
HH (40)
€7m
MBR (35)
€6m
IT (29)
€5m
BS (39)
€5m
Hapoel Haifa's squad is €2m more valuable than Bnei Sakhnin's (€7m vs €5m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →