Pythia gives Hapoel Haifa a 47% win probability against Maccabi Bnei Raina in the Israel: Ligat Ha'al on 2026-04-18, with 26% for the draw and 27% for Maccabi Bnei Raina. The model estimates around 3.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Over 3.5 cards (82%), Over 1.5 (81%).
Results analysis
Hapoel Haifa finished 2-3 against Maccabi Bnei Raina (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 47% home win, 26% draw and 27% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (81%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Haifa win✗ Miss
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina win✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Haifa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.70
1.40
1.87
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
2.23
1.83
2.50
1.29
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.33
1.25
1.50
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.13
0.80
2.20
0.67
2.07
vs Stronger (21)
0.76
2.62
0.90
2.90
0.64
2.36
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Haifa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
Hapoel Haifa goals ↓
Maccabi Bnei Raina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.3%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.6%
12%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.5%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.4%
5.5%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.9%
2.4%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Haifa goals (down), columns = Maccabi Bnei Raina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.67
Hapoel Haifa is 0.36 points better than Maccabi Bnei Raina in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Ashdod
1.15
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.79
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Hapoel Haifa is 0.39 goals better than Maccabi Bnei Raina in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Ashdod
1.88
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.09
Hapoel Haifa is 0.55 goals better than Maccabi Bnei Raina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 2.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Ashdod
46%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hapoel Haifa
For 3.7 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maccabi Bnei Raina
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Hapoel Haifa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.0
9.2
3.9
4.3
3.3
25.6
25.5
25.8
vs Stronger (23)
9.2
8.7
9.7
5.0
4.8
5.1
26.4
26.1
26.7
vs Similar (23)
8.8
9.1
8.0
3.3
4.2
2.1
25.3
26.0
23.5
vs Weaker (4)
10.0
10.0
-
1.0
2.0
0.0
15.0
15.0
-
% over line
37%
38%
36%
62%
67%
57%
83%
86%
79%
% under line
63%
62%
64%
38%
33%
43%
17%
14%
21%
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Hapoel Haifa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.7
Bnei Sakhnin
9.6
Hapoel Tel Aviv
9.3
Beitar Jerusalem
9.0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
9.0
Hapoel Haifa
9.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.8
Maccabi Netanya
8.7
Ashdod
8.7
Maccabi Haifa
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
5.9
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.6
Hapoel Haifa
5.6
Maccabi Haifa
5.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
Beitar Jerusalem
5.2
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.9
Maccabi Tel Aviv
4.9
Bnei Sakhnin
4.8
Ashdod
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
27.4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
27.3
Maccabi Tel Aviv
27.3
Maccabi Haifa
27.3
Beitar Jerusalem
26.7
Hapoel Haifa
25.5
Maccabi Netanya
25.2
Bnei Sakhnin
24.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
24.7
Ashdod
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.8%
Under 9.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
82.0%
Under 3.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 21.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
💰 10. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (38)
€46m
MH (46)
€30m
HBS (33)
€25m
BJ (39)
€20m
HTA (39)
€17m
MN (36)
€12m
HK (34)
€11m
HPT (36)
€9m
IKS (31)
€8m
ASH (42)
€8m
HH (40)
€7m
MBR (35)
€6m
IT (29)
€5m
BS (39)
€5m
Hapoel Haifa's squad is €1m more valuable than Maccabi Bnei Raina's (€7m vs €6m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →