Hapoel Katamon are tipped to win, with a 50% chance of a home victory, 27% for a draw and 23% for a Hapoel Petah Tikva win. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Hapoel Katamon, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 0.64 goals scored and 0.64 conceded, while Hapoel Petah Tikva, on the road, average 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1%), Home +2 handicap (91.0%) and Under 4.5 (86.8%). The home side’s recent form shows a win after a defeat, while the away side has suffered five straight losses.
Results analysis
The final score of 3-1 confirmed the model’s pick for a home win, with Hapoel Katamon overcoming a recent defeat to extend their winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 50% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 5.5 at 94.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.9%, Away under 2.5 goals at 91.1%, Home +2 handicap at 91.0%, and Under 4.5 at 86.8%. All predictions were settled and each hit the mark, showcasing the model’s accuracy in this match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Katamon win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Katamon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.13
0.64
0.93
1.00
1.31
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.17
0.67
2.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.88
0.64
0.64
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.80
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.82
1.20
1.80
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.35
0.89
0.89
1.38
1.88
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.2%
0-1
6.1%
3-1 ✓
5.1%
Hapoel Katamon goals ↓
Hapoel Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
6.1%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.2%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.5%
5.0%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.9%
5.1%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Katamon goals (down), columns = Hapoel Petah Tikva goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3.00
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.00
Maccabi Netanya
2.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.80
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Hapoel Katamon is 0.60 points better than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67
Hapoel Katamon
1.60
Maccabi Netanya
1.60
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Bnei Sakhnin
1.20
Ironi Tiberias
1.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Hapoel Katamon is 0.20 goals worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beitar Jerusalem
0.33
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.40
Ironi Tiberias
1.40
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.60
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.00
Maccabi Haifa
2.00
Hapoel Katamon is 0.40 goals better than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Katamon or Draw✓ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Hapoel Katamon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon or Hapoel Petah Tikva✓ Hit
72.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Hapoel Katamon + Hapoel Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva✗ Miss
50.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Hapoel Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.1%
Under
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Katamon, so a minus line means Hapoel Katamon give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Petah Tikva receive them. At -1, Hapoel Katamon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Katamon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.40
0.47
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.47
0.11
0.22
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Katamon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.29
0.43
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.50
0.36
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.80
0.73
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.88
0.78
0.67
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Hapoel Katamon and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Hapoel Katamon and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Hapoel Katamon and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Hapoel Katamon's defence is €1m more valuable than Hapoel Petah Tikva's (€3m vs €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →