Hapoel Katamon is tipped to lift the trophy in a 51% home-win scenario, the most likely outcome according to the model. The match is expected to see about 2.4 goals, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 13.3%. Hapoel’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Maccabi Petah Tikva, on the road, nets 1.3 and concedes 1.4 against the same tier. The draw probability sits at 28%, and the away win chance is 21%. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 90%, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 77.8%, Under 3.5 at 77.3% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 76.6%, and Over 1.5 at 71.0% (hit). The home side’s recent form has dipped after two straight defeats, whereas the away side rides a four-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The final score of 4-1 for Hapoel Katamon was a decisive home win that far exceeded the model’s expected total of 2.4 goals. The model had picked a home win with a 51% probability, and this call was correct. The Under 3.5 selection, with a 77.3% probability, missed, while the Over 1.5 pick, at 71%, hit. Hapoel Katamon’s recent form shows two straight defeats before this victory, extending their run to a win, whereas Maccabi Petah Tikva, on a four-game winning streak, fell short. The match delivered more goals than the most likely 2-goal outcome, confirming the model’s prediction of a high-scoring home triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Katamon win✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva win✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Katamon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.23
1.40
0.80
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.43
1.67
0.67
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.17
1.33
0.83
1.09
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.80
1.00
1.80
0.93
1.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.75
0.00
3.00
0.20
2.60
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.45
1.25
1.50
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.3%
2-0
10.3%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
Hapoel Katamon goals ↓
Maccabi Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.7%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.3%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.3%
4.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Katamon goals (down), columns = Maccabi Petah Tikva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.22
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.17
Maccabi Haifa
1.69
Beitar Jerusalem
1.50
Hapoel Haifa
1.44
Hapoel Katamon
1.33
Maccabi Netanya
1.25
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.24
Bnei Sakhnin
1.15
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.12
Ashdod
1.06
Ironi Tiberias
1.06
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.00
Hapoel Hadera
0.82
Hapoel Katamon is 0.33 points better than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.33
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.08
Maccabi Haifa
1.86
Beitar Jerusalem
1.61
Ashdod
1.45
Hapoel Katamon
1.42
Hapoel Haifa
1.42
Maccabi Netanya
1.42
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.09
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.97
Hapoel Hadera
0.94
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94
Ironi Tiberias
0.85
Bnei Sakhnin
0.82
Hapoel Katamon is 0.48 goals better than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.78
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.27
Hapoel Katamon
1.27
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.30
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Haifa
1.39
Maccabi Haifa
1.47
Beitar Jerusalem
1.50
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.52
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.58
Maccabi Netanya
1.61
Ashdod
1.67
Hapoel Hadera
1.73
Hapoel Katamon is 0.24 goals better than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Beitar Jerusalem
61%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
59%
Maccabi Haifa
57%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
55%
Bnei Sakhnin
49%
Maccabi Netanya
47%
Hapoel Haifa
46%
Maccabi Petah Tikva
45%
Ashdod
44%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
43%
Hapoel Hadera
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hapoel Katamon
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
For 3.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 11.9 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hapoel Katamon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.7
9.8
2.8
2.7
3.0
24.4
26.8
21.8
vs Stronger (11)
10.1
8.5
12.3
3.3
3.7
2.8
23.7
25.0
22.3
vs Similar (39)
8.1
7.4
9.0
2.7
2.4
3.1
24.6
27.3
21.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
33%
46%
46%
42%
50%
64%
92%
33%
% under line
61%
67%
54%
54%
58%
50%
36%
8%
67%
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
10.1
Maccabi Tel Aviv
10.0
Maccabi Haifa
9.7
Beitar Jerusalem
9.7
Bnei Sakhnin
9.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.4
Hapoel Haifa
9.4
Maccabi Netanya
9.3
Hapoel Hadera
9.1
Maccabi Petah Tikva
8.6
Ashdod
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
5.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.1
Maccabi Haifa
5.1
Hapoel Hadera
5.0
Beitar Jerusalem
4.9
Hapoel Haifa
4.9
Maccabi Tel Aviv
4.9
Maccabi Petah Tikva
4.7
Bnei Sakhnin
4.6
Ashdod
4.6
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
26.0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
25.5
Maccabi Petah Tikva
24.4
Hapoel Haifa
24.1
Maccabi Haifa
23.1
Maccabi Netanya
22.8
Maccabi Tel Aviv
22.8
Ashdod
21.9
Hapoel Hadera
21.7
Beitar Jerusalem
21.5
Bnei Sakhnin
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.1%
Under 9.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
77.8%
Under 3.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.7%
Under 21.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Katamon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.33
0.47
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.65
0.42
0.50
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.67
0.93
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.77
0.83
0.67
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Katamon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
1.07
0.33
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.43
1.67
0.33
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.52
0.92
0.33
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.68
0.42
0.83
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Wilson Harris33%
Anas Mahamid22%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Alon Azugi11%
Luka Štor8%
Tamir Glazer7%
Ido Cohen7%
Muhammad Handy6%
Liran Hazan6%
Idan Vered5%
Marco Wolff0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Aviv Salem0%
Eden Shamir0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gal Gabi Maatuk100%
Andreas Karo42%
Jordy Soladio29%
Eyal Golasa27%
Yarden Cohen27%
Rushine De Reuck25%
Muhammad Handy25%
Niv Yehoshua24%
Tamir Glazer21%
Aviv Salem19%
Plamen Galabov15%
Idan Vered15%
Marco Wolff13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Wilson Harris11%
Alon Azugi11%
Eden Shamir11%
Ido Cohen7%
Anas Mahamid6%
Liran Hazan6%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Luka Štor0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yarden Cohen13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Niv Yehoshua10%
Aviv Salem6%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Wilson Harris0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Anas Mahamid0%
Alon Azugi0%
Eden Shamir0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Tamir Glazer0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitalie Damașcan19%
Wilson Harris11%
Anas Mahamid11%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Tamir Glazer7%
Eden Shamir5%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Alon Azugi0%
Aviv Salem0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
ASH (23)
€4m
MBR (18)
€3m
Hapoel Katamon and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
MBR (8)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
Hapoel Katamon's attack is €2m less valuable than Maccabi Petah Tikva's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HK (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
MBR (2)
€0m
Hapoel Katamon and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
ASH (9)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
Hapoel Katamon's defence is €1m more valuable than Maccabi Petah Tikva's (€3m vs €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
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Hapoel Beer Sheva
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Beitar Jerusalem
Hapoel Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Bnei Sakhnin
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ashdod
Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Hadera