The model predicts an away win for Maccabi Kiryat Gat, with a 48% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Hapoel Kfar Saba win. The expected total goals hover around 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.7% chance. Hapoel Kfar Saba, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.79 conceded, while Maccabi Kiryat Gat, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (93.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.3%), Away +2 handicap (89.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.3%) and Under 4.5 (84.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Saba win
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat win
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.79
1.44
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.79
1.44
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kiryat Gat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
8.4%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Hapoel Kfar Saba goals ↓
Maccabi Kiryat Gat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
9.0%
8.4%
4.6%
1.9%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.9%
6.5%
5.4%
3.0%
1.2%
3
1.5%
2.5%
2.1%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Kfar Saba goals (down), columns = Maccabi Kiryat Gat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Kfar Saba is 0.01 points better than Maccabi Kiryat Gat in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Kfar Saba is 0.05 goals better than Maccabi Kiryat Gat in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Kfar Saba is 0.01 goals better than Maccabi Kiryat Gat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Draw
51.6%
Avg Implied -
25%
27%
48%
covers Hapoel Kfar Saba + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
73.4%
Avg Implied -
25%
27%
48%
covers Hapoel Kfar Saba + Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
75.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
27%
48%
covers Draw + Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 1.5
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 2.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Kfar Saba, so a minus line means Hapoel Kfar Saba give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Kiryat Gat receive them. At -1, Hapoel Kfar Saba must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Kfar Saba win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hapoel Kfar Saba)
Hapoel Kfar Saba -2
3.1%
Draw -2
7.1%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat +2
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hapoel Kfar Saba)
Hapoel Kfar Saba -1
10.2%
Draw -1
14.8%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat +1
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Kfar Saba)
Hapoel Kfar Saba +1
51.6%
Draw +1
22.0%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat -1
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Kfar Saba)
Hapoel Kfar Saba +2
73.7%
Draw +2
15.1%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat -2
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.79
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.79
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kiryat Gat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.4%
Under 0.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.1%
Under 1.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.9%
Under 2.5
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kiryat Gat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.6%
Under 0.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.8%
Under 1.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
HKS wins
0
Draws
0
MKG wins
Head-to-head
Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · H/A from HKS
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →