Hapoel Kfar Shalem hosts Kafr Qasim in a Liga Leumit match on August 18, 2026, with the home side having won two of their last three games. This recent form has set the stage for a finely balanced encounter, as the statistics suggest a narrow margin of victory for either team. The model predicts a home win, with a 38% chance of Hapoel Kfar Shalem taking the three points.
The expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 13.5% of the time. The home side has scored an average of 2.5 goals at home against weaker opponents, conceding 2.17 goals. Meanwhile, Kafr Qasim has scored 1.25 goals away against stronger opponents, conceding 2.0 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with the away win percentage standing at 34%. The draw percentage is 28%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 with a probability of 75.9% and Under 3.5 with a probability of 72%.
Results analysis
Hapoel Kfar Shalem’s recent form, after a defeat, was a mixed LWWWL, but the win over Kafr Qasim extended their run. The final score was 2-0, a Home win that matched the model’s pick. The model had chosen a Home win with a 38 % probability, and it proved correct. The suggested selections performed largely as expected: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 94.8 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 86.0 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 84.8 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 83.7 %, Over 1.5 hit at 75.9 %, and Home over 0.5 goals hit at 75.0 %. Only the Away +2 handicap missed at 81.8 %. All outcomes were settled and the model’s predictions were largely accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.79
Edge
-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.49
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.65
1xBet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Kafr Qasim win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.84
Edge
+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.01
Dafabet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.94
Pinnacle
3.93
Betfair
3.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.80
1.79
2.00
2.00
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.93
1.85
1.69
2.00
2.14
1.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
3.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.27
0.93
1.33
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.96
1.32
1.00
1.43
0.93
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.20+0.4%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 3.71-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
10Bet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.71-3.6%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.97+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Under
Bet365
2.08
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
@ 2.71-5.5%
Under 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.37+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.6%
@ 1.65+0.4%
No
44.4%
@ 2.03-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
No
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.41+6.9%
2-1
8.5%@ 7.43+2.8%
1-0
8.3%@ 7.18+2.4%
0-0
8.1%@ 11.14+4.3%
1-2
7.9%@ 11.25+4.2%
0-1
7.7%@ 11.21+3.9%
2-0 ✓
6.6%@ 8.23+1.5%
0-2
5.7%@ 19.57+3.6%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem goals ↓
Kafr Qasim goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.7%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.3%
14%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.5%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.1%
3.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Kfar Shalem goals (down), columns = Kafr Qasim goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.41 points better than Kafr Qasim in terms of average points per game (1.51 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.68 goals better than Kafr Qasim in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.38 goals worse than Kafr Qasim in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Draw✓ Hit
66.4%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-9.6%
38%
28%
34%
covers Hapoel Kfar Shalem + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Kafr Qasim✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.22
Edge
-3.5%
38%
28%
34%
covers Hapoel Kfar Shalem + Kafr Qasim
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Draw or Kafr Qasim✗ Miss
62.0%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.87
Edge
+13.1%
38%
28%
34%
covers Draw + Kafr Qasim
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.0%
@ 1.15-4.6%
Under
25.0%
@ 4.47+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Under
1xBet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.3%
@ 1.79-11.3%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.90+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 3.45-10.3%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.25+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Under
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 7.80-6.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.05+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Bet365
7.50
Under
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.5%
@ 1.41+7.2%
Under
27.5%
@ 2.66-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.9%
@ 2.91+5.4%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.34-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Superbet
2.82
1xBet
2.80
Under
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 7.33+1.5%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.05-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
7.60
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Under
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Kafr Qasim over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 13.00-3.0%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Kfar Shalem, so a minus line means Hapoel Kfar Shalem give that many goals of a start and Kafr Qasim receive them. At -1, Hapoel Kfar Shalem must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Kfar Shalem win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.77
0.27
0.87
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.29
0.79
0.29
0.93
0.29
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.11
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.21
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.67
0.47
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.54
0.71
0.50
0.64
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
-
+13.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.20
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.20
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
-
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.5%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
1.22
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
-3.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Kafr Qasim have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Kafr Qasim have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Kafr Qasim have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Kafr Qasim have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →