Hapoel Kfar Shalem are favoured to win, with a 42% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 33% for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth. The model expects a total of 3.1 goals, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Hapoel’s home form shows 1.86 goals scored and 1.79 conceded against similar opposition, while Maccabi’s away record is 0.81 scored and 1.38 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 96.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 92.6%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.2%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 91.2%. Both sides come off recent wins, with Hapoel winning 3-2 and Maccabi 2-1 in their last matches.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.80
1.86
1.79
2.00
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
2.00
1.86
1.86
1.79
2.14
1.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.57
1.29
1.79
0.81
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.03
1.57
1.29
1.79
0.81
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.3%
2-0
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
0-1
5.4%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem goals ↓
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.4%
4.7%
2.3%
0.8%
1
6.3%
12%
7.8%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.9%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.4%
4.9%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.4%
2.0%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Kfar Shalem goals (down), columns = Maccabi Ahi Nazareth goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.17 points better than Maccabi Ahi Nazareth in terms of average points per game (1.51 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.45 goals better than Maccabi Ahi Nazareth in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.34 goals worse than Maccabi Ahi Nazareth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Draw
67.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
33%
covers Hapoel Kfar Shalem + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
74.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
33%
covers Hapoel Kfar Shalem + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
58.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
33%
covers Draw + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Kfar Shalem, so a minus line means Hapoel Kfar Shalem give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Ahi Nazareth receive them. At -1, Hapoel Kfar Shalem must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Kfar Shalem win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem -2
9.2%
Draw -2
12.8%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem -1
22.0%
Draw -1
19.6%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth +1
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem +1
67.3%
Draw +1
17.0%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem +2
84.3%
Draw +2
9.8%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.79
0.93
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.89
0.79
0.79
0.93
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.36
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.70
0.36
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.6%
Under 0.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
Under 1.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.8%
Under 2.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.07
0.86
1.06
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.07
1.07
0.86
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.0%
Under 0.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.5%
Under 1.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
Under 2.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
HKS wins
0
Draws
0
MAN wins
Head-to-head
Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · H/A from HKS
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →