Hapoel Kfar Shalem’s recent form shows a shaky start to the season, with a last-five record of LWWWL and a 1-3 loss to Bnei Yehuda, while Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have bounced back from two straight defeats, ending their last five with LLWWD after a 0-1 loss to Ashdod. The model predicts an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 38 % chance of a victory for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, a 25 % chance of a draw, and a 37 % chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover at 3.3, with the most probable total being 3 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9 % probability. Hapoel Kfar Shalem averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, playing away, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.9 %), Under 6.5 (94.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.1 %), Under 5.5 (88.0 %), Over 1.5 (85.4 %), Away over 0.5 goals (81.2 %), and Away +2 handicap (80.8 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.80
1.86
1.79
2.00
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
2.00
1.86
1.86
1.79
2.14
1.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.43
1.76
1.41
1.85
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.80
1.43
1.76
1.41
1.85
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
2-0
4.9%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.7%
1-0
4.6%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem goals ↓
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.5%
4.7%
2.6%
1.1%
1
4.6%
10%
8.1%
4.6%
1.9%
2
4.9%
8.2%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.8%
4.8%
4.1%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Kfar Shalem goals (down), columns = Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.14 points better than Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa in terms of average points per game (1.51 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.03 goals better than Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Kfar Shalem is 0.14 goals worse than Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Draw
62.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
37%
covers Hapoel Kfar Shalem + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
75.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
37%
covers Hapoel Kfar Shalem + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
61.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
37%
covers Draw + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5
Over
81.7%
Under
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 3.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Kfar Shalem, so a minus line means Hapoel Kfar Shalem give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa receive them. At -1, Hapoel Kfar Shalem must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Kfar Shalem win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem -2
8.6%
Draw -2
11.8%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa +2
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem -1
20.4%
Draw -1
18.1%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem +1
62.9%
Draw +1
17.7%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa -1
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Kfar Shalem)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem +2
80.6%
Draw +2
11.3%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa -2
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.79
0.93
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.89
0.79
0.79
0.93
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.82
0.59
0.62
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.57
0.82
0.59
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.07
0.86
1.06
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.07
1.07
0.86
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
0.94
0.82
1.23
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
0.87
0.94
0.82
1.23
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Shalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Hapoel Kfar Shalem and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →