The contest between Hapoel Petah Tikva and Bnei Sakhnin is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. Hapoel Petah Tikva, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.17 conceded, while Bnei Sakhnin, on the road against a stronger side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Home win probability sits at 31%, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 39%. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (92.8%), Over 2.5 cards (90.1%), Over 21.5 fouls (85.1%), Under 3.5 (78.8% miss), Over 3.5 cards (78.0%), Under 11.5 corners (77.2%), and Over 23.5 fouls (73.6%). Recent form shows Hapoel Petah Tikva coming off a win after a string of losses, while Bnei Sakhnin enters after a defeat. The match is poised for a tight, evenly contested game.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Bnei Sakhnin, failed to win. The final score was 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick of an away win incorrect. The model had given the away side a 39% chance of triumph, yet the match finished level. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, with a 78.8% probability, missed as the total goals reached four. Hapoel Petah Tikva were coming off a win and had a recent run of one win and four losses, while Bnei Sakhnin were coming off a defeat with a record of one win and three losses. The match ended in a draw, and the model’s prediction proved wrong.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Petah Tikva win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin win✗ Miss
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.83
1.75
0.94
1.71
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.48
0.90
1.78
1.11
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
2.62
0.25
2.00
0.17
4.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Sakhnin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
0.67
0.80
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.21
0.67
0.75
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.8%
0-1
10.7%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.7%
Hapoel Petah Tikva goals ↓
Bnei Sakhnin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
1
9.1%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.7%
7.2%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.1%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Petah Tikva goals (down), columns = Bnei Sakhnin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.67
Hapoel Petah Tikva is 0.08 points better than Bnei Sakhnin in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Ashdod
1.15
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.79
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Hapoel Petah Tikva is 0.48 goals better than Bnei Sakhnin in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Ashdod
1.88
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.09
Hapoel Petah Tikva is 0.10 goals worse than Bnei Sakhnin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Ashdod
46%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hapoel Petah Tikva
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bnei Sakhnin
For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 13.7 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Sakhnin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.9
9.2
2.7
2.9
2.5
26.1
26.2
25.9
vs Stronger (12)
10.2
10.7
9.5
3.9
4.7
3.2
27.6
29.0
25.5
vs Similar (38)
9.1
9.3
9.0
2.3
2.3
2.2
25.1
23.9
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
46%
46%
46%
50%
42%
77%
77%
77%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
54%
50%
58%
23%
23%
23%
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bnei Sakhnin
9.4
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
9.4
Hapoel Tel Aviv
9.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.1
Hapoel Haifa
9.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.9
Beitar Jerusalem
8.9
Maccabi Netanya
8.7
Ashdod
8.5
Maccabi Haifa
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
5.6
Hapoel Haifa
5.5
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.3
Maccabi Haifa
5.3
Maccabi Tel Aviv
5.2
Beitar Jerusalem
5.0
Bnei Sakhnin
4.8
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.8
Ashdod
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
27.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva
26.5
Maccabi Haifa
26.5
Maccabi Tel Aviv
25.5
Beitar Jerusalem
24.9
Hapoel Haifa
24.6
Maccabi Netanya
24.2
Bnei Sakhnin
23.6
Ashdod
23.5
Hapoel Tel Aviv
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.3%
Under 9.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
78.0%
Under 3.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.1%
Under 21.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.19
0.79
0.21
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.24
1.11
0.22
0.58
0.25
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Sakhnin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.46
0.42
0.25
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.75
0.75
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.89
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.25
1.00
0.17
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Sakhnin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.27
0.40
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bnei Sakhnin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusef Mustafa Sheh19%
Jubayer Bushnaq16%
Ahmad Salman15%
Eden Shamir11%
Artur Miranyan11%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe11%
Ahmed Taha10%
Iyad Abu Abaid8%
Basil Khuri8%
Alon Azugi5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Maron Ghantous0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Ibrahima Drame0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Omer Abuhav0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Iyad Abu Abaid46%
Muhamad Badarna33%
Maksim Grechkin29%
Hassan Hilu25%
Ahmad Salman25%
Ibrahima Drame21%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe21%
Maron Ghantous20%
Glid Otanga20%
Mohamad Ganame20%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh19%
Mohammed Abu Nil15%
Karlo Bručić11%
Eden Shamir11%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Alon Azugi10%
Basil Khuri8%
Omer Korsia7%
Artur Miranyan5%
Omer Abuhav5%
Durel Avounou0%
James Adeniyi0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Maicom David0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alon Azugi15%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Maron Ghantous10%
Ahmad Salman10%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh6%
Eden Shamir6%
Omer Abuhav5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
Artur Miranyan0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Iyad Abu Abaid0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Ibrahima Drame0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Basil Khuri0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artur Miranyan16%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Basil Khuri8%
Ibrahima Drame7%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Alon Azugi0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh0%
Eden Shamir0%
Iyad Abu Abaid0%
Maron Ghantous0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Omer Abuhav0%
Ahmad Salman0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
ASH (23)
€4m
MBR (18)
€3m
Hapoel Petah Tikva and Bnei Sakhnin have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
MBR (8)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
Hapoel Petah Tikva and Bnei Sakhnin have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
MBR (2)
€0m
Hapoel Petah Tikva and Bnei Sakhnin have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
ASH (9)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
Hapoel Petah Tikva and Bnei Sakhnin have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →