Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring clash, as both sides average more than a goal conceded per game. The model favours an away win, with a 37% chance, followed by a draw at 33% and a home win at 30%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% probability. Hapoel Ra'anana, playing at home, scores about 1.13 goals and concedes 1.47 against similar opposition, while Kafr Qasim, on the road, nets 1.15 and concedes only 1.0. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with an 84.7% probability. The model’s selection for the match result is an away win. The home win probability is 30%, the draw probability is 33%, and the away win probability is 37%.
Results analysis
The 2-2 draw shocked the pre-match favourite, Kafr Qasim, who had been tipped to win with a 37% chance. The model’s call was wrong, as the match finished a stalemate. Hapoel Ra’anana, riding a three-game winning streak, kept the scoreline balanced, while Kafr Qasim, fresh from a 4-0 victory, failed to secure the win. The model’s sole other suggestion, Under 3.5 goals, missed despite an 84.7% probability. The final result left both sides with a draw, contradicting the prediction that the away side would triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Ra'anana win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim win✗ Miss
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Ra'anana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.13
1.47
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.10
1.13
1.47
1.20
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.88
1.38
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.25
0.93
1.47
1.15
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ra'anana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.3%
Under 1.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.9%
Under 2.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.3%
Under 3.5
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.1%
0-1
12.5%
1-0
11.0%
0-2
7.6%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
Hapoel Ra'anana goals ↓
Kafr Qasim goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
7.6%
2.7%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
6.0%
6.5%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.9%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Ra'anana goals (down), columns = Kafr Qasim goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.81
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.73
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.00
Hapoel Hadera
0.86
Hapoel Ra'anana is 0.24 points better than Kafr Qasim in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
2.08
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.59
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.19
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Hadera
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Ra'anana and Kafr Qasim are level in goals scored per game (both 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.14
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.57
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Hadera
1.65
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Ra'anana is 0.14 goals better than Kafr Qasim in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Ra'anana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.25
0.88
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.68
0.27
0.93
0.54
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ra'anana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Ra'anana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ra'anana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ra'anana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Ra'anana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.73
1.07
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.67
0.73
1.07
0.73
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.57
0.67
0.53
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ra'anana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Ra'anana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ra'anana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ra'anana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MPT (34)
€7m
BY (40)
€4m
HRL (37)
€4m
HRG (33)
€4m
HA (47)
€3m
HKS (35)
€3m
HKS (37)
€3m
HR (46)
€3m
MH (38)
€3m
MKJ (41)
€2m
KYS (46)
€2m
HA (47)
€2m
KQ (37)
€2m
IM (33)
€1m
Hapoel Ra'anana and Kafr Qasim have a similar squad value (both €3m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →