Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with both sides averaging just one goal conceded per match against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, assigning a 42% chance to Hapoel Ramat Gan, 32% to a draw and 26% to Hapoel Katamon. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight, low-scoring affair, most likely ending 1-1 with a 14.5% probability. Hapoel Ramat Gan’s home form shows 1.71 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Hapoel Katamon’s away form lags at 0.77 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.6%), Under 4.5 (93.4%) and Home +2 handicap (90.6%). The model’s selection of a home win remains the single most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Hapoel Ramat Gan, did not deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that surprised the model’s 42% home-win pick. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was a stalemate. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals, with a 99.8% probability, hit, as did Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.6%), Under 4.5 (93.4%) and Home +2 handicap (90.6%). All these high-probability picks were correct, underscoring the match’s low-scoring nature despite the model’s optimistic home-win expectation.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Ramat Gan win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.10
1.60
1.00
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.67
1.04
1.71
1.00
1.62
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Katamon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.10
0.64
0.93
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.17
0.67
2.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.83
0.64
0.64
0.77
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
9.4%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.9%
Hapoel Ramat Gan goals ↓
Hapoel Katamon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.9%
8.1%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.6%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Ramat Gan goals (down), columns = Hapoel Katamon goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3.00
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.00
Maccabi Netanya
2.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.80
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.64 points worse than Hapoel Katamon in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67
Hapoel Katamon
1.60
Maccabi Netanya
1.60
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Bnei Sakhnin
1.20
Ironi Tiberias
1.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.49 goals worse than Hapoel Katamon in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beitar Jerusalem
0.33
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.40
Ironi Tiberias
1.40
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.60
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.00
Maccabi Haifa
2.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.57 goals worse than Hapoel Katamon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Ramat Gan or Draw✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Hapoel Ramat Gan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan or Hapoel Katamon✗ Miss
68.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Hapoel Ramat Gan + Hapoel Katamon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Katamon✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Draw + Hapoel Katamon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.7%
Under
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Ramat Gan, so a minus line means Hapoel Ramat Gan give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Katamon receive them. At -1, Hapoel Ramat Gan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Ramat Gan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Ramat Gan)Actual: Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan +1
74.0%
Draw +1
16.6%
Hapoel Katamon -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Ramat Gan)Actual: Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.9%
Hapoel Katamon -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.41
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Katamon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.36
0.50
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.25
0.33
0.27
0.27
0.23
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.04
0.63
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Katamon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.29
0.43
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.36
0.36
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Katamon have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Katamon have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Katamon have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Katamon have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Beitar Jerusalem