The clash between Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Petah Tikva is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw or an away victory are close behind. The expected goal tally sits at 2.6, and the most likely total is two goals, a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance. Hapoel Ramat Gan, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded, while Hapoel Petah Tikva, on the road, averages 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Under 4.5 (88.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.6%), and Home under 2.5 goals (85.7%). Home win probability is 36%, draw 29%, and away win 34%. The match is finely balanced, with the home side slightly ahead.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Hapoel Ramat Gan edged Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-1, a result that matched the favoured outcome. The favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 36% probability and the call was correct. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the actual result of a home victory. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.7%, Under 5.5 at 95.4%, Under 4.5 at 88.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 86.6% and Home under 2.5 goals at 85.7%. The match delivered a tightly contested game with a modest total of three goals, fitting the model’s expectation of a low-scoring affair.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Ramat Gan win✓ Hit
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.07
1.47
1.07
1.60
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.56
1.00
1.57
1.07
1.54
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.73
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.82
1.20
1.80
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.25
1.00
0.75
1.38
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.33
3.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
9.0%
1-0
8.8%
0-1
8.5%
2-1 ✓
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
6.1%
Hapoel Ramat Gan goals ↓
Hapoel Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
8.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.8%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.5%
8.2%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.8%
3.6%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Ramat Gan goals (down), columns = Hapoel Petah Tikva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3.00
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.00
Maccabi Netanya
2.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.80
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.04 points worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67
Hapoel Katamon
1.60
Maccabi Netanya
1.60
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Bnei Sakhnin
1.20
Ironi Tiberias
1.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.69 goals worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beitar Jerusalem
0.33
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.40
Ironi Tiberias
1.40
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.60
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.00
Maccabi Haifa
2.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.17 goals worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Ramat Gan or Draw✓ Hit
65.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
34%
covers Hapoel Ramat Gan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan or Hapoel Petah Tikva✓ Hit
70.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
34%
covers Hapoel Ramat Gan + Hapoel Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva✗ Miss
63.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
34%
covers Draw + Hapoel Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Ramat Gan, so a minus line means Hapoel Ramat Gan give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Petah Tikva receive them. At -1, Hapoel Ramat Gan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Ramat Gan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Ramat Gan)Actual: Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan +1
65.6%
Draw +1
18.9%
Hapoel Petah Tikva -1
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Ramat Gan)Actual: Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan +2
84.5%
Draw +2
10.2%
Hapoel Petah Tikva -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.41
0.64
0.50
0.54
0.31
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.50
0.12
0.12
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.96
0.59
0.93
0.57
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.80
0.73
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.75
0.88
0.62
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →