Pythia gives Hapoel Ramat Gan a 48% win probability against Hapoel Rishon LeZion in the Israel: Liga Leumit on 2026-05-20, with 27% for the draw and 25% for Hapoel Rishon LeZion. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (78%).
Results analysis
Hapoel Ramat Gan finished 2-1 against Hapoel Rishon LeZion (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 48% home win, 27% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (78%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Ramat Gan win✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
1.40
1.07
1.73
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.56
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.75
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
1.57
1.21
1.43
1.14
1.71
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.60
1.33
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
1.44
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.67
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.53
1.45
1.45
1.00
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
Hapoel Ramat Gan goals ↓
Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.7%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
1
8.9%
13%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.6%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.6%
5.3%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Ramat Gan goals (down), columns = Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.81
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.73
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.00
Hapoel Hadera
0.86
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.41 points better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
2.08
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.59
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.19
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Hadera
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.24 goals better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.14
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.57
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Hadera
1.65
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Ramat Gan is 0.35 goals better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.31
0.38
0.50
0.38
0.12
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.71
0.43
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.53
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.58
0.45
0.64
0.12
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Ramat Gan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Ramat Gan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MPT (34)
€7m
BY (40)
€4m
HRL (37)
€4m
HRG (33)
€4m
HA (47)
€3m
HKS (35)
€3m
HKS (37)
€3m
HR (46)
€3m
MH (38)
€3m
MKJ (41)
€2m
KYS (46)
€2m
HA (47)
€2m
KQ (37)
€2m
IM (33)
€1m
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HRG (0)
€0m
MPT (0)
€0m
BY (0)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
HKS (0)
€0m
HKS (0)
€0m
HR (0)
€0m
HRL (0)
€0m
IM (0)
€0m
KQ (0)
€0m
KYS (0)
€0m
MH (0)
€0m
MKJ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HRG (0)
€0m
MPT (0)
€0m
BY (0)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
HKS (0)
€0m
HKS (0)
€0m
HR (0)
€0m
HRL (0)
€0m
IM (0)
€0m
KQ (0)
€0m
KYS (0)
€0m
MH (0)
€0m
MKJ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HRG (0)
€0m
MPT (0)
€0m
BY (0)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
HKS (0)
€0m
HKS (0)
€0m
HR (0)
€0m
HRL (0)
€0m
IM (0)
€0m
KQ (0)
€0m
KYS (0)
€0m
MH (0)
€0m
MKJ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 12. Games History
H2H record
8 previous meetings
3
HRG wins
1
Draws
4
HRL wins
Head-to-head
Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion · H/A from HRG
Israel: Liga Leumit 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →