Hapoel Kfar Saba is the favourite to win this match, with a recent-form note that they are coming off a draw, having drawn their last match against Hapoel Ramat Gan. The model predicts an away win, with a 45% chance of an Hapoel Kfar Saba victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of a Hapoel Rishon LeZion win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1, which has a 12.4% probability. Hapoel Kfar Saba is expected to score 1.73 goals on average when playing away against a similar strength opponent, while conceding 1.2 goals. Hapoel Rishon LeZion, on the other hand, scores and concedes 1.45 goals on average at home against a similar strength opponent. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has an 80.2% probability. The probabilities for the match result are: Hapoel Kfar Saba win 45%, draw 26%, Hapoel Rishon LeZion win 29%. The model's suggested picks are: Hapoel Kfar Saba win 45%, draw 26%, Hapoel Rishon LeZion win 29%, Over 1.5 with an 80.2% probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Hapoel Rishon LeZion, riding a win after a five-match slump, overturned the pre-match favourite Hapoel Kfar Saba, who had been on two straight defeats. The final score was 2-0 for the home side, a result that contradicted the model’s pick of an away win, which had a 44 % probability. The model’s selection was therefore wrong. Among the suggested picks, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 91.8 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 85.6 %, Over 1.5 hit at 80.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 77.7 %, and Home +2 handicap hit at 76.8 %. The only misses were Away +2 handicap at 86.7 % and Away over 0.5 goals at 80.3 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win✓ Hit
29.6%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.14
Edge
-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.16
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.41
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.54
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.50
Hapoel Kfar Saba win✗ Miss
43.8%
Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.88
Edge
+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.95
10Bet
2.95
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.92
Superbet
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.63
1.53
1.67
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.40
1.63
1.53
1.67
1.27
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.43
1.43
1.71
1.62
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.53
1.43
1.43
1.71
1.62
1.19
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
@ 1.21+4.9%
Under 1.5
19.8%
@ 3.67-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.71+2.5%
Under 2.5
43.9%
@ 1.97-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Under
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
@ 2.71+0.2%
Under 3.5
66.3%
@ 1.37-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
Under
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.58+2.4%
No
40.3%
@ 2.13-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
No
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
William Hil
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.21+5.6%
1-2
9.2%@ 9.41+4.7%
0-1
7.5%@ 9.57+3.1%
2-1
7.4%@ 8.06+2.1%
0-2
7.1%@ 14.29+4.1%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.21+2.7%
2-2
6.0%@ 11.36+2.3%
1-0
5.8%@ 8.06+0.5%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals ↓
Hapoel Kfar Saba goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
7.5%
7.1%
3.8%
1.6%
1
5.8%
12%
9.2%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.5%
7.4%
6.0%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.6%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals (down), columns = Hapoel Kfar Saba goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Rishon LeZion is 0.03 points worse than Hapoel Kfar Saba in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Rishon LeZion is 0.05 goals worse than Hapoel Kfar Saba in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Rishon LeZion is 0.11 goals worse than Hapoel Kfar Saba in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Draw✓ Hit
56.2%
Avg Implied 68.4% · @ 1.33
Edge
-12.2%
30%
27%
44%
covers Hapoel Rishon LeZion + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Hapoel Kfar Saba✓ Hit
73.5%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.7%
30%
27%
44%
covers Hapoel Rishon LeZion + Hapoel Kfar Saba
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba✗ Miss
70.4%
Avg Implied 57.5% · @ 1.58
Edge
+12.9%
30%
27%
44%
covers Draw + Hapoel Kfar Saba
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.9%
@ 1.19-3.7%
Under
27.1%
@ 3.90+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.95
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.80
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.5%
@ 1.99-8.9%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.72+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 4.12-7.8%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.18+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
3.85
Under
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 9.20-5.7%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Bet365
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.3%
@ 1.30+9.7%
Under
19.7%
@ 3.12-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.14
Superbet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.3%
@ 2.41+10.2%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.49-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.3%
@ 5.44+5.5%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.10-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.80
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 10.50-0.6%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.02+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.50
Under
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Rishon LeZion, so a minus line means Hapoel Rishon LeZion give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Kfar Saba receive them. At -1, Hapoel Rishon LeZion must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Rishon LeZion win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.71
0.86
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.60
0.71
0.86
0.81
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.03
1.00
1.07
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.03
1.00
1.07
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.71
0.86
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.83
0.71
0.86
0.81
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.7%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
-
+12.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.27
-
+9.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.5%
1.23
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.23
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.9%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.4%
1.58
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
+12.9%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
70.4%
1.57
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Unibet
1.50
+15.4%
✗ Miss
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion's squad is €1m more valuable than Hapoel Kfar Saba's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion's attack is €1m more valuable than Hapoel Kfar Saba's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Hapoel Kfar Saba have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Hapoel Kfar Saba have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →