Hapoel Rishon LeZion’s recent three-game winning streak suggests a solid home performance, yet Kiryat Yam SC’s away form, with a 1.35 average conceded, points to a tighter defensive display. The model projects an average of 3.2 goals, with the most probable total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% chance. The favored outcome is an away win, with probabilities of 33% for a home win, 26% for a draw, and 41% for an away win. Hapoel Rishon LeZion averages 1.53 goals scored and 1.6 conceded at home against similar opponents, while Kiryat Yam SC scores 1.47 and concedes 1.35 away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%), Under 6.5 (95.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), and Away under 3.5 goals (90.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC win
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.60
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.60
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kiryat Yam SC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.08
1.31
1.47
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.30
1.33
1.08
1.31
1.47
1.35
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
5.9%
0-0
5.2%
1-0
5.2%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals ↓
Kiryat Yam SC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
6.0%
5.9%
3.3%
1.4%
1
5.2%
12%
8.8%
5.0%
2.1%
2
4.6%
7.8%
6.6%
3.7%
1.6%
3
2.3%
3.9%
3.3%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals (down), columns = Kiryat Yam SC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Rishon LeZion is 0.14 points worse than Kiryat Yam SC in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Hapoel Rishon LeZion is 0.05 goals better than Kiryat Yam SC in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Rishon LeZion is 0.30 goals worse than Kiryat Yam SC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Draw
58.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers Hapoel Rishon LeZion + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Kiryat Yam SC
74.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers Hapoel Rishon LeZion + Kiryat Yam SC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kiryat Yam SC
67.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers Draw + Kiryat Yam SC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5
Over
77.4%
Under
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5
Over
81.4%
Under
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Rishon LeZion, so a minus line means Hapoel Rishon LeZion give that many goals of a start and Kiryat Yam SC receive them. At -1, Hapoel Rishon LeZion must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Rishon LeZion win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hapoel Rishon LeZion)
Hapoel Rishon LeZion -2
6.0%
Draw -2
10.0%
Kiryat Yam SC +2
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hapoel Rishon LeZion)
Hapoel Rishon LeZion -1
16.0%
Draw -1
17.0%
Kiryat Yam SC +1
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Rishon LeZion)
Hapoel Rishon LeZion +1
58.6%
Draw +1
19.4%
Kiryat Yam SC -1
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Rishon LeZion)
Hapoel Rishon LeZion +2
78.0%
Draw +2
12.8%
Kiryat Yam SC -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kiryat Yam SC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.08
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.70
0.08
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.3%
Under 1.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kiryat Yam SC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.54
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.54
0.76
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.7%
Under 0.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.1%
Under 1.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.8%
Under 2.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →