Hapoel Tel Aviv’s recent draw against Hapoel Haifa and a 0-0 stalemate suggest a cautious start, while Beitar Jerusalem’s 1-4 loss to Maccabi Netanya hints at defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, assigning 43% to Hapoel, 27% to a draw and 30% to Beitar. With an expected 2.8 goals, the most likely total is 2, though the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Hapoel’s home form shows 1.78 goals scored and 0.56 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Beitar’s away form yields 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.5% with a 7% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1% with an 8% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9% with a 4% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7% with a 3% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.1% with an 8% edge and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0% with a 3% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Hapoel Tel Aviv’s recent run, cementing a home victory of 3-0 over Beitar Jerusalem. The model’s favourite, a home win at 43 percent, proved correct, matching the actual result. The predicted 2-goal total fell short, but the model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.2 percent, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9 percent, Under 6.5 at 97.5 percent, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2 percent, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.9 percent, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.1 percent, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3 percent. Each hit confirmed the model’s high-confidence predictions.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Tel Aviv win✓ Hit
43.1%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.39
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.42
Dafabet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.37
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Beitar Jerusalem win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 34.6% · @ 2.64
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.88
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.76
Betano
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.93
1.62
0.62
1.00
1.18
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.00
1.78
0.56
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Beitar Jerusalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beitar Jerusalem
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.33
1.75
1.38
2.07
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.95
1.48
1.82
1.64
2.10
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.00
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
@ 1.22+2.1%
Under 1.5
21.6%
@ 3.90-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.30
Betfair
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.71-1.1%
Under 2.5
46.5%
@ 2.06+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.73
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
SBO
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
@ 2.73-2.7%
Under 3.5
68.8%
@ 1.40+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.8%
@ 1.58-0.7%
No
42.2%
@ 2.22+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Betano
1.57
No
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Betano
2.27
William Hil
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.31+5.8%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.60+4.0%
1-0
8.1%@ 9.09+3.2%
1-2
7.4%@ 9.01+2.4%
2-0
7.2%@ 12.17+3.6%
0-0
7.1%@ 11.42+3.2%
0-1
6.4%@ 9.66+1.7%
2-2
5.8%@ 11.28+1.8%
Hapoel Tel Aviv goals ↓
Beitar Jerusalem goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
6.4%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.1%
13%
7.4%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.1%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.8%
4.7%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Tel Aviv goals (down), columns = Beitar Jerusalem goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.25
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Hapoel Tel Aviv is 0.34 points worse than Beitar Jerusalem in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv is 0.60 goals worse than Beitar Jerusalem in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.62
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Hapoel Tel Aviv is 0.11 goals better than Beitar Jerusalem in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Hapoel Tel Aviv is 9.9 percentage points worse than Beitar Jerusalem in terms of average possession (47% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hapoel Tel Aviv
For 4.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Beitar Jerusalem
For 4.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 16.8 · Total 32.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
9.2
7.7
3.3
3.3
3.3
29.4
27.8
30.8
vs Stronger (7)
8.8
14.5
5.0
3.1
2.3
3.8
28.4
27.5
29.0
vs Similar (36)
8.3
8.7
8.0
3.4
3.6
3.1
29.7
27.9
31.3
vs Weaker (7)
8.2
6.5
10.0
3.1
2.8
3.7
29.2
27.5
31.0
% over line
37%
43%
31%
42%
39%
44%
90%
86%
94%
% under line
63%
57%
69%
58%
61%
56%
10%
14%
6%
This opponent (Beitar Jerusalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beitar Jerusalem
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.9
8.1
3.6
3.2
3.9
29.7
30.0
29.5
vs Stronger (7)
8.0
9.5
7.0
2.9
3.7
2.2
29.8
31.0
29.0
vs Similar (34)
8.0
7.8
8.2
4.1
3.5
4.7
30.2
30.4
30.0
vs Weaker (9)
11.5
14.0
9.0
2.3
1.8
2.8
27.2
27.0
27.5
% over line
37%
40%
33%
50%
48%
52%
90%
87%
93%
% under line
63%
60%
67%
50%
52%
48%
10%
13%
7%
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bnei Sakhnin
9.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
8.9
Hapoel Haifa
8.8
Maccabi Petah Tikva
8.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
8.7
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.7
Maccabi Netanya
8.6
Beitar Jerusalem
8.4
Maccabi Haifa
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
6.1
Beitar Jerusalem
5.5
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
Hapoel Haifa
5.3
Maccabi Haifa
5.2
Maccabi Tel Aviv
5.1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.7
Bnei Sakhnin
4.7
Maccabi Petah Tikva
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
29.5
Beitar Jerusalem
28.8
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Maccabi Haifa
27.3
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
26.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
26.3
Hapoel Haifa
26.1
Maccabi Netanya
25.4
Maccabi Petah Tikva
24.8
Bnei Sakhnin
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
34.5%
@ 1.96-13.0%
Under 9.5
65.5%
@ 1.77+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.4%
Under 3.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.7%
Under 21.5
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hapoel Tel Aviv or Draw✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 65.3% · @ 1.42
Edge
+5.0%
43%
27%
30%
covers Hapoel Tel Aviv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
Hapoel Tel Aviv or Beitar Jerusalem✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.2%
43%
27%
30%
covers Hapoel Tel Aviv + Beitar Jerusalem
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem✗ Miss
56.9%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.50
Edge
-4.8%
43%
27%
30%
covers Draw + Beitar Jerusalem
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.9%
@ 1.23+3.5%
Under
21.1%
@ 3.78-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.24
BetVictor
4.00
1xBet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.1%
@ 2.13+2.4%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.66-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.6%
@ 4.54+0.1%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.17-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 10.50-1.7%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.7%
@ 1.25-2.7%
Under
28.3%
@ 3.62+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
Superbet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.25-5.4%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.58+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Unibet
2.28
BetVictor
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.96-5.3%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.14+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 11.12-4.6%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.04+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hapoel Tel Aviv, so a minus line means Hapoel Tel Aviv give that many goals of a start and Beitar Jerusalem receive them. At -1, Hapoel Tel Aviv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hapoel Tel Aviv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hapoel Tel Aviv)Actual: Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv -2
9.0%
@ 9.75-0.3%
Draw -2
13.3%
@ 6.78+0.0%
Beitar Jerusalem +2
77.7%
@ 1.17+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Away
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap -1 (Hapoel Tel Aviv)Actual: Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv -1
22.3%
@ 4.39+2.4%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 4.03-0.9%
Beitar Jerusalem +1
56.9%
@ 1.49-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
3.95
Draw
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.40
Away
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Handicap +1 (Hapoel Tel Aviv)Actual: Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv +1
70.3%
@ 1.43+9.0%
Draw +1
16.6%
@ 4.24-4.1%
Beitar Jerusalem -1
13.1%
@ 4.91-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
3.60
Away
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Handicap +2 (Hapoel Tel Aviv)Actual: Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv +2
86.9%
@ 1.12+9.3%
Draw +2
8.7%
@ 6.45-4.8%
Beitar Jerusalem -2
4.4%
@ 9.80-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
6.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.62
0.23
0.29
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.38
0.67
0.11
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Beitar Jerusalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beitar Jerusalem
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.81
0.56
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.52
0.73
0.45
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.32+0.8%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 3.14-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 2.47-3.6%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.49+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.3%
@ 5.79-3.7%
Under 2.5
87.7%
@ 1.10+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.85
1xBet
5.60
Under
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.1%
@ 1.92+1.8%
Under
49.9%
@ 1.79-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 5.72-1.0%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.10+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 14.62-3.3%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.7%
@ 1.98-4.2%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.74+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 6.08-5.3%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.09+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 14.88-4.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.38
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.62
1.11
0.44
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Beitar Jerusalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beitar Jerusalem
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
0.94
0.81
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.95
1.09
1.18
1.30
0.70
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.19+0.4%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 4.17-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.7%
@ 1.91+3.1%
Under 1.5
48.3%
@ 1.81-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.5%
@ 3.76-2.1%
Under 2.5
77.5%
@ 1.23+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
William Hil
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Under
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.5%
@ 1.67-1.8%
Under
46.5%
@ 2.07+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.0%
@ 3.99-4.2%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.21+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
3.92
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.62-3.9%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.4%
@ 1.69-6.5%
Under
51.6%
@ 2.05+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.1%
@ 4.40-5.0%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.18+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Beitar Jerusalem over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 10.38-6.2%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.10
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.0%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.5%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
-
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.4%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
78.9%
1.23
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.4%
1.22
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.7%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
-
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.23
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.5%
1.43
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
-
-
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.8%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.7%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-2.7%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.32
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.3%
1.42
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.3%
1.43
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.35
+9.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roee Alkokin25%
D. Owusu25%
D. Dappa25%
Emmanuel Boateng0%
Chico0%
Falcão0%
F. Mayembo0%
M. Coco0%
Omri Altman0%
A. Tzur0%
Andrian Kraev0%
Doron Leidner0%
S. Torial0%
Mor Buskila0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Torial67%
Chico50%
Falcão50%
M. Coco50%
Omri Altman33%
F. Mayembo25%
Andrian Kraev25%
Doron Leidner25%
Emmanuel Boateng0%
A. Tzur0%
Roee Alkokin0%
Mor Buskila0%
D. Owusu0%
D. Dappa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
S. Torial33%
Emmanuel Boateng25%
Chico0%
Falcão0%
F. Mayembo0%
M. Coco0%
Omri Altman0%
A. Tzur0%
Andrian Kraev0%
Doron Leidner0%
Roee Alkokin0%
Mor Buskila0%
D. Owusu0%
D. Dappa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Roee Alkokin25%
D. Owusu25%
Emmanuel Boateng0%
Chico0%
Falcão0%
F. Mayembo0%
M. Coco0%
Omri Altman0%
A. Tzur0%
Andrian Kraev0%
Doron Leidner0%
S. Torial0%
Mor Buskila0%
D. Dappa0%
Beitar Jerusalem
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu33%
Daniel Worko33%
Omer Atzili25%
Noam Muche25%
Brayan Carabalí0%
Luka Gadrani0%
Miguel Silva0%
Nana Antwi0%
Boris Enow0%
S. Weissman0%
Eugene Ansah0%
Y. Shua0%
T. Yosefi0%
T. Muzi0%
Roey Elimelech0%
Z. Shimol0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayan Carabalí50%
Boris Enow50%
Omer Atzili50%
T. Yosefi50%
Nana Antwi33%
T. Muzi33%
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu33%
Z. Shimol33%
Daniel Worko33%
Luka Gadrani25%
Eugene Ansah25%
Miguel Silva0%
S. Weissman0%
Y. Shua0%
Noam Muche0%
Roey Elimelech0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nana Antwi33%
Omer Atzili25%
Brayan Carabalí0%
Luka Gadrani0%
Miguel Silva0%
Boris Enow0%
S. Weissman0%
Eugene Ansah0%
Y. Shua0%
T. Yosefi0%
T. Muzi0%
Noam Muche0%
Roey Elimelech0%
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu0%
Z. Shimol0%
Daniel Worko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Omer Atzili25%
Y. Shua25%
Noam Muche25%
Brayan Carabalí0%
Luka Gadrani0%
Miguel Silva0%
Nana Antwi0%
Boris Enow0%
S. Weissman0%
Eugene Ansah0%
T. Yosefi0%
T. Muzi0%
Roey Elimelech0%
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu0%
Z. Shimol0%
Daniel Worko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Beitar Jerusalem have a similar squad value (both €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Hapoel Tel Aviv's attack is €2m more valuable than Beitar Jerusalem's (€11m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Beitar Jerusalem have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Beitar Jerusalem have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Katamon