Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa Result & Analysis

The model favours a Hapoel Tel Aviv victory, with a 45% chance of a home win, 28% for a draw and 27% for a Hapoel Haifa win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely total is two goals, a 26% chance. The most probable exact score is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Hapoel Tel Aviv, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Hapoel Haifa, on the road, averages only 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 87.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 73.9% and Over 8.5 corners at 71.7%. Each selection is presented with its own probability, and no additional commentary is attached.

The 3-3 draw shocked the pre-match favourite, Hapoel Tel Aviv, who had been on a mixed run and were tipped to win with a 45% chance. The model’s call was wrong. The match produced a full-time draw, the same result the model predicted as the most likely outcome. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards at 87.8% missed, Over 1.5 at 74.2% hit, Under 3.5 at 73.9% missed, Over 3.5 cards at 73.9% missed and Over 8.5 corners at 71.7% missed. Both sides had come off draws, with Hapoel Tel Aviv’s recent form noted as “coming off a draw” and Hapoel Haifa’s as “coming off a draw.” The final score of 3-3 confirmed the unexpected parity.