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HB Koge vs Hillerød Result & Analysis

Date: 07/11/2025
Time: 17:30
Final 1-1
HB Koge
HB Koge
Vs
27%
28%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

HB Koge win✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L13L23L10W04L02L12L21W13L32WH·B 919/08A·HIL23/08A·ESB01/09H·AC 13/09A·LYN21/09H·HVI27/09A·AAL02/10H·KOL17/10A·HVI23/10A·AC 31/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.771.071.291.382.19
vs Stronger (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Similar (27)1.261.931.151.381.362.43
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D32W30W13L12L21W21W11D21W11DA·KOL29/08A·BSI02/09H·ESB14/09A·HVI20/09H·AAR24/09H·AC 27/09A·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.132.271.131.601.13
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (24)1.881.212.331.081.421.33
vs Weaker (5)2.400.602.501.002.330.33
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.3%
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.1%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.3%
HB Koge goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
01234
08.1%9.4%8.1%4.1%1.6%
16.7%13%9.2%4.7%1.8%
24.5%6.9%5.3%2.7%1.0%
31.7%2.6%2.0%1.0%0.4%
40.5%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HB Koge goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
HB Koge is 0.31 points worse than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
HB Koge and Hillerød are level in goals scored per game (both 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
HB Koge is 0.16 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L02L00D02L00D00D10W10W12LH·B 919/08A·HIL23/08A·ESB01/09H·AC 13/09A·LYN21/09H·HVI27/09A·AAL02/10H·KOL17/10A·HVI23/10A·AC 31/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.900.430.360.251.38
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.330.960.460.380.211.50
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W02L01L10W11D11D21W10WA·KOL29/08A·BSI02/09H·ESB14/09A·HVI20/09H·AAR24/09H·AC 27/09A·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.701.130.730.670.67
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (24)1.000.711.330.670.670.75
vs Weaker (5)0.600.600.501.000.670.33
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W21W10W02L02L12L11D03L20WH·B 919/08A·HIL23/08A·ESB01/09H·AC 13/09A·LYN21/09H·HVI27/09A·AAL02/10H·KOL17/10A·HVI23/10A·AC 31/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.870.640.931.120.81
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.930.960.691.001.140.93
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W10W11D11D11D10W00D00D01LA·KOL29/08A·BSI02/09H·ESB14/09A·HVI20/09H·AAR24/09H·AC 27/09A·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.431.130.400.930.47
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (24)0.880.501.000.420.750.58
vs Weaker (5)1.800.002.000.001.670.00
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
HB Koge and Hillerød have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
HB Koge and Hillerød have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
HB Koge and Hillerød have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
HB Koge and Hillerød have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
HK wins
2
Draws
6
HIL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

HB Koge vs Hillerød · H/A from HK
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AHillerød Vs HK3-1
25/04/25AHillerød Vs HK3-0
13/04/25HHK Vs Hillerød0-2
02/12/24HHK Vs Hillerød1-5
16/08/24AHillerød Vs HK4-2
05/05/24HHK Vs Hillerød1-1
19/04/24AHillerød Vs HK1-1
08/03/24HHK Vs Hillerød0-4

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/10/25AAC Horsens Vs HK2-3
23/10/25AHvidovre Vs HK3-1
17/10/25HHK Vs Kolding IF2-1
02/10/25AAalborg Vs HK2-1
27/09/25HHK Vs Hvidovre0-2
21/09/25ALyngby Vs HK4-0
13/09/25HHK Vs AC Horsens1-0
01/09/25AEsbjerg Vs HK3-2
23/08/25AHillerød Vs HK3-1
19/08/25HHK Vs B 930-1

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25HHIL Vs Kolding IF1-1
25/10/25AHobro Vs HIL1-2
18/10/25HHIL Vs Hvidovre1-1
04/10/25AMiddelfart Vs HIL1-2
27/09/25HHIL Vs AC Horsens2-1
24/09/25HHIL Vs Aarhus1-2
20/09/25AHvidovre Vs HIL3-1
14/09/25HHIL Vs Esbjerg3-0
02/09/25ABSI Vs HIL2-3
29/08/25AKolding IF Vs HIL0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.14
HomeLLWLW1.17
AwayLLLLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals3.102.793.38
Over 1.5 %86%79%92%
Over 2.5 %56%42%69%
Over 3.5 %36%25%46%
Scored1.281.001.54
Conceded1.821.791.85
BTTS54%33%73%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.76
HomeWLWDD1.75
AwayDWLWW1.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals3.003.332.69
Over 1.5 %84%96%73%
Over 2.5 %62%67%58%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.781.921.65
Conceded1.221.421.04
BTTS60%67%54%
Clean Sheet30%21%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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