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HB Koge vs Hobro Prediction & Stats

Date: 21/09/2026
Time: 17:00
HB Koge
HB Koge
Vs
27%
28%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Hobro are tipped to win this encounter, a result the model deems most likely. The overall shape of the match suggests a tight contest, with an expected total of 2.6 goals and the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at a 13.4 % probability. Home side HB Koge, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Hobro, on the road, averages 1.36 scored and 1.09 conceded. The model assigns a 25 % chance to a HB Koge victory, 28 % for a draw, and 47 % for an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 %), Under 5.5 (95.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (91.3 %), Away +2 handicap (90.5 %), and Under 4.5 (88.3 %). These probabilities reflect the model’s confidence in each outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

HB Koge win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hobro win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L01L03L02L01L13L02L22D00DA·MID16/05H·HOB24/05A·AAL30/05A·FC 25/07H·VEJ31/07A·BRØ04/08A·AAR08/08H·HVI15/08H·KOL23/08A·AAL29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.531.211.431.061.62
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (29)1.171.481.211.431.131.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W32W12L21W04L10W21W21W13LH·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08A·ESB15/08H·AAL21/08A·HIL30/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.431.191.751.641.07
vs Stronger (1)1.004.001.004.00--
vs Similar (23)1.221.391.171.501.271.27
vs Weaker (6)2.171.171.332.003.000.33
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
9.7%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.5%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
5.1%
HB Koge goals ↓
Hobro goals →
01234
08.5%9.7%8.2%4.1%1.5%
16.9%13%9.2%4.6%1.7%
24.5%6.8%5.1%2.6%1.0%
31.7%2.5%1.9%1.0%0.4%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HB Koge goals (down), columns = Hobro goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
HB Koge is 1.67 points worse than Hobro in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
HB Koge is 1.00 goals worse than Hobro in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
HB Koge is 0.67 goals worse than Hobro in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HB Koge or Draw
55.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers HB Koge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HB Koge or Hobro
71.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers HB Koge + Hobro
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hobro
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers Draw + Hobro
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HB Koge over/under 0.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to HB Koge, so a minus line means HB Koge give that many goals of a start and Hobro receive them. At -1, HB Koge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HB Koge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (HB Koge)
HB Koge -2
3.4%
Draw -2
7.7%
Hobro +2
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (HB Koge)
HB Koge -1
11.0%
Draw -1
15.9%
Hobro +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (HB Koge)
HB Koge +1
55.1%
Draw +1
21.9%
Hobro -1
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (HB Koge)
HB Koge +2
77.0%
Draw +2
13.9%
Hobro -2
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L01L00D01L01L02L00D21W00DA·MID16/05H·HOB24/05A·AAL30/05A·FC 25/07H·VEJ31/07A·BRØ04/08A·AAR08/08H·HVI15/08H·KOL23/08A·AAL29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.570.500.560.69
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (29)0.590.620.570.500.600.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W30W12L21W03L00D00D10W02LH·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08A·ESB15/08H·AAL21/08A·HIL30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.620.880.710.57
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (23)0.480.740.580.830.360.64
vs Weaker (6)1.500.671.001.002.000.33
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D03L01L00D11D02L01L00DA·MID16/05H·HOB24/05A·AAL30/05A·FC 25/07H·VEJ31/07A·BRØ04/08A·AAR08/08H·HVI15/08H·KOL23/08A·AAL29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.930.640.930.500.94
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (29)0.590.860.640.930.530.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D02L00D00D01L10W21W11D11DH·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08A·ESB15/08H·AAL21/08A·HIL30/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.560.880.930.50
vs Stronger (1)1.003.001.003.00--
vs Similar (23)0.740.650.580.670.910.64
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.331.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.3%-------
Under 5.595.0%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.7%-------
Away +2 handicap89.0%-------
Under 4.587.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals77.8%-------
Home +2 handicap77.0%-------
Over 1.574.9%-------
Under 3.573.2%-------
Draw or Away73.0%-------
Away +1 handicap73.0%-------
Home or Away71.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
HB Koge's squad is €2m less valuable than Hobro's (€5m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
HB Koge and Hobro have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
HB Koge and Hobro have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
HB Koge and Hobro have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
HK wins
1
Draws
4
HOB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

HB Koge vs Hobro · H/A from HK
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/26HHK Vs Hobro0-1
22/04/26AHobro Vs HK1-2
27/02/26AHobro Vs HK1-1
18/07/25HHK Vs Hobro2-0
22/05/25AHobro Vs HK2-1
21/04/25HHK Vs Hobro0-2
18/10/24HHK Vs Hobro4-1
02/08/24AHobro Vs HK2-1

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AAalborg Vs HK0-0
23/08/26HHK Vs Kolding IF2-2
15/08/26HHK Vs Hvidovre0-2
08/08/26AAarhus Fremad Vs HK3-1
04/08/26ABrønshøj Vs HK1-0
31/07/26HHK Vs Vejle0-2
25/07/26AFC Fredericia Vs HK3-0
30/05/26AAalborg Vs HK1-0
24/05/26HHK Vs Hobro0-1
16/05/26AMiddelfart Vs HK0-4

HobroHobro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AHillerød Vs HOB3-1
21/08/26HHOB Vs Aalborg2-1
15/08/26AEsbjerg Vs HOB1-2
08/08/26HHOB Vs AB Copenhagen1-0
05/08/26HHOB Vs Vendsyssel FF0-4
02/08/26AVendsyssel FF Vs HOB1-2
26/07/26HHOB Vs Aarhus Fremad1-2
30/05/26HHOB Vs Middelfart3-2
24/05/26AHB Koge Vs HOB0-1
14/05/26HHOB Vs Aarhus Fremad0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD1.10
HomeWLLLD1.33
AwayLLLLD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%19%
AVG goals2.782.503.04
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %52%33%69%
Over 3.5 %32%17%46%
Scored1.181.171.19
Conceded1.601.331.85
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.48
HomeWLLWW1.21
AwayDWWWL1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%50%
AVG goals2.782.792.77
Over 1.5 %78%71%85%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.341.171.50
Conceded1.441.621.27
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle614
67%
2.3
1610+6
4.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3242.71.7
-
2HvidovreHvidovre614
67%
2.3
105+5
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.8
-
3HobroHobro612
67%
2.0
98+1
2.8
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.51.3
-
4FC FredericiaFC Fredericia69
33%
1.5
94+5
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.50.7
-
5Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.20.8
-
6Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
7AalborgAalborg68
33%
1.3
57-2
2.0
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2260.81.2
-
8AB CopenhagenAB Copenhagen66
17%
1.0
87+1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.2
-
9Kolding IFKolding IF66
17%
1.0
89-1
2.8
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.5
-
10HillerødHillerød64
17%
0.7
1012-2
3.7
67%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.72.0
-
11EsbjergEsbjerg64
17%
0.7
813-5
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.32.2
-
12HB KogeHB Koge62
0%
0.3
312-9
2.5
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.52.0
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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