Heart Of Midlothian face Celtic on neutral ground, but the model sees Celtic as the clear favourite, rating a 63% chance of victory. The team’s away form against weaker opponents shows a strong 2.08 goals per game while conceding only 0.85, a stark contrast to Hearts’ 0.14 home win probability. The expected total of 2.9 goals translates to an average of about 3 goals, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, with a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2, a 11.2% probability, underscoring the likelihood of a Celtic win by a two-goal margin. Hearts’ home form (unbeaten in their last five) and Celtic’s away strength suggest a decisive win for the visitors. The model’s picks include Under 5.5 cards (91%), Under 4.5 cards (80.5%), Over 19.5 fouls (87.1%), Over 21.5 fouls (75.9%), and Over 1.5 goals (79.8%). The probabilities for the match outcome are 14% for a home win, 22% for a draw, and 63% for an away win.
Results analysis
Heart of Midlothian’s unbeaten run in their last five games was halted by a 2-1 home victory over Celtic, the match that saw the pre-match favourite, an away win at 63%, fail to materialise. The model’s prediction of an away triumph was therefore wrong. The game’s final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win, and the match’s total goal count of three fell short of the expected 2.9. Among the model’s selections, “Under 5.5 cards” at 91% hit, “Under 4.5 cards” at 80.5% hit, and “Over 1.5” at 79.8% hit, while “Over 19.5 fouls” at 87.1% and “Over 21.5 fouls” at 75.9% missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
14.4%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.66
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.84
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celtic win✗ Miss
63.3%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.71
Edge
+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.90
3.00
1.13
1.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.80
1.00
1.50
2.00
3.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
2.12
0.88
3.23
1.00
0.92
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.80
1.80
0.53
1.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (26)
2.04
0.62
2.00
0.38
2.08
0.85
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.83+3.9%
Under 2.5
44.2%
@ 1.97-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.2%
1-1
10.7%
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.6%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
4.3%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
10%
11%
7.6%
3.9%
1
3.8%
11%
9.9%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.1%
4.3%
4.3%
2.9%
1.5%
3
0.6%
1.2%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.84 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 2.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Heart Of Midlothian is 1.00 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 2.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.58 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 0.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.2 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 7.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.5
3.7
3.5
3.8
25.9
25.2
26.7
vs Stronger (5)
10.6
10.0
11.5
5.2
5.7
4.5
25.8
25.0
27.0
vs Similar (8)
11.1
13.0
9.2
4.6
5.0
4.2
25.8
27.0
24.5
vs Weaker (37)
10.5
10.5
10.6
3.3
2.9
3.7
26.0
24.9
27.2
% over line
60%
62%
58%
56%
54%
58%
80%
81%
79%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
44%
46%
42%
20%
19%
21%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.9
10.7
2.8
2.5
3.0
22.1
21.7
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
12.2
13.0
11.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
29.6
30.0
29.0
vs Weaker (45)
10.6
10.6
10.6
2.5
2.1
2.9
21.2
20.5
21.9
% over line
66%
67%
65%
28%
25%
31%
56%
50%
62%
% under line
34%
33%
35%
72%
75%
69%
44%
50%
38%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
11.1
Celtic
10.8
Ross County
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
ST Mirren
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.5
Motherwell
10.4
Dundee
10.3
Hibernian
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.4
Aberdeen
9.3
Livingston
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.7
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.5
Ross County
3.5
Rangers
3.3
ST Johnstone
3.3
Dundee
3.2
Livingston
3.2
Hibernian
3.1
ST Mirren
3.1
Celtic
2.8
Aberdeen
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
25.9
Aberdeen
25.8
Hibernian
25.1
Ross County
24.9
ST Johnstone
24.8
Motherwell
24.6
Livingston
24.5
Dundee
24.1
ST Mirren
23.6
Rangers
23.5
Dundee Utd
23.3
Celtic
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.4%
Under 9.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.9%
Under 21.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
1.33
0.33
0.47
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.28
1.54
0.23
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.87
0.27
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.69
0.19
0.92
0.15
0.46
0.23
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.60
1.67
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.20
0.60
1.50
1.00
2.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.16
0.60
1.69
0.77
0.58
0.42
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
0.93
0.27
1.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.35
0.42
1.08
0.23
1.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Nygren60%
Camilo Durán40%
Callum McGregor25%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
Colby Donovan20%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Benjamin Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Camilo Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Tierney40%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Yang Hyun-Jun20%
Camilo Durán20%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán60%
Kasper Høgh50%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €94m less valuable than Celtic's (€22m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €44m less valuable than Celtic's (€12m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €16m less valuable than Celtic's (€4m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €35m less valuable than Celtic's (€6m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee