Heart Of Midlothian are clear favourites, the model assigning a 62% chance to a home win and ranking that outcome as the most likely result. Their recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 2-1 victory over ST Johnstone, underpins the confidence, while Dundee’s away form shows a 6.0 average conceded, a stark contrast to Hearts’ 1.4. The expected total of 4.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the model’s most probable total being 6 + at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, carrying an 8.1% probability. Hearts’ home form shows 3.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Dundee’s away form shows 2.0 scored and 6.0 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 93.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 89.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 85.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 79.5%, BTTS Yes at 73.7%, and Under 4.5 cards at 72.6%. The Over 8.5 corners pick, at 75.4%, is noted as a miss. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 62%, 18%, and 19% respectively.
Results analysis
Heart Of Midlothian’s unbeaten run in their last five games carried them to a 2-1 victory over Dundee, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win with a 62% probability. The model’s favourite was correct, and the final score matched the expected outcome. The suggested picks performed well: Over 1.5 goals hit at 93.1%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 89.4%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 85.8%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 79.5%, BTTS Yes hit at 73.7%, and Under 4.5 cards hit at 72.6%. Only Over 8.5 corners missed, coming in at 75.4%. Overall, the model’s selections largely came through, reinforcing its accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
62.5%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.61
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.81
Edge
-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied 18.6% · @ 4.96
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.40
2.47
1.47
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.33
1.00
1.75
3.50
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
2.09
1.27
3.10
1.40
1.25
1.17
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.43
1.79
1.21
1.19
1.62
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
3.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
6.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.33
1.90
1.30
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.14
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.1%
Under 1.5
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.67+23.5%
Under 2.5
20.3%
@ 2.14-23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.7%
No
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
3-2
5.6%
2-0
5.3%
4-1
5.0%
3-0
4.8%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.0%
1.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
1
3.3%
6.5%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
2
5.3%
8.1%
6.2%
3.1%
1.2%
3
4.8%
7.4%
5.6%
2.8%
1.1%
4
3.3%
5.0%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.44 points better than Dundee in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.52 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.59 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 8.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 14.5 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 5.7 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 12.7 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.2
10.5
4.0
3.9
4.1
26.4
25.2
27.6
vs Stronger (7)
10.4
10.0
10.8
4.6
5.7
3.8
25.0
25.0
25.0
vs Similar (11)
10.3
11.4
9.3
5.0
5.2
4.8
29.3
28.6
29.8
vs Weaker (32)
11.1
11.4
10.9
3.5
3.1
3.9
25.8
24.2
27.4
% over line
64%
67%
62%
62%
62%
62%
76%
79%
73%
% under line
36%
33%
38%
38%
38%
38%
24%
21%
27%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.1
3.4
3.1
3.6
25.1
23.3
26.8
vs Stronger (3)
10.7
10.5
11.0
3.7
3.0
5.0
27.0
26.5
28.0
vs Similar (38)
9.9
9.5
10.3
3.1
2.9
3.2
25.0
22.6
26.9
vs Weaker (9)
10.6
12.2
8.5
4.3
3.8
5.0
25.1
24.2
26.2
% over line
60%
62%
58%
50%
42%
58%
76%
71%
81%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
50%
58%
42%
24%
29%
19%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.7
Inverness CT
11.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.8
Morton
10.8
Dunfermline
10.7
Queen of Sth
10.6
Raith Rvs
10.5
Ayr
10.3
Dundee
10.1
Arbroath
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Raith Rvs
3.7
Dundee
3.4
Arbroath
3.3
Ayr
3.2
Dunfermline
3.1
Inverness CT
3.1
Queen of Sth
3.0
Morton
3.0
Alloa
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.4
Dundee
25.1
Raith Rvs
22.3
Arbroath
22.3
Alloa
21.8
Ayr
21.5
Inverness CT
20.8
Morton
20.8
Dunfermline
20.5
Queen of Sth
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.2%
Under 9.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.5%
Under 21.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.87
0.60
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.86
0.45
1.30
0.50
0.50
0.42
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.90
1.60
0.87
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.67
1.00
0.75
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.23
0.82
1.80
0.90
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.79
0.71
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.33
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €17m more valuable than Dundee's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €11m more valuable than Dundee's (€12m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dundee's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €3m more valuable than Dundee's (€6m vs €2m).
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Arbroath
Morton