Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Result & Analysis

Heart Of Midlothian are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 65% chance to win, 23% for a draw and 12% for Dundee. The 65% home-win probability reflects the Saints’ strong home form: they average 3.09 goals scored and only 0.91 conceded against weaker opposition, while Dundee, playing away against a stronger side, manage only 0.5 goals and concede 4.0. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate-scoring game, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Hearts, with a 13.5% chance. Suggested picks include an over 19.5 fouls at 93.1%, an over 21.5 fouls at 85.6%, an under 5.5 cards at 85.2% (miss), an over 23.5 fouls at 74.4%, an over 1.5 goals at 74.3%, an under 3.5 goals at 73.5% and an under 4.5 cards at 71.8% (miss). The Saints’ recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 2-1 win over St Johnstone, underpins the confidence in their victory. Dundee, having lost their last match 1-2 to Hibernian, appear less capable of turning the tide.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Heart Of Midlothian, failed to deliver a win, with the match ending in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win at 65 percent, but that call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result of a draw. The model’s other selections fared differently: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 93.1 percent, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 85.6 percent, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 74.4 percent, Over 1.5 hit at 74.3 percent, Under 3.5 hit at 73.5 percent, while Under 5.5 cards missed at 85.2 percent and Under 4.5 cards missed at 71.8 percent. Heart Of Midlothian remained unbeaten in their last five, but the result proved the model’s prediction was incorrect.