Heart Of Midlothian are the clear favourites to win, with the model assigning a 65% chance to a home victory. The team’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 2-1 win over ST Johnstone, underpins that confidence, especially as they have scored an average of 2.71 goals and conceded only 0.29 at home against weaker opposition. Dundee, on the other hand, have struggled away, averaging just 0.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded against stronger opponents, and they come off a 1-2 loss to Hibernian. The model therefore picks a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the single most likely scoreline 1-0 for Hearts at 14% probability. Home win probability is 65%, draw 23%, away win 12%. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.8%, Under 3.5 goals at 75.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 72.5%, Over 8.5 corners at 72.4%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Dundee broke Heart of Midlothian’s unbeaten run, winning 2-1 and ending the Hibs-defeat streak that had seen them lose their last match. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 65% probability, but the model’s call was wrong, as the actual result was an Away win. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls at 90.5% missed, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.3% missed, Over 2.5 cards at 78.6% hit, Under 5.5 cards at 75.8% hit, Under 3.5 at 75.5% hit, Over 1.5 at 72.5% hit, and Over 8.5 corners at 72.4% hit. The match ended 1-2, confirming the surprising outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
65.0%
Avg Implied 61.6% · @ 1.53
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.15
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✓ Hit
11.5%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 6.03
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.83
2.13
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.70
2.00
0.60
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.43
2.71
0.29
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.47
1.14
1.43
0.75
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
2.20
1.20
1.80
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (19)
1.00
1.11
1.11
1.22
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.89-4.1%
Under 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.89+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.0%
2-0
13.9%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
3-0
8.6%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.3%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
4.3%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
14%
11%
3.3%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.2%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
8.6%
5.7%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.84 points better than Dundee in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 0.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.53 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.53 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 5.2 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.9
3.8
3.6
4.0
25.5
25.2
25.8
vs Stronger (6)
12.7
13.3
12.0
4.8
5.3
4.3
22.3
22.0
22.7
vs Similar (12)
11.1
12.3
9.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
26.0
26.5
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
9.3
9.1
9.5
3.6
3.2
4.0
25.8
25.2
26.5
% over line
56%
54%
58%
54%
46%
62%
80%
77%
83%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
46%
54%
38%
20%
23%
17%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.7
10.4
3.7
4.0
3.4
25.8
25.8
25.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.9
11.8
10.0
4.7
5.8
3.5
25.8
26.5
25.2
vs Similar (32)
11.2
11.9
10.6
3.3
3.4
3.2
26.1
25.9
26.2
vs Weaker (6)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.8
3.7
4.0
24.3
23.3
25.3
% over line
70%
80%
60%
50%
60%
40%
78%
76%
80%
% under line
30%
20%
40%
50%
40%
60%
22%
24%
20%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.6
Dundee
11.1
Rangers
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.7
ST Mirren
10.5
Ross County
10.4
Motherwell
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
Hibernian
9.8
ST Johnstone
9.7
Aberdeen
9.7
Livingston
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Livingston
3.9
Rangers
3.9
Ross County
3.8
Aberdeen
3.8
Heart Of Midlothian
3.8
Motherwell
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Hibernian
3.6
ST Mirren
3.3
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.6
Motherwell
26.1
Dundee
25.8
Heart Of Midlothian
25.5
Livingston
24.7
ST Johnstone
24.7
Ross County
24.4
Hibernian
24.3
ST Mirren
24.2
Dundee Utd
23.8
Rangers
23.0
Celtic
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.6%
Under 9.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.9%
Under 3.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.3%
Under 21.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
1.07
0.33
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.21
1.43
0.00
0.43
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.64
0.71
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.78
0.67
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
1.07
0.33
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.21
1.29
0.29
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.50
0.71
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.58
0.33
0.56
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €17m more valuable than Dundee's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €11m more valuable than Dundee's (€12m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dundee's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €3m more valuable than Dundee's (€6m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone