Heart Of Midlothian are the clear favorites to lift the trophy, with a 51% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Dundee win. The model predicts an average of 2.7 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% probability. Hearts, playing at home against a weaker side, have been prolific, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding just 1.0. Dundee, on the road to a stronger opponent, have struggled, netting only 0.43 goals while conceding 2.86. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (94.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.4%), Home +2 handicap (91.4%) and Under 4.5 (86.7%). Hearts’ recent unbeaten run of five games, ending with a 2-1 win over St Johnstone, contrasts with Dundee’s recent loss to Hibernian, setting the stage for a likely Hearts triumph.
Results analysis
Heart Of Midlothian’s unbeaten run in their last five fixtures continued as they secured a 3-1 victory over Dundee, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would win. The model had given the home win a 51% probability, and its call proved correct. The final score of 3-1 matched the actual result, giving the model a clean hit on the outcome. Every suggested selection also proved accurate: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (94.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.4%), Home +2 handicap (91.4%) and Under 4.5 (86.7%) all hit. The match reinforced the model’s confidence in the home advantage and the low-scoring nature of the encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.30
1.71
1.43
1.50
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.23
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
2.46
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.43
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.03
1.81
1.94
0.86
2.14
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.69
1.67
2.50
0.43
2.86
vs Similar (17)
1.65
1.53
1.90
1.60
1.29
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
3-1 ✓
5.3%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.9%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.6%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Formartine United
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Celtic
2.60
Musselburgh Athletic
2.40
Clydebank
2.40
Jeanfield Swifts
2.33
Cowdenbeath
2.33
Irvine Meadow
2.25
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.25
Aberdeen
2.20
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Buckie Thistle
2.00
Cove Rangers
2.00
Dunfermline
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Banks O' Dee
2.00
Bo'ness United
2.00
Lochee United
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Turriff United
2.00
Camelon Juniors
2.00
Hamilton Academical
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00
Hibernian
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Ayr Utd
2.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.00
Fraserburgh
1.75
Broxburn Athletic
1.75
Dundee North End
1.75
Brechin
1.75
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Cupar Hearts
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Newtongrange Star
1.50
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Rangers
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Dunbar United
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Culter
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Forfar
1.33
Livingston
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Queen's Park
1.25
Partick
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Wick Academy
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Raith Rovers
0.50
Huntly
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.50
Keith
0.50
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Spartans
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Beith
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Albion Rovers
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Deveronvale
0.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.00
Morton
0.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.00
Preston Athletic
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Rothes
0.00
BSC Glasgow
0.00
Alloa Athletic
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Forres Mechanics
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Creetown
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Pollok
0.00
Nairn County
0.00
Haddington Athletic
0.00
Edinburgh University
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Fort William
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
East Stirlingshire
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Glenafton Athletic
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Tayport
0.00
Dunipace
0.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee are level in average points per game (both 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girvan
5.00
Threave Rovers
4.00
Stirling
4.00
Peterhead
4.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
3.67
Camelon Juniors
3.50
Lochee United
3.33
Ayr Utd
3.33
Cupar Hearts
3.00
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Celtic
3.00
Tynecastle
3.00
Clydebank
3.00
Fraserburgh
2.75
Sauchie Juniors
2.67
Irvine Meadow
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Montrose
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.50
Culter
2.50
Aberdeen
2.40
Bo'ness United
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Heart Of Midlothian
2.25
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Newtongrange Star
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Berwick Rangers
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Partick
2.00
Deveronvale
2.00
Huntly
2.00
Dundee North End
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Preston Athletic
2.00
Formartine United
2.00
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Vale of Leithen
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
East Stirlingshire
2.00
Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Dunfermline
1.67
Livingston
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.67
Musselburgh Athletic
1.60
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Broxburn Athletic
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Brechin
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Buckie Thistle
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Hibernian
1.33
Spartans
1.00
Beith
1.00
Dunbar United
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Banks O' Dee
1.00
Albion Rovers
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Turriff United
1.00
Dalbeattie Star
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.00
Forres Mechanics
1.00
Whitehill Welfare
1.00
Creetown
1.00
Pollok
1.00
Nairn County
1.00
Haddington Athletic
1.00
Edinburgh University
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Tayport
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunipace
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.75
Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Raith Rovers
0.50
Keith
0.50
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Morton
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Rothes
0.00
BSC Glasgow
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Fort William
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.25 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Formartine United
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.33
Celtic
0.40
Newtongrange Star
0.50
Rangers
0.50
Turriff United
0.50
Camelon Juniors
0.50
Aberdeen
0.60
Banks O' Dee
0.67
Jeanfield Swifts
0.67
Hibernian
0.67
Dundee North End
0.75
Clydebank
0.80
Dundonald Bluebell
1.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.00
Darvel
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Carluke Rovers
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Clyde
1.00
ST Mirren
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.00
Clachnacuddin
1.00
Caledonian Braves
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
BSC Glasgow
1.00
Cumnock Juniors
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Stirling
1.00
Penicuik Athletic
1.00
Heart Of Midlothian
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.00
Blackburn United
1.00
Bonnyton Thistle
1.00
Culter
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Sauchie Juniors
1.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.25
Dunfermline
1.33
East Kilbride
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Cowdenbeath
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.33
Fraserburgh
1.50
Stranraer
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Edinburgh City
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Bo'ness United
1.67
Airdrie United
1.67
Brechin
1.75
Inverness CT
2.00
Cupar Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Dalkeith Thistle
2.00
Irvine Meadow
2.00
Dunbar United
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Partick
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00
Annan Athletic
2.00
Kilmarnock
2.00
Gretna 2008
2.00
Bo'ness Athletic
2.00
Dalbeattie Star
2.00
Morton
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Elgin
2.00
Queen's Park
2.00
Keith
2.00
Forres Mechanics
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Stirling University
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00
Dunipace
2.00
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Burntisland Shipyard
2.50
Huntly
2.50
Lochee United
2.67
Beith
3.00
Benburb
3.00
Raith Rovers
3.00
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.00
Preston Athletic
3.00
Alloa Athletic
3.00
Newton Stewart
3.00
Kelty Hearts
3.00
Vale of Leithen
3.00
Creetown
3.00
Pollok
3.00
Nairn County
3.00
Edinburgh University
3.00
Peterhead
3.00
East Stirlingshire
3.00
Tayport
3.00
Dumbarton
3.50
Invergordon
4.00
Glasgow University
4.00
Easthouses Lily
4.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
4.00
Deveronvale
4.00
Haddington Athletic
4.00
Tranent Juniors
4.00
Hawick Royal Albert
4.00
Glenafton Athletic
4.00
Strathspey Thistle
6.00
Coldstream
6.00
St Andrews United
7.00
Rothes
8.00
Fort William
8.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
9.00
Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 6.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.1 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 5.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.3 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.9
11.2
3.6
4.0
3.3
21.1
21.8
20.4
vs Stronger (11)
12.3
11.3
13.8
3.2
3.0
3.4
19.8
19.7
20.0
vs Similar (16)
9.9
11.3
8.8
4.1
4.3
3.9
22.7
23.1
22.2
vs Weaker (23)
11.2
10.4
12.0
3.6
4.4
2.9
20.6
22.1
19.2
% over line
57%
61%
52%
52%
65%
41%
41%
48%
35%
% under line
43%
39%
48%
48%
35%
59%
59%
52%
65%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.5
10.4
3.1
2.9
3.3
19.6
19.5
19.6
vs Stronger (22)
10.5
11.5
9.5
3.5
2.9
4.0
19.4
18.4
20.3
vs Similar (24)
10.5
9.8
11.6
3.2
3.2
3.2
19.8
20.5
18.9
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
64%
73%
55%
38%
30%
48%
33%
27%
40%
% under line
36%
27%
45%
62%
70%
52%
67%
73%
60%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
12.1
Ross County
11.5
Rangers
11.5
Morton
11.4
Hibernian
11.3
Falkirk
11.2
Motherwell
11.2
Dumbarton
11.1
Heart Of Midlothian
11.1
Aberdeen
11.1
Arbroath
10.9
Kilmarnock
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.8
Dunfermline
10.8
Airdrie United
10.6
Dundee
10.5
Stirling
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.4
Cove Rangers
10.3
ST Mirren
10.2
Kelty Hearts
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Annan Athletic
10.0
Partick
10.0
Stenhousemuir
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Forfar
9.5
Clyde
9.5
Montrose
9.4
Cowdenbeath
9.4
Inverness CT
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.4
Stranraer
9.3
Livingston
9.0
Elgin
9.0
Spartans
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Aberdeen
4.7
Morton
4.6
Forfar
4.5
Dundee Utd
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Edinburgh City
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
ST Mirren
4.1
Motherwell
4.1
Hibernian
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Annan Athletic
4.0
Rangers
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
Clyde
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Livingston
3.9
Dundee
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.8
Partick
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Dunfermline
3.7
Ross County
3.6
Montrose
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Airdrie United
3.4
Celtic
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Inverness CT
3.3
Cove Rangers
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Elgin
24.9
Forfar
24.7
Aberdeen
24.2
Edinburgh City
23.3
Livingston
23.2
East Fife
22.5
Spartans
22.3
Morton
22.3
Stenhousemuir
22.2
Motherwell
22.1
Clyde
22.0
Cowdenbeath
21.9
ST Johnstone
21.9
ST Mirren
21.8
Kilmarnock
21.8
Falkirk
21.7
Ross County
21.3
Stirling
21.2
Heart Of Midlothian
21.1
Rangers
21.1
Dundee Utd
21.0
Kelty Hearts
20.9
Annan Athletic
20.7
Hibernian
20.7
Brechin
20.4
Montrose
20.0
Dundee
19.9
Arbroath
19.8
Airdrie United
19.8
Inverness CT
19.8
Stranraer
19.8
Dunfermline
19.6
Partick
19.4
Dumbarton
19.0
Celtic
18.7
Cove Rangers
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.8%
Under 9.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.7%
Under 3.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.1%
Under 21.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heart Of Midlothian or Draw✓ Hit
77.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian or Dundee✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + Dundee
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dundee✗ Miss
49.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Draw + Dundee
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.8%
Under
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.2%
Under
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heart Of Midlothian, so a minus line means Heart Of Midlothian give that many goals of a start and Dundee receive them. At -1, Heart Of Midlothian must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heart Of Midlothian win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Draw
Heart Of Midlothian -2
11.9%
Draw -2
15.9%
Dundee +2
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian -1
27.8%
Draw -1
22.9%
Dundee +1
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian +1
77.6%
Draw +1
13.8%
Dundee -1
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian +2
91.4%
Draw +2
6.2%
Dundee -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.71
0.36
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.54
0.67
0.50
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.31
1.00
0.17
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.06
0.94
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.08
1.00
1.33
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.71
1.10
0.70
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.87
1.00
1.07
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.50
0.67
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.69
1.50
0.83
1.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.62
0.67
1.17
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.82
0.80
0.90
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elton Kabangu29%
James Wilson19%
Yutaro Oda17%
Blair Spittal15%
Musa Drammeh14%
Alan Forrest14%
Lawrence Shankland13%
Michael Steinwender11%
Kenneth Vargas11%
Stephen Kingsley9%
Jamie McCart9%
Frankie Kent9%
Jorge Grant9%
Calem Nieuwenhof8%
Craig Halkett6%
James Penrice5%
Daniel Oyegoke4%
Yan Dhanda3%
Craig Gordon0%
Cameron Devlin0%
Kye Rowles0%
Barrie McKay0%
Beni Baningime0%
Liam Boyce0%
Zander Clark0%
Ryan Fulton0%
Harry Milne0%
Sander Erik Kartum0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Malachi Boateng0%
Gerald Taylor0%
Adam Forrester0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cameron Devlin31%
James Penrice31%
Adam Forrester27%
Gerald Taylor25%
Craig Halkett22%
Lawrence Shankland21%
Stephen Kingsley18%
Kye Rowles16%
Jorge Grant14%
Elton Kabangu14%
Frankie Kent13%
Daniel Oyegoke12%
Yan Dhanda10%
Beni Baningime10%
Sander Erik Kartum8%
Kenneth Vargas8%
Malachi Boateng8%
Craig Gordon5%
James Wilson4%
Alan Forrest3%
Michael Steinwender0%
Barrie McKay0%
Liam Boyce0%
Yutaro Oda0%
Zander Clark0%
Ryan Fulton0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Harry Milne0%
Calem Nieuwenhof0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Musa Drammeh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Fulton33%
Lawrence Shankland21%
Liam Boyce17%
James Penrice13%
Kenneth Vargas11%
Beni Baningime10%
Malachi Boateng8%
James Wilson7%
Blair Spittal7%
Elton Kabangu7%
Musa Drammeh5%
Yan Dhanda3%
Adam Forrester3%
Cameron Devlin3%
Jorge Grant3%
Alan Forrest3%
Craig Gordon0%
Kye Rowles0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Frankie Kent0%
Barrie McKay0%
Stephen Kingsley0%
Yutaro Oda0%
Zander Clark0%
Craig Halkett0%
Jamie McCart0%
Harry Milne0%
Sander Erik Kartum0%
Daniel Oyegoke0%
Calem Nieuwenhof0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Gerald Taylor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lawrence Shankland34%
Elton Kabangu29%
Musa Drammeh18%
Liam Boyce8%
James Wilson7%
Craig Halkett6%
Blair Spittal5%
Kye Rowles4%
Cameron Devlin3%
Jorge Grant3%
Kenneth Vargas3%
Alan Forrest3%
Craig Gordon0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Frankie Kent0%
Yan Dhanda0%
Barrie McKay0%
Stephen Kingsley0%
Beni Baningime0%
Yutaro Oda0%
Zander Clark0%
Ryan Fulton0%
Jamie McCart0%
James Penrice0%
Harry Milne0%
Sander Erik Kartum0%
Daniel Oyegoke0%
Calem Nieuwenhof0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Malachi Boateng0%
Gerald Taylor0%
Adam Forrester0%
Dundee
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke McCowan67%
Simon Murray37%
Lyall Cameron18%
Scott Tiffoney17%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden15%
Curtis Main14%
Oluwaseun Adewumi14%
Jordan McGhee13%
Ziyad Larkeche11%
Joe Shaughnessy9%
Aaron Donnelly9%
Juan Portales4%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Clark Robertson0%
Scott Fraser0%
Trevor Carson0%
Sean Kelly0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Imari Samuels0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Sammy Braybrooke0%
Luke Graham0%
Julien Vetro0%
Cesar Garza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Imari Samuels33%
Luke Graham33%
Cesar Garza33%
Joe Shaughnessy27%
Mohammad Sylla24%
Simon Murray24%
Ziyad Larkeche22%
Ethan Ingram21%
Clark Robertson19%
Jordan McGhee17%
Juan Portales17%
Billy Koumetio16%
Josh Mulligan15%
Trevor Carson14%
Aaron Donnelly9%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden9%
Ryan Astley8%
Curtis Main7%
Oluwaseun Adewumi7%
Jon McCracken6%
Lyall Cameron6%
Scott Tiffoney6%
Scott Fraser0%
Sean Kelly0%
Luke McCowan0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Sammy Braybrooke0%
Julien Vetro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luke McCowan33%
Oluwaseun Adewumi18%
Charlie Reilly17%
Lyall Cameron15%
Josh Mulligan15%
Ryan Astley12%
Finlay Robertson10%
Joe Shaughnessy9%
Juan Portales8%
Ziyad Larkeche7%
Jon McCracken6%
Simon Murray5%
Trevor Carson5%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden3%
Scott Tiffoney3%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Clark Robertson0%
Scott Fraser0%
Curtis Main0%
Sean Kelly0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Imari Samuels0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Sammy Braybrooke0%
Luke Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Julien Vetro0%
Cesar Garza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke McCowan33%
Simon Murray26%
Joe Shaughnessy9%
Lyall Cameron9%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden9%
Curtis Main7%
Oluwaseun Adewumi7%
Ziyad Larkeche4%
Finlay Robertson3%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Clark Robertson0%
Scott Fraser0%
Juan Portales0%
Trevor Carson0%
Scott Tiffoney0%
Sean Kelly0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Imari Samuels0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Sammy Braybrooke0%
Luke Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Julien Vetro0%
Cesar Garza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €17m more valuable than Dundee's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €11m more valuable than Dundee's (€12m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dundee's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €3m more valuable than Dundee's (€6m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Kilmarnock
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Partick