Heart of Midlothian’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 2-1 win over St Johnstone, sets a strong tone for their home outing. The model rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 69% probability, with a 21% chance of a draw and only 10% for Dundee to triumph. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, which carries a 14.4% probability. Hearts’ home form against weaker opposition shows an average of 2.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Dundee’s away form against stronger teams yields just 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Suggested picks include an away under 3.5 goals at 99.6%, under 7.5 at 99.4% with a 3% edge, away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3% with a 6% edge, under 6.5 at 98.1% with a 4% edge, home +2 handicap at 97.4% with a 5% edge, away under 2.5 goals at 97.3% with a 6% edge, and home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.7% with a 4% edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win
69.2%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.49
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.54
10Bet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Draw
21.1%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.24
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.70
Betfair
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
Dundee win
9.6%
Avg Implied 15.2% · @ 6.15
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
7.00
Betano
6.90
Dafabet
6.40
1xBet
6.26
Marathonbet
6.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.20
1.94
0.76
1.38
1.77
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.71
1.25
1.50
1.33
4.33
vs Similar (14)
1.93
0.71
2.00
0.50
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.78
2.40
0.60
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
2.07
1.29
1.12
1.38
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.75
1.67
1.67
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.19
2.14
1.14
1.00
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.3%
@ 1.19-3.2%
Under 1.5
24.7%
@ 4.33+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
Under
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.65-7.5%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 2.20+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.7%
@ 2.58-8.6%
Under 3.5
72.3%
@ 1.47+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.65
Betano
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Both teams to score
Yes
41.6%
@ 1.73-12.1%
No
58.4%
@ 2.00+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
No
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.4%@ 7.46+8.4%
1-0
13.3%@ 7.50+7.4%
1-1
9.9%@ 7.71+4.1%
3-0
9.7%@ 10.53+5.5%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.60+3.3%
0-0
7.9%@ 12.50+4.4%
3-1
6.1%@ 10.72+2.0%
4-0
4.9%@ 17.92+2.4%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
1
13%
9.9%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.1%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
3
9.7%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.9%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Heart Of Midlothian is 1.00 points better than Dundee in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.66 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.71 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Heart Of Midlothian is 9.7 percentage points better than Dundee in terms of average possession (53% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 6.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 4.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.7 · Total 18.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.7
4.3
3.3
5.4
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Stronger (11)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.6
3.7
5.8
23.8
24.6
23.0
vs Similar (24)
10.2
9.8
10.6
4.7
3.8
5.7
25.6
25.2
26.1
vs Weaker (15)
10.4
9.8
10.9
3.5
2.3
4.6
23.7
21.2
25.9
% over line
63%
61%
65%
60%
38%
83%
67%
61%
74%
% under line
37%
39%
35%
40%
62%
17%
33%
39%
26%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.2
3.2
3.0
3.3
22.2
21.8
22.5
vs Stronger (21)
10.2
10.1
10.2
2.8
2.9
2.6
21.6
22.0
21.1
vs Similar (27)
9.0
9.6
8.5
3.8
3.4
4.1
22.9
22.2
23.5
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
12.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.0
14.0
-
% over line
60%
65%
55%
44%
42%
46%
53%
43%
64%
% under line
40%
35%
45%
56%
58%
54%
47%
57%
36%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Aberdeen
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.7
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.7
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.7
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.6
Falkirk
25.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.2
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.4%
@ 1.56-7.2%
Under 9.5
47.6%
@ 2.30+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.4%
@ 1.83+8.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
@ 1.83-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.2%
Under 21.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heart Of Midlothian or Draw
90.4%
Avg Implied 84.1% · @ 1.12
Edge
+6.3%
69%
21%
10%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Heart Of Midlothian or Dundee
78.9%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.5%
69%
21%
10%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + Dundee
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Draw or Dundee
30.8%
Avg Implied 37.6% · @ 2.50
Edge
-6.8%
69%
21%
10%
covers Draw + Dundee
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5
Over
86.8%
@ 1.09+1.5%
Under
13.2%
@ 6.35-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Under
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Betano
6.20
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5
Over
60.1%
@ 1.53-0.8%
Under
39.9%
@ 2.38+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
BetVictor
2.40
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5
Over
33.0%
@ 2.65-2.1%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.44+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.85
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.61
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 3.5
Over
14.7%
@ 5.29-2.9%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.13+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Under
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Dundee over/under 0.5
Over
46.9%
@ 1.54-13.2%
Under
53.1%
@ 2.33+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.30
Dundee over/under 1.5
Over
13.3%
@ 3.67-12.1%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.25+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Under
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Dundee over/under 2.5
Over
2.7%
@ 9.99-6.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Dundee over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
@ 34.00-99.6%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heart Of Midlothian, so a minus line means Heart Of Midlothian give that many goals of a start and Dundee receive them. At -1, Heart Of Midlothian must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heart Of Midlothian win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heart Of Midlothian)
Heart Of Midlothian -2
23.1%
@ 4.28+2.2%
Draw -2
21.6%
@ 4.39+1.2%
Dundee +2
55.3%
@ 1.52-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Draw
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Handicap -1 (Heart Of Midlothian)
Heart Of Midlothian -1
44.7%
@ 2.33+6.0%
Draw -1
24.6%
@ 3.59-0.5%
Dundee +1
30.8%
@ 2.48-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.35
Handicap +1 (Heart Of Midlothian)
Heart Of Midlothian +1
90.4%
@ 1.12+11.1%
Draw +1
7.1%
@ 6.72-6.1%
Dundee -1
2.6%
@ 11.76-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (Heart Of Midlothian)
Heart Of Midlothian +2
97.4%
@ 1.02+5.3%
Draw +2
2.1%
@ 17.00-3.4%
Dundee -2
0.5%
@ 41.00-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Bet365
41.00
Betfair
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.59
0.18
0.85
0.85
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.29
0.75
0.12
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.22
0.80
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.64
0.71
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.58
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.17
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.50
0.86
0.57
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.0%
@ 1.30+1.3%
Under 0.5
27.0%
@ 3.29-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
William Hil
3.60
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.0%
@ 2.36-1.3%
Under 1.5
62.0%
@ 1.53+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Under
William Hil
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.4%
@ 5.53-1.4%
Under 2.5
84.6%
@ 1.11+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Under
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.6%
@ 1.56+1.1%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.29-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Under
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.20
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.0%
@ 3.71-0.9%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.23+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.1%
@ 9.93-3.3%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.50
1xBet
9.80
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Dundee over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.9%
@ 2.66-4.9%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.42+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.39
Dundee over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.3%
@ 10.12-2.9%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.50
Unibet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Dundee over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.35
0.59
0.54
0.92
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.57
1.25
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.43
1.25
0.38
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.56
1.60
0.60
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
1.43
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.17
1.17
0.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.69
1.29
0.57
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.5%
@ 1.17+0.9%
Under 0.5
19.5%
@ 4.55-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.2%
@ 1.84-1.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
@ 1.88+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.89
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 3.62-5.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.25+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.85
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.6%
@ 1.35-2.0%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.95+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.7%
@ 2.66-6.0%
Under
71.3%
@ 1.42+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.64
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
10Bet
1.38
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.5%
@ 6.10-4.6%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.09+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Dundee over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.0%
@ 2.22-5.7%
Under
64.0%
@ 1.59+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
Dundee over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.2%
@ 7.37-4.3%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.06+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.50
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Dundee over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
@ 12.50-6.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Under 6.5
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+4.2%
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+5.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+6.7%
Under 5.5
94.7%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+5.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+4.3%
Home or Draw
90.4%
1.12
Unibet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
+6.3%
Home +1 handicap
90.4%
1.12
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+11.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+4.6%
Under 4.5
86.9%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+7.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
86.8%
1.09
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
+1.5%
Away under 1.5 goals
86.7%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+12.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
85.3%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+2.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.6%
1.11
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
+1.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+0.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+5.8%
Home or Away
78.9%
1.20
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+0.5%
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.23
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
+0.9%
Over 1.5
75.3%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
-3.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.0%
1.30
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+1.3%
Under 3.5
72.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
+8.6%
Under 11.5 corners
71.3%
1.51
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+9.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.3%
1.42
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
10Bet
1.38
-
+6.0%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.42
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.39
+4.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Wilson60%
Josh McPake40%
C. Miller29%
Tom Renaud25%
L. Mendy25%
P. Kabore17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
H. Milne0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Milne33%
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
P. Kabore33%
Tomas Magnusson17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Jordi Altena14%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
S. Kerjota0%
L. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh McPake40%
Rogers Mato33%
B. Spittal29%
Cláudio Braga29%
S. Kerjota20%
J. McCart17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
C. Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
L. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga57%
L. Mendy25%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
Dundee
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Westley40%
D. Wright20%
C. Reilly20%
Owen Bevan20%
Joe Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
F. Robertson0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
B. Wales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton20%
D. Wright20%
Ryan Finnigan20%
J. Westley20%
Owen Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
F. Robertson0%
C. Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
B. Wales0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest20%
Joe Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
D. Wright0%
F. Robertson0%
C. Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
J. Westley0%
B. Wales0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Reilly20%
J. Westley20%
Joe Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
D. Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
F. Robertson0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
B. Wales0%
Owen Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €17m more valuable than Dundee's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €11m more valuable than Dundee's (€12m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dundee's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €3m more valuable than Dundee's (€6m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock