Heart Of Midlothian are tipped to win, with a 60% chance of triumph, a 24% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of a Falkirk victory. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most likely total of two goals at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4% chance. Heart Of Midlothian, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 2.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Falkirk, on the road, average 1.0 scored and 1.18 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Home +2 handicap (94.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.2%), Under 5.5 (93.8%), Over 19.5 fouls (90.4%) and Home under 3.5 goals (87.6%). Heart Of Midlothian’s recent unbeaten run, ending with a 2-1 win over ST Johnstone, contrasts with Falkirk’s recent defeat, 1-2 to Celtic.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Heart Of Midlothian, failed to secure the win the model had predicted. The final score was 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the home side a 60% chance of victory, but the match ended in a stalemate. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Under 6.5 at 97.7%, Home +2 handicap at 94.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.2%, Under 5.5 at 93.8%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 87.6%. Heart Of Midlothian were unbeaten in their last five, while Falkirk had just come off a defeat. The match delivered a surprising draw, proving the model’s prediction of a home win was incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
60.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Falkirk win✗ Miss
15.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.67
2.40
0.60
1.93
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
1.82
0.91
2.17
0.67
1.40
1.20
vs Weaker (15)
2.40
0.47
2.57
0.43
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.23
1.73
1.07
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.14
1.60
1.10
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (4)
4.00
0.75
3.00
1.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.4%
2-0
11.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
4.5%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Falkirk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
4.5%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
1
11%
11%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.1%
6.2%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Falkirk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Formartine United
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Celtic
2.60
Musselburgh Athletic
2.40
Clydebank
2.40
Jeanfield Swifts
2.33
Cowdenbeath
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.25
Aberdeen
2.20
ST Mirren
2.00
Banks O' Dee
2.00
Turriff United
2.00
Lochee United
2.00
Camelon Juniors
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00
Bo'ness United
2.00
Hibernian
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Dunfermline
2.00
Ayr Utd
2.00
Hamilton Academical
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Cove Rangers
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Buckie Thistle
2.00
Dundee North End
1.75
Brechin
1.75
Broxburn Athletic
1.75
Fraserburgh
1.75
Dunbar United
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Culter
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Rangers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Newtongrange Star
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Livingston
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Queen's Park
1.25
Tweedmouth
1.03
Lossiemouth
1.03
Johnstone Burgh
1.03
St Cadoc's
1.03
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Wick Academy
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Keith
0.50
Raith Rovers
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.50
Huntly
0.50
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Dunipace
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Albion Rovers
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Forres Mechanics
0.00
Nairn County
0.00
Preston Athletic
0.00
East Stirlingshire
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Tayport
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Deveronvale
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Creetown
0.00
Glenafton Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Edinburgh University
0.00
Spartans
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Alloa Athletic
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.00
Pollok
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Haddington Athletic
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk are level in average points per game (both 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girvan
5.00
Threave Rovers
4.00
Peterhead
4.00
Stirling
4.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
3.67
Camelon Juniors
3.50
Lochee United
3.33
Ayr Utd
3.33
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Clydebank
3.00
Celtic
3.00
Tynecastle
3.00
Fraserburgh
2.75
Sauchie Juniors
2.67
Culter
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.50
Montrose
2.50
Aberdeen
2.40
Bo'ness United
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Heart Of Midlothian
2.25
ST Mirren
2.00
Formartine United
2.00
Dundee North End
2.00
Preston Athletic
2.00
East Stirlingshire
2.00
Vale of Leithen
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Deveronvale
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Berwick Rangers
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Partick
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Newtongrange Star
2.00
Huntly
2.00
Dunfermline
1.67
Livingston
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.67
Musselburgh Athletic
1.60
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Brechin
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Broxburn Athletic
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Tweedmouth
1.41
Lossiemouth
1.41
Johnstone Burgh
1.41
St Cadoc's
1.41
Hibernian
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Buckie Thistle
1.33
Banks O' Dee
1.00
Dunbar United
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Dunipace
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Albion Rovers
1.00
Forres Mechanics
1.00
Nairn County
1.00
Turriff United
1.00
Tayport
1.00
Whitehill Welfare
1.00
Creetown
1.00
Edinburgh University
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Dalbeattie Star
1.00
Pollok
1.00
Haddington Athletic
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.75
Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Keith
0.50
Raith Rovers
0.50
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.25 goals better than Falkirk in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Formartine United
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.33
Celtic
0.40
Turriff United
0.50
Camelon Juniors
0.50
Rangers
0.50
Newtongrange Star
0.50
Aberdeen
0.60
Banks O' Dee
0.67
Jeanfield Swifts
0.67
Hibernian
0.67
Dundee North End
0.75
Clydebank
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Bonnyton Thistle
1.00
Clachnacuddin
1.00
Carluke Rovers
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.00
Caledonian Braves
1.00
Dundonald Bluebell
1.00
Sauchie Juniors
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Heart Of Midlothian
1.00
Darvel
1.00
Cumnock Juniors
1.00
Culter
1.00
Blackburn United
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Stirling
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.00
Penicuik Athletic
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.33
Dunfermline
1.33
East Kilbride
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Fraserburgh
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Edinburgh City
1.50
Stranraer
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Airdrie United
1.67
Bo'ness United
1.67
Brechin
1.75
Dunbar United
2.00
Kilmarnock
2.00
Dunipace
2.00
Dalkeith Thistle
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Forres Mechanics
2.00
Stirling University
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00
Bo'ness Athletic
2.00
Keith
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Gretna 2008
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Partick
2.00
Morton
2.00
Queen's Park
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Annan Athletic
2.00
Elgin
2.00
Dalbeattie Star
2.00
Tweedmouth
2.09
Lossiemouth
2.09
Johnstone Burgh
2.09
St Cadoc's
2.09
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Burntisland Shipyard
2.50
Huntly
2.50
Lochee United
2.67
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00
Nairn County
3.00
Preston Athletic
3.00
East Stirlingshire
3.00
Vale of Leithen
3.00
Tayport
3.00
Creetown
3.00
Benburb
3.00
Edinburgh University
3.00
Raith Rovers
3.00
Alloa Athletic
3.00
Peterhead
3.00
Kelty Hearts
3.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.00
Pollok
3.00
Newton Stewart
3.00
Dumbarton
3.50
Hawick Royal Albert
4.00
Glasgow University
4.00
Tranent Juniors
4.00
Deveronvale
4.00
Glenafton Athletic
4.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
4.00
Easthouses Lily
4.00
Invergordon
4.00
Haddington Athletic
4.00
Strathspey Thistle
6.00
Coldstream
6.00
St Andrews United
7.00
Rothes
8.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
9.00
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkirk
For 5.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
22.7
22.4
23.0
vs Stronger (6)
12.2
15.7
8.7
3.0
3.3
2.7
21.0
20.3
21.7
vs Similar (18)
9.1
9.4
8.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
25.0
26.6
23.6
vs Weaker (26)
11.1
10.4
11.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
21.1
19.3
22.8
% over line
61%
65%
57%
40%
42%
38%
49%
45%
52%
% under line
39%
35%
43%
60%
58%
62%
51%
55%
48%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.6
10.4
2.5
2.4
2.5
25.5
24.9
26.0
vs Stronger (5)
9.5
10.0
9.0
2.8
3.0
2.7
25.8
24.5
27.0
vs Similar (36)
9.3
8.2
10.2
2.8
2.6
3.1
25.7
25.1
26.2
vs Weaker (9)
13.0
11.0
15.0
0.9
1.2
0.6
22.5
24.0
21.0
% over line
48%
36%
60%
32%
38%
27%
76%
71%
80%
% under line
52%
64%
40%
68%
62%
73%
24%
29%
20%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.6
Ross County
11.4
Morton
11.0
Stirling
10.9
Hibernian
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.8
Celtic
10.8
Aberdeen
10.7
ST Mirren
10.7
Falkirk
10.7
Dumbarton
10.6
Rangers
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.4
Dundee
10.3
Airdrie United
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.3
Stranraer
10.2
Elgin
10.2
Kilmarnock
10.2
Partick
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Arbroath
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.7
Dunfermline
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Cowdenbeath
9.4
Motherwell
9.4
Clyde
9.4
Livingston
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
9.2
Kelty Hearts
9.2
Inverness CT
9.1
Cove Rangers
9.1
Spartans
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Montrose
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.9
Peterhead
5.4
Edinburgh City
5.2
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Forfar
5.0
Elgin
4.9
Morton
4.9
Ayr Utd
4.8
Clyde
4.6
Hibernian
4.5
Aberdeen
4.5
Motherwell
4.5
Stranraer
4.4
Stirling
4.3
Spartans
4.3
Partick
4.3
Stenhousemuir
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Livingston
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.1
East Fife
4.1
Falkirk
3.9
ST Mirren
3.9
Kelty Hearts
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Dunfermline
3.8
Montrose
3.8
Dumbarton
3.7
Brechin
3.5
Celtic
3.5
Dundee
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Inverness CT
3.2
Arbroath
3.2
Cove Rangers
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.4
Peterhead
26.2
Livingston
25.6
Motherwell
25.0
Rangers
24.3
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.0
East Fife
23.9
Aberdeen
23.8
Elgin
23.6
Falkirk
23.5
Stenhousemuir
23.4
Kilmarnock
23.4
Heart Of Midlothian
22.9
Clyde
22.6
Morton
22.5
ST Johnstone
22.1
Cowdenbeath
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
Stranraer
21.8
Hibernian
21.7
Stirling
21.5
Inverness CT
21.5
Dundee
21.4
Spartans
21.2
Montrose
21.2
Annan Athletic
21.2
ST Mirren
21.1
Dunfermline
20.9
Celtic
20.8
Kelty Hearts
20.8
Cove Rangers
20.8
Ross County
20.8
Arbroath
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.3
Partick
20.2
Dumbarton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.0%
Under 9.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.8%
Under 3.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.1%
Under 21.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heart Of Midlothian or Draw✓ Hit
84.3%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian or Falkirk✗ Miss
76.1%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Falkirk✓ Hit
39.6%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Draw + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heart Of Midlothian, so a minus line means Heart Of Midlothian give that many goals of a start and Falkirk receive them. At -1, Heart Of Midlothian must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heart Of Midlothian win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Falkirk
Heart Of Midlothian -2
17.6%
Draw -2
18.9%
Falkirk +2
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Falkirk
Heart Of Midlothian -1
36.5%
Draw -1
23.8%
Falkirk +1
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian +1
84.3%
Draw +1
10.4%
Falkirk -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian +2
94.7%
Draw +2
4.0%
Falkirk -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.07
0.27
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.83
0.33
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.27
1.14
0.14
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.67
0.60
0.50
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.27
1.33
0.33
1.13
0.20
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.27
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
0.20
1.43
0.29
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.13
0.40
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
1.00
0.60
0.73
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lawrence Shankland52%
Cláudio Braga32%
Craig Halkett13%
Pierre Landry Kaboré12%
Stuart Findlay12%
Tomas Magnusson11%
Alexandros Kyziridis11%
Islam Chesnokov10%
Stephen Kingsley10%
Blair Spittal8%
Marc Leonard8%
Cameron Devlin7%
Oisin McEntee7%
Frankie Kent5%
Harry Milne3%
Craig Gordon0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Beni Baningime0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Jamie McCart0%
Alan Forrest0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Rogers Mato0%
Ageu0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Craig Halkett30%
Harry Milne27%
Marc Leonard23%
Cameron Devlin21%
Christian Borchgrevink20%
Oisin McEntee18%
Stuart Findlay15%
Ageu14%
Lawrence Shankland14%
Alexandros Kyziridis13%
Michael Steinwender12%
Blair Spittal12%
Tomas Magnusson11%
Frankie Kent10%
Islam Chesnokov10%
Pierre Landry Kaboré8%
Beni Baningime8%
Alan Forrest8%
Jordi Altena6%
Cláudio Braga5%
Jamie McCart5%
Stephen Kingsley5%
Craig Gordon0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marc Leonard23%
Harry Milne20%
Alexandros Kyziridis18%
Sabah Kerjota11%
Oisin McEntee11%
Lawrence Shankland10%
Blair Spittal8%
Pierre Landry Kaboré8%
Cláudio Braga8%
Michael Steinwender6%
Jordi Altena6%
Stephen Kingsley5%
Beni Baningime4%
Stuart Findlay3%
Craig Gordon0%
Cameron Devlin0%
Frankie Kent0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Craig Halkett0%
Jamie McCart0%
Alan Forrest0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Islam Chesnokov0%
Rogers Mato0%
Ageu0%
James Wilson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lawrence Shankland45%
Cláudio Braga39%
Pierre Landry Kaboré8%
Marc Leonard8%
Harry Milne7%
Alexandros Kyziridis5%
Stuart Findlay3%
Craig Gordon0%
Cameron Devlin0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Frankie Kent0%
Stephen Kingsley0%
Beni Baningime0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Craig Halkett0%
Jamie McCart0%
Alan Forrest0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Islam Chesnokov0%
Rogers Mato0%
Ageu0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Falkirk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ben Broggio36%
Barney Stewart29%
Ross Maclver25%
Brian Graham21%
Calvin Miller18%
Louie Marsh14%
Kyrell Wilson11%
Finn Yeats10%
Henry Cartwright8%
Filip Lissah7%
Scott Arfield7%
Dylan Tait5%
Henry Cartwright5%
Ethan Williams4%
Connor Allan4%
Ethan Ross3%
Liam Henderson3%
Scott Bain0%
Sam Hart0%
Ryan Edwards0%
Aidan Nesbitt0%
Coll Donaldson0%
Gary Oliver0%
Brad Spencer0%
Leon McCann0%
Alfie Agyeman0%
Nicky Hogarth0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Keelan Adams0%
Trey Samuel Ogunsuyi0%
Brian Graham0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brad Spencer34%
Coll Donaldson30%
Dylan Tait26%
Leon McCann23%
Sam Hart22%
Filip Lissah22%
Henry Cartwright18%
Keelan Adams17%
Connor Allan16%
Calvin Miller16%
Liam Henderson15%
Nicky Hogarth14%
Louie Marsh14%
Kyrell Wilson14%
Brian Graham11%
Ethan Ross10%
Henry Cartwright8%
Ben Broggio7%
Scott Arfield7%
Scott Bain6%
Barney Stewart6%
Finn Yeats5%
Ethan Williams4%
Ryan Edwards0%
Aidan Nesbitt0%
Gary Oliver0%
Ross Maclver0%
Alfie Agyeman0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Trey Samuel Ogunsuyi0%
Brian Graham0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Louie Marsh29%
Calvin Miller21%
Ben Broggio14%
Barney Stewart12%
Leon McCann12%
Coll Donaldson10%
Ethan Williams9%
Ross Maclver8%
Brad Spencer5%
Keelan Adams4%
Kyrell Wilson4%
Ethan Ross3%
Dylan Tait3%
Scott Bain0%
Scott Arfield0%
Sam Hart0%
Ryan Edwards0%
Brian Graham0%
Aidan Nesbitt0%
Gary Oliver0%
Liam Henderson0%
Alfie Agyeman0%
Nicky Hogarth0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Filip Lissah0%
Henry Cartwright0%
Finn Yeats0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Connor Allan0%
Trey Samuel Ogunsuyi0%
Brian Graham0%
Henry Cartwright0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Louie Marsh29%
Calvin Miller24%
Barney Stewart24%
Ethan Williams9%
Ross Maclver8%
Dylan Tait8%
Ben Broggio7%
Alfie Agyeman5%
Finn Yeats5%
Kyrell Wilson4%
Brad Spencer3%
Scott Bain0%
Scott Arfield0%
Sam Hart0%
Ryan Edwards0%
Ethan Ross0%
Brian Graham0%
Aidan Nesbitt0%
Coll Donaldson0%
Gary Oliver0%
Liam Henderson0%
Leon McCann0%
Nicky Hogarth0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Filip Lissah0%
Henry Cartwright0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Connor Allan0%
Keelan Adams0%
Trey Samuel Ogunsuyi0%
Brian Graham0%
Henry Cartwright0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €16m more valuable than Falkirk's (€22m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €11m more valuable than Falkirk's (€12m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €3m more valuable than Falkirk's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €2m more valuable than Falkirk's (€6m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Dundee
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath