Heart of Midlothian face Hibernian in a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 35% for a home victory, 29% for a draw and 36% for the visitors, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals is 2.6, with the most probable total being two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance, while the model’s pick remains an away win. Heart of Midlothian, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Hibernian, on the road, average 1.0 scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 84.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.5%, Under 3.5 at 74.2%, Over 1.5 at 74.0%, Under 4.5 cards at 70.3% and Over 2.5 cards at 70.1%. The match is a tight one, with both sides capable of turning the tide.
Results analysis
Heart Of Midlothian’s unbeaten run in their last five matches ended as the model’s favourite, the away win, proved correct with Hibernian taking the game 0-2. The prediction model had given the away side a 36% chance of victory, and the result matched that expectation. The model’s selections largely came through: Under 5.5 cards hit at 84.1%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 80.5%, Under 3.5 hit at 74.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 74.0%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 70.1%. Only Under 4.5 cards missed, falling short of the 70.3% probability. Overall, the favoured outcome and most picks were confirmed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.54
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.29
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernian win✓ Hit
36.3%
Avg Implied 34.8% · @ 2.69
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
1.14
1.57
0.62
1.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.62
0.75
2.00
0.50
3.25
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.75
1.67
2.00
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
1.07
1.14
1.14
0.29
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.43
1.38
1.19
1.14
1.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.00
0.50
1.25
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.22
1.83
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
1.29
1.50
1.33
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.4%
@ 2.00+0.2%
Under 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.79-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
0-2 ✓
6.5%
2-0
6.1%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Hibernian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
8.7%
6.5%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.4%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.1%
8.0%
5.2%
2.3%
0.7%
3
2.6%
3.4%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Hibernian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
ST Mirren
0.97
Ross County
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.47 points worse than Hibernian in terms of average points per game (0.77 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.03
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.37 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.10 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
For 4.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.8
8.8
4.4
4.5
4.3
27.9
27.1
28.6
vs Stronger (11)
9.8
10.4
9.3
4.2
4.8
3.7
26.5
26.4
26.7
vs Similar (14)
9.3
9.7
9.0
5.6
6.0
5.2
32.6
33.7
31.8
vs Weaker (25)
10.0
11.4
8.4
3.8
3.7
3.9
25.9
24.4
27.5
% over line
52%
62%
42%
58%
58%
58%
84%
83%
85%
% under line
48%
38%
58%
42%
42%
42%
16%
17%
15%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.5
9.7
3.7
4.0
3.3
22.8
23.2
22.4
vs Stronger (12)
9.7
9.8
9.5
4.5
5.3
3.7
20.1
21.2
19.0
vs Similar (14)
9.9
9.5
10.5
4.2
4.2
4.2
25.1
24.5
26.0
vs Weaker (24)
9.4
9.4
9.3
3.0
3.2
2.7
22.8
23.2
22.3
% over line
54%
54%
54%
48%
54%
42%
56%
65%
46%
% under line
46%
46%
46%
52%
46%
58%
44%
35%
54%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.5
Ross County
10.5
Rangers
10.2
ST Johnstone
9.9
Celtic
9.8
Heart Of Midlothian
9.7
ST Mirren
9.6
Hibernian
9.6
Motherwell
9.6
Livingston
9.2
Kilmarnock
9.0
Aberdeen
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Rangers
3.9
Aberdeen
3.9
Ross County
3.8
Kilmarnock
3.7
Hibernian
3.7
Motherwell
3.5
ST Mirren
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.3
Hamilton
3.3
Celtic
3.3
Livingston
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.9
Aberdeen
26.9
Hamilton
25.4
Kilmarnock
24.8
Motherwell
24.3
Ross County
24.3
Rangers
24.0
ST Mirren
23.8
ST Johnstone
23.2
Livingston
23.2
Hibernian
22.8
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.2%
Under 9.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.9%
Under 3.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.6%
Under 21.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.83
0.43
0.93
0.12
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.62
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.44
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.29
0.33
0.33
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.71
0.64
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.12
1.33
1.00
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.88
0.69
0.64
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.78
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
1.00
1.17
1.00
0.88
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Passlack33%
Jason Kerr33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Mulligan33%
Ante Šuto33%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €2m more valuable than Hibernian's (€22m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €5m more valuable than Hibernian's (€12m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €4m less valuable than Hibernian's (€4m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian and Hibernian have a similar defence value (both €6m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
ST Johnstone
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Ross County