Heart Of Midlothian are the clear favourites to win, with a 42% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 32% chance of an Inverness CT win. The model predicts an average of 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. Heart Of Midlothian, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded. Inverness CT, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (89.1%), Over 2.5 cards (83.6%), Over 1.5 goals (80.2%), Over 21.5 fouls (79.1%) and Over 8.5 corners (70.8%). The team has been unbeaten in their last five matches, while Inverness CT is coming off a defeat. The final score was 5-1, confirming the Home win prediction.
Results analysis
Heart Of Midlothian’s unbeaten run in their last five fixtures carried over into this match, as they secured a decisive 5-1 victory over Inverness CT. The Pythia model had correctly predicted a Home win, assigning a 42% probability to the outcome. The model’s selections largely materialised: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 89.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 79.1% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.8%. Each of these picks was settled as a hit, confirming the model’s accuracy across the board. The final score of 5-1 matched the predicted Home win, underscoring the model’s reliable forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.93
1.80
1.13
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.33
2.33
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.60
0.90
3.67
1.00
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.56
1.33
0.78
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.37
1.53
1.27
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (30)
1.50
1.37
1.53
1.27
1.47
1.47
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
6.1%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.1%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
1
7.3%
13%
7.7%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.0%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.5%
4.7%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.79
Aberdeen
2.00
Rangers
1.76
ST Johnstone
1.53
Ross County
1.21
Heart Of Midlothian
1.21
Partick
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.08
Motherwell
1.00
Dundee
0.97
Hamilton
0.92
Inverness CT
0.89
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.32 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.79
Aberdeen
1.95
Rangers
1.47
Heart Of Midlothian
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.32
Ross County
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Inverness CT
1.16
Dundee
1.00
Partick
1.00
Hamilton
0.97
Kilmarnock
0.95
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.29 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.66
Aberdeen
0.92
Rangers
1.16
ST Johnstone
1.21
Heart Of Midlothian
1.37
Partick
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Ross County
1.53
Dundee
1.63
Motherwell
1.82
Inverness CT
1.87
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.50 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.87).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inverness CT
For 5.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (40)
10.3
11.0
9.7
5.0
4.8
5.3
28.0
28.6
27.4
vs Stronger (5)
10.6
11.0
10.0
6.6
7.0
6.0
26.4
24.3
29.5
vs Similar (12)
9.5
9.2
9.7
4.9
4.2
5.4
28.8
29.2
28.6
vs Weaker (23)
10.7
11.8
9.5
4.8
4.5
5.1
27.9
29.4
26.2
% over line
60%
60%
60%
75%
65%
85%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
25%
35%
15%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (40)
9.9
9.4
10.3
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.5
25.6
23.4
vs Stronger (40)
9.9
9.4
10.3
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.5
25.6
23.4
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
45%
65%
57%
55%
60%
80%
85%
75%
% under line
45%
55%
35%
43%
45%
40%
20%
15%
25%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
12.0
Celtic
11.2
Kilmarnock
11.1
Dundee
11.0
Aberdeen
10.8
Ross County
10.8
Motherwell
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.1
Hamilton
9.9
Inverness CT
9.9
Partick
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
5.0
Rangers
4.5
Hamilton
4.3
Kilmarnock
3.8
Inverness CT
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.7
Aberdeen
3.6
Dundee
3.6
Motherwell
3.5
Ross County
3.5
Partick
3.3
Celtic
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
28.0
Hamilton
25.6
Ross County
24.8
Aberdeen
24.6
Inverness CT
24.5
Dundee
24.0
Kilmarnock
23.9
ST Johnstone
23.6
Rangers
23.0
Motherwell
22.6
Celtic
22.4
Partick
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.8%
Under 9.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.1%
Under 21.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.20
0.67
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
2.33
1.00
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.31
1.00
0.44
0.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.47
0.53
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.63
0.43
0.47
0.53
0.80
0.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.47
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
1.33
0.00
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.25
0.33
0.33
1.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
1.07
0.73
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (30)
0.87
0.93
1.07
0.73
0.67
1.13
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €22m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€22m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €12m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€12m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
IC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €5m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€6m vs €0m).
Scotland: Premiership 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Aberdeen
Rangers
ST Johnstone
Ross County
Partick
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
Dundee