Heart Of Midlothian’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 2-1 win over ST Johnstone, fuels optimism for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 52% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw and 25% for an Inverness CT victory, making the home win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.4 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1% probability. Heart Of Midlothian average home scoring sits at 3.15 goals per game while conceding 1.15, a stark contrast to Inverness CT’s away average of 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded against stronger opposition. The model’s selections include an 90.2% chance that under 5.5 cards will be hit, an 86.5% probability of over 1.5 goals, an 84.7% chance of over 19.5 fouls, a 79.2% likelihood of under 4.5 cards and a 72.5% probability of over 21.5 fouls.
Results analysis
Heart Of Midlothian extended their unbeaten run with a 3-0 win over Inverness CT, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 52% probability, and the outcome matched the forecast. The model’s selections also proved accurate: Under 5.5 cards hit at 90.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 86.5%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84.7%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 79.2%, and Over 21.5 fouls hit at 72.5%. Hearts’ recent form, unbeaten in five matches, and Inverness’s recent defeat helped explain the decisive result. The final score of 3-0 aligned with the most likely 2-1 outcome, yet the team’s strong home performance secured a clean sheet and a clear victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.61
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.84
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 18.2% · @ 5.09
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.13
2.93
1.27
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (4)
2.50
1.25
1.50
2.00
3.50
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.08
0.96
3.15
1.15
0.92
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.13
1.43
1.00
1.44
1.25
vs Stronger (23)
1.26
1.13
1.30
1.00
1.23
1.23
vs Similar (7)
2.00
1.14
1.75
1.00
2.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.4%
@ 1.86+15.9%
Under 2.5
33.6%
@ 1.90-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.5%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-0
5.7%
3-0 ✓
4.6%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.6%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
1
5.7%
10%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
2
6.8%
9.4%
6.5%
3.0%
1.0%
3
4.6%
6.4%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.3%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.78 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Heart Of Midlothian is 1.00 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.26 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 6.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inverness CT
For 2.9 · Against 6.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.8
3.6
3.6
3.7
25.7
25.1
26.3
vs Stronger (5)
10.6
10.0
11.5
5.2
5.7
4.5
25.8
25.0
27.0
vs Similar (8)
12.0
13.0
11.0
4.4
5.0
3.8
25.6
27.0
24.2
vs Weaker (37)
10.5
10.4
10.6
3.3
2.9
3.6
25.7
24.7
26.6
% over line
62%
60%
64%
54%
56%
52%
76%
80%
72%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
46%
44%
48%
24%
20%
28%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.8
10.7
3.2
3.4
3.1
21.9
21.5
22.3
vs Stronger (39)
10.8
11.5
10.2
3.5
3.6
3.4
21.7
21.4
22.0
vs Similar (11)
10.4
8.5
12.6
2.4
2.8
1.8
22.6
21.7
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
62%
58%
36%
33%
38%
50%
46%
54%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
64%
67%
62%
50%
54%
46%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.8
Inverness CT
10.7
Dunfermline
10.6
Dundee
10.4
Morton
10.4
Raith Rvs
10.4
Queen of Sth
10.3
Ayr
10.2
Arbroath
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
3.6
Arbroath
3.3
Dundee
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.1
Dunfermline
3.1
Morton
2.9
Alloa
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
25.7
Dundee
24.7
Arbroath
22.9
Raith Rvs
22.7
Alloa
22.3
Inverness CT
21.9
Ayr
21.6
Queen of Sth
21.1
Dunfermline
20.2
Morton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
Under 9.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.5%
Under 21.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
1.13
0.47
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.84
0.36
1.31
0.38
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.29
0.36
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.48
0.30
0.40
0.54
0.54
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.25
0.25
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.80
0.80
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (4)
2.00
0.75
1.50
1.00
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.24
0.60
1.85
0.77
0.58
0.42
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.14
0.64
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
0.65
1.00
0.60
0.69
0.69
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.71
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €22m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€22m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €12m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€12m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €5m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€6m vs €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundee
Dunfermline
Arbroath
Morton