This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
1.25
0.75
0.57
1.50
vs Stronger (12)
1.25
1.08
1.67
1.00
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.72
1.11
1.00
0.60
0.38
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.0%
Under 1.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.6%
@ 2.18-8.6%
Under 2.5
65.4%
@ 1.66+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.9%
Under 3.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.8%
1-0
13.4%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
5.0%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.8%
5.0%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
15%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.8%
7.9%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
Ross County
0.97
ST Mirren
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.33 points worse than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (0.77 vs 1.10).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Kilmarnock
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Heart Of Midlothian and Kilmarnock are level in goals scored per game (both 1.03).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.37 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.37).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 6.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.8
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
For 3.1 · Against 6.8 · Total 9.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.7
9.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
27.4
26.2
28.6
vs Stronger (10)
9.9
10.3
9.2
4.1
4.5
3.5
25.4
26.2
24.2
vs Similar (14)
9.2
9.5
9.0
5.1
4.8
5.2
31.1
30.2
31.8
vs Weaker (26)
10.3
11.4
9.3
3.8
3.7
4.0
26.2
24.4
28.0
% over line
56%
64%
48%
58%
56%
60%
84%
84%
84%
% under line
44%
36%
52%
42%
44%
40%
16%
16%
16%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.6
9.7
3.6
3.4
3.8
23.9
24.9
22.9
vs Stronger (20)
9.2
9.0
9.5
3.5
2.9
4.2
23.9
25.3
22.5
vs Similar (30)
9.1
8.4
9.9
3.6
3.7
3.5
23.9
24.7
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
30%
28%
32%
52%
48%
56%
64%
72%
56%
% under line
70%
72%
68%
48%
52%
44%
36%
28%
44%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.9
Ross County
10.8
Rangers
10.5
Celtic
10.3
ST Mirren
10.1
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
ST Johnstone
9.8
Hibernian
9.8
Motherwell
9.6
Livingston
9.5
Aberdeen
9.3
Kilmarnock
9.2
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Ross County
4.0
Rangers
3.8
Aberdeen
3.8
Hibernian
3.8
Motherwell
3.7
Kilmarnock
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.5
Celtic
3.4
ST Mirren
3.2
Hamilton
3.2
Livingston
2.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.4
Aberdeen
26.4
Hamilton
24.6
Ross County
24.2
Motherwell
24.2
Rangers
23.9
Kilmarnock
23.9
ST Johnstone
23.5
ST Mirren
23.4
Hibernian
22.8
Livingston
22.7
Celtic
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.6%
Under 9.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.6%
Under 21.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.40
0.87
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.56
0.31
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.67
0.67
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.75
0.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.11
0.75
1.00
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.64
0.57
0.57
0.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.69
0.44
0.21
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.75
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.61
0.60
0.30
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
ClÃĄudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry KaborÃĐ17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry KaborÃĐ33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
ClÃĄudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
ClÃĄudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry KaborÃĐ0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
ClÃĄudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry KaborÃĐ0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €15m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€22m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €10m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€12m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€4m vs €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €3m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€6m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
ST Mirren
Ross County