Heart Of Midlothian’s defensive solidity is highlighted by an average of only 0.71 goals conceded at home, a figure that will be tested against ST Johnstone’s 2.2 goals conceded away to stronger opponents. The model projects a tight affair with an expected total of 2.1 goals, centring on a 1-1 draw with a 14.7% chance, though the most likely outcome is a Home win with 39% probability. The home side’s 1.71 goals scored per game and the away side’s 1.2 goals scored per game suggest a modest scoring window, and the predicted total of two goals aligns with the 28% probability of exactly two goals.
The favourite result is a Home win. The probabilities are 39% for a Hearts victory, 32% for a draw, and 28% for a Johnstone win. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 83.7%, Under 3.5 goals at 83.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.7% (miss), and Over 2.5 cards at 70.6%. The recent form narrative shows Hearts unbeaten in their last five, while Johnstone have suffered two straight defeats. This defensive focus and the slight edge in home form set the stage for a low-scoring, tightly contested match.
Results analysis
Heart Of Midlothian extended their unbeaten run with a 2-0 win over ST Johnstone, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 39% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections largely hit: Over 19.5 fouls (84.9%) and Under 5.5 cards (83.7%) both came through, as did Under 3.5 (83.2%) and Under 11.5 corners (78.4%). Over 2.5 cards (70.6%) also succeeded, while Over 21.5 fouls (72.7%) missed. The most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the predicted total of 2 goals was achieved. The match reinforced the home team’s strong recent form and the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.27
1.47
0.80
1.00
1.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.50
1.00
1.67
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.67
1.40
0.40
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
1.13
1.71
0.71
1.38
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.17
1.12
1.06
1.50
1.29
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.18
1.00
2.17
1.20
2.20
vs Similar (19)
1.42
0.58
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.2%
1-0
12.6%
0-1
10.0%
2-0 ✓
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.4%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.2%
7.8%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.29
Rangers
2.05
Aberdeen
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.76
Hibernian
1.42
ST Johnstone
1.37
Motherwell
1.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.34
Livingston
1.16
Hamilton
0.87
ST Mirren
0.84
Dundee
0.55
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.03 points worse than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.16
Celtic
2.03
Aberdeen
1.50
Hibernian
1.34
Kilmarnock
1.32
Motherwell
1.21
Livingston
1.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.11
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.89
Dundee
0.82
Hamilton
0.74
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.11 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.53
Rangers
0.71
Kilmarnock
0.82
Hibernian
1.03
Aberdeen
1.16
Livingston
1.16
ST Johnstone
1.26
Heart Of Midlothian
1.32
Motherwell
1.47
ST Mirren
1.74
Hamilton
1.97
Dundee
2.05
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.05 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 3.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.9 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 4.7 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 13.7 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.9
10.0
3.9
4.0
3.9
26.4
26.0
26.9
vs Stronger (10)
10.2
9.2
11.2
3.9
4.0
3.8
26.0
23.2
28.8
vs Similar (15)
8.5
7.9
9.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
29.5
29.2
29.7
vs Weaker (25)
9.7
9.4
10.1
3.9
3.9
3.8
24.7
25.1
24.3
% over line
46%
48%
43%
50%
48%
52%
84%
85%
83%
% under line
54%
52%
57%
50%
52%
48%
16%
15%
17%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.3
9.1
3.7
3.9
3.5
22.5
22.6
22.4
vs Stronger (20)
10.3
10.8
9.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
22.4
22.1
22.8
vs Similar (30)
9.3
9.9
8.7
3.6
4.0
3.3
22.5
22.9
22.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
52%
40%
60%
64%
56%
50%
44%
56%
% under line
54%
48%
60%
40%
36%
44%
50%
56%
44%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
11.0
Dundee
11.0
Hibernian
10.1
ST Mirren
10.1
Celtic
9.9
Motherwell
9.8
Kilmarnock
9.7
ST Johnstone
9.7
Livingston
9.5
Heart Of Midlothian
9.4
Aberdeen
9.4
Hamilton
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.5
Hamilton
4.2
Aberdeen
4.1
Dundee
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.9
Hibernian
3.8
ST Mirren
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.7
Celtic
3.7
Livingston
3.5
Motherwell
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.4
Motherwell
26.3
Rangers
26.2
Aberdeen
26.2
Hamilton
25.4
Kilmarnock
24.9
Hibernian
24.3
Livingston
24.1
Dundee
23.5
ST Mirren
23.4
Celtic
22.9
ST Johnstone
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.8%
Under 9.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
72.7%
Under 21.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
1.27
0.33
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.50
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.33
1.20
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.40
1.57
0.29
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.69
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.18
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.21
0.40
0.30
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.47
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.40
0.73
0.14
0.43
0.62
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.00
0.33
0.83
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.37
0.80
0.10
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €17m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €10m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€12m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €3m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €4m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€6m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
Hibernian
Motherwell
Livingston
ST Mirren
Dundee