Heart Of Midlothian are favoured to win, with a 57% chance of a home victory, a 26% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of an away win. The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Heart Of Midlothian, playing at home against a weaker opponent, average 1.12 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while ST Johnstone, away against a stronger side, average 0.75 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 88.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 85.8%, Under 4.5 cards at 76.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 74.0%, Under 3.5 at 73.6%, Over 1.5 at 74.4% and Under 11.5 corners at 71.0%. The model’s selection for the match outcome is a Home win.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with ST Johnstone snatching a 1-0 win over Hearts, breaking the home side’s unbeaten run of five. The pre-match favourite was a Home win at 57 percent, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away triumph. The model’s other selections fared mixed: Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Over 19.5 fouls, Over 21.5 fouls, Under 4.5 cards, and Under 3.5, all at probabilities of 88.3 percent, 85.8 percent, 74.0 percent, 76.3 percent, and 73.6 percent respectively. Over 1.5 missed at 74.4 percent, and Under 11.5 corners missed at 71.0 percent. The match delivered an unexpected outcome, with the underdog prevailing.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.91
Edge
+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.42
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone win✓ Hit
17.5%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 4.00
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.60
1.21
1.43
0.62
1.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.71
1.00
2.00
0.50
3.25
vs Similar (9)
1.33
1.78
1.67
2.00
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.93
1.12
1.00
0.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.77
1.06
1.38
0.57
2.21
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
2.27
0.57
2.14
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (19)
0.95
1.47
1.44
0.78
0.50
2.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.2%
@ 2.14+4.0%
Under 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.69-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
0-1 ✓
5.3%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
5.3%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.4%
5.6%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
ST Mirren
0.97
Ross County
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.47 points worse than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (0.77 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.03
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.07 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.15 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 5.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 14.8 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.5
8.7
4.2
4.2
4.1
28.0
27.2
28.8
vs Stronger (10)
9.9
10.8
9.3
4.0
4.5
3.7
27.1
27.8
26.7
vs Similar (15)
9.2
9.7
8.9
5.4
6.0
5.0
32.8
33.7
32.2
vs Weaker (25)
9.6
10.7
8.1
3.5
3.4
3.6
25.6
24.3
27.2
% over line
52%
67%
38%
52%
50%
54%
84%
83%
85%
% under line
48%
33%
62%
48%
50%
46%
16%
17%
15%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.6
9.8
3.3
3.8
2.8
23.5
25.2
21.8
vs Stronger (21)
10.0
10.0
9.9
3.1
4.0
2.1
22.8
23.5
21.9
vs Similar (29)
9.5
9.3
9.7
3.4
3.6
3.3
24.1
26.5
21.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
40%
56%
48%
64%
32%
60%
72%
48%
% under line
52%
60%
44%
52%
36%
68%
40%
28%
52%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.6
Ross County
10.6
Hamilton
10.4
Celtic
10.2
ST Johnstone
9.7
Hibernian
9.7
Motherwell
9.6
ST Mirren
9.6
Heart Of Midlothian
9.5
Livingston
9.1
Kilmarnock
9.1
Aberdeen
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Ross County
3.9
Aberdeen
3.9
Rangers
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.7
Hibernian
3.6
Motherwell
3.5
ST Mirren
3.4
Hamilton
3.3
ST Johnstone
3.3
Celtic
3.3
Livingston
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
28.0
Aberdeen
27.0
Hamilton
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.6
Rangers
24.4
Motherwell
24.3
Ross County
24.2
ST Mirren
24.0
ST Johnstone
23.5
Hibernian
23.2
Livingston
23.1
Celtic
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.8%
Under 9.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.0%
Under 21.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.80
0.43
0.79
0.19
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.43
0.33
1.33
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.38
0.56
0.21
0.86
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.82
0.14
0.57
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.63
0.56
0.56
0.20
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.79
0.64
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.29
0.67
0.67
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.11
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.36
0.62
0.50
0.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.69
0.81
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.45
0.43
1.57
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.84
0.89
0.22
0.30
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €17m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €10m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€12m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €3m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €4m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€6m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Ross County