The contest between Hebar 1918 and Nesebar is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. Hebar’s recent draw streak and a 1-1 result against Fratria suggest they are still finding rhythm, while Nesebar’s five-match run, ending in a defeat to Marek, indicates a cautious approach. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8% chance. Hebar, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded, whereas Nesebar, on the road, averages 0.58 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 40% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 31% for an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Under 4.5 (88.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.0%), and Home +2 handicap (86.5%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hebar 1918 win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nesebar win
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hebar 1918
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.50
1.79
1.25
1.44
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.80
1.25
1.50
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.50
1.60
1.90
1.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.40
1.33
0.67
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.43
1.27
1.55
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.4%
Hebar 1918 goals ↓
Nesebar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.8%
5.4%
2.2%
0.6%
1
9.2%
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.2%
8.7%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.3%
4.0%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hebar 1918 goals (down), columns = Nesebar goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Hebar 1918 is 0.29 points worse than Nesebar in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Hebar 1918 is 0.14 goals worse than Nesebar in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Hebar 1918 is 0.43 goals worse than Nesebar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hebar 1918 or Draw
68.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
31%
covers Hebar 1918 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 or Nesebar
71.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
31%
covers Hebar 1918 + Nesebar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nesebar
60.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Nesebar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hebar 1918, so a minus line means Hebar 1918 give that many goals of a start and Nesebar receive them. At -1, Hebar 1918 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hebar 1918 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hebar 1918)
Hebar 1918 -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.2%
Nesebar +2
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hebar 1918)
Hebar 1918 -1
19.2%
Draw -1
20.6%
Nesebar +1
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hebar 1918)
Hebar 1918 +1
68.8%
Draw +1
17.7%
Nesebar -1
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hebar 1918)
Hebar 1918 +2
86.5%
Draw +2
9.1%
Nesebar -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hebar 1918
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.25
0.75
0.83
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
1.10
0.90
0.10
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.65
0.45
0.64
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hebar 1918
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.64
0.93
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.70
0.50
1.00
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.78
0.82
0.91
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hebar 1918 · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan50%
Nabil Makni43%
Toma Ushagelov20%
Oleksiy Zbun14%
Atanas Kabov14%
Kaloyan Krastev12%
Dušan Vuković9%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Róbert Mazáň0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Yanis Guermouche0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Iliya Rusinov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo El Fattahi67%
Oleksiy Zbun43%
Yanis Guermouche43%
Róbert Mazáň40%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev33%
Ilker Budinov33%
Johan N'Zi33%
Branimir Ćavar33%
Nathan Markelo29%
Milen Gamakov25%
Miloš Petrović25%
Yanko Angelov25%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov25%
Martin Mihaylov22%
Nabil Makni21%
Iliya Rusinov20%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov20%
Dušan Vuković18%
Nikolay Nikolaev17%
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan17%
Atanas Kabov14%
Georgi Tartov14%
Sheikh Senghor14%
Kaloyan Krastev12%
Bozhidar Penchev8%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kristiyan Andonov29%
Róbert Mazáň20%
Iliya Rusinov20%
Atanas Kabov14%
Nabil Makni14%
William Fonkeu12%
Dušan Vuković9%
Oleksiy Zbun0%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Kaloyan Krastev0%
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Yanis Guermouche0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan33%
Yanis Guermouche29%
Atanas Kabov14%
Dušan Vuković9%
Oleksiy Zbun0%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Róbert Mazáň0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Kaloyan Krastev0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Nabil Makni0%
Iliya Rusinov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →