Hebar 1918, currently on a three-game losing streak, hosts Vihren, who have been unbeaten in their last five matches. The away side's recent form note suggests they are in good shape, having drawn their last match against Chernomorets 1918 Burgas. Vihren's away scoring and conceding statistics against stronger opponents indicate they can score at a rate of 1.9 goals per game, while conceding 1.4 goals.
The model favours an away win, with a probability of 50%, while Hebar 1918 has a 25% chance of winning at home and a 25% chance of drawing. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.3%. Hebar 1918's home scoring and conceding statistics show they score an average of 1.4 goals and concede 1.7 goals at home against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 83.1% and an edge of 11%. This selection has a high probability of success, suggesting a high-scoring match. The suggested picks indicate a high likelihood of over 1.5 goals being scored. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 50%.
Results analysis
The win extends Hebar 1918's run of four consecutive losses, but it was Vihren who ultimately prevailed, securing an away win with a final score of 2-3. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Vihren, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The model's selection, Away win, was the correct call. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 83.1%. The other model selections, unfortunately, did not come in, with Hebar 1918's recent form suggesting they were due for a change in fortunes, and Vihren's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches hinted at a strong showing.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hebar 1918 win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.21
Edge
-15.7%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.17
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Vihren win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.89
Edge
+19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
1xBet
2.96
Betano
2.90
Dafabet
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hebar 1918
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.63
1.29
2.00
1.56
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
1.58
1.83
1.00
1.83
2.17
1.83
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.50
1.50
2.12
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.13
2.25
0.81
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.67
1.08
1.77
0.77
1.55
1.45
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.33
4.33
1.00
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
@ 1.26+11.0%
Under 1.5
16.9%
@ 3.25-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Under
888Sport
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Superbet
3.20
Unibet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.8%
@ 1.88+11.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
@ 1.80-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
888Sport
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.4%
@ 3.12+9.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
@ 1.28-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Under
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.9%
@ 1.69+8.0%
No
38.1%
@ 1.98-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.73
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
No
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Unibet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 5.85+4.8%
1-2
9.6%@ 9.66+5.6%
0-2
7.6%@ 13.46+4.7%
0-1
7.1%@ 8.69+2.6%
2-1
6.5%@ 8.32+1.9%
2-2
6.1%@ 12.00+2.9%
1-3
6.0%@ 21.14+4.2%
0-0
5.4%@ 9.58+1.3%
Hebar 1918 goals ↓
Vihren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
7.1%
7.6%
4.7%
2.2%
1
4.5%
11%
9.6%
6.0%
2.8%
2
3.5%
6.5%
6.1%
3.8%
1.8%
3
1.5%
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hebar 1918 goals (down), columns = Vihren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Beroe
1.71
Dobrudzha
1.61
Montana
1.55
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Nesebar
1.36
Rilski Sportist
1.36
Ludogorets II
1.28
Marek
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Hebar 1918 is 0.56 points worse than Vihren in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Beroe
1.57
Dobrudzha
1.49
Montana
1.43
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Hebar 1918 is 0.56 goals worse than Vihren in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.06
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Montana
1.11
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Hebar 1918 is 0.53 goals worse than Vihren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hebar 1918
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.86
1.07
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.08
0.67
1.00
1.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
1.00
1.12
0.10
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.94
0.44
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.42
0.62
0.31
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.00
2.33
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hebar 1918
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.43
0.93
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.75
0.33
0.83
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.61
0.50
1.00
1.10
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
1.31
0.38
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.04
0.67
1.15
0.46
0.91
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.1%
1.26
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+11.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (37)
€11m
CSI (46)
€9m
LI (41)
€9m
DOB (38)
€8m
MON (42)
€6m
FRA (39)
€4m
H1 (46)
€4m
Y2 (30)
€4m
VIH (39)
€3m
PB (39)
€3m
EVT (38)
€3m
C1B (33)
€3m
MAR (39)
€2m
LGO (37)
€2m
SP (34)
€2m
SS (41)
€2m
Hebar 1918 and Vihren have a similar squad value (both €4m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Nesebar
Yantra 2019
Spartak Pleven
Montana
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Marek
Beroe
Ludogorets II
Rilski Sportist
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad